London has popped.


Just back in Ireland after over a decade in London.

Walked around the City this week. From the Shard to Liverpool Street it is construction on steroids. Canary Wharf the same.

I am hearing of discounts on apartments - as in the 750k 1 bed is not £650k.

Denial is strong. No one I spoke with could see Brexit having a material impact…

It is Dublin '06 - the run for the gates will start with the 35% Carney warning.

Sad times.


The Times is not buying Carney’s warnings: … -5rd6fp25m

The Times asked the “experts” i.e. a bunch of estate agents who all agreed it couldn’t happen and preferred to whistle past the graveyard.


Well …


Christ, “believe the worst case scenario”. That’s barely Metro-quality reporting.


Bank valuations on London residential are down 10-15% from 2 years ago.
Houses under c. £1.5m in south London are being marketed at at least 15% discount to 2016 asking prices to gain traction - who knows what they will sell for. Flats south of the river are nearly impossible to sell unless they are very affordable to first time buyers.

Carney’s worst case scenario may be just that, but its half way there already.


More signs of weakness in London market … rty-prices

Good to know we’re Brexit-proof :angry:

#208 … empty-4312

The last time I was in London the vertical ghost estates were as blatantly obvious as our own surplus back in 06. Loads of “exclusive living” sales banners hanging off the side of glass apartment blocks that had remained empty since the year before when they completed.

I won’t be surprised if the foreign buyer isn’t as big a factor in the market than institutional investors like pension funds.


#210 … -1.6759335

If he did get a 30% cash discount it must be ringing alarm bells all over the place.

#211 … s-ONS.html
Prices in many parts of South Dublin are well ahead of the London average: … 5-Dec2018/
Because nothing says global money magnet like Goatstown (€671k).


London mansions are bargains - grab yours now! … 27451.html

The report belies the headline. There was a 40% increase in home sales at the very top of the market i.e. 15 Million pound plus. For the first time, more was spent on these top-end houses than on the next bracket (5 - 15 Million). So, the super-rich are still buying London but run of the mill sheiks and drug lords are staying away.

Another key element of the story is changing: the pound has strengthened against the Euro and the dollar over the past two weeks. Can any Pinster explain that? The chances of no Brexit have increased but the chances of a no deal Brexit or PM Corbyn (!) have increased far more.


London’s cut-price mansions: expect more deep discounts … 76ca5216eb via @financialtimes

notice anything??


Mao price cuts coming?


The Wharhol is most likely not the original and doesn’t come with the property


The original wasn’t in that style.


you’re 70% right, 30% wrong


Looks like a Ren Hong

#219 … 016697f225


Could Brexit be the pin that bursts London’s bubble? The FT article shows how dependent London is on foreign, mainly Asian, buyers. There is a huge overhang because so much was sold off the plans (sound familiar?). The recent downturn in prices has not turned the international buyer off London yet; there are always bargain hunters. Sterling has lost 15% against the dollar but that adds to the bargain narrative for Asian buyers.

But a crash out Brexit changes the narrative - then the buyers will realise that the downward trends are structural, not temporary. Who will prop up the market then?


UK inflation ticks up, house prices in London fall by most since 2009

The ONS said house prices in January rose by an annual 1.7% across the United Kingdom as a whole, the smallest increase since June 2013, when Britain was still struggling to shake off the effects of the global financial crisis.

Prices in London alone fell by 1.6%, marking 11 months where prices have not risen.

The ONS said prices in London were down 3.3% from their recent peak in June 2017.