London has popped.


#181

Two more juicy points from that FT story:


#182

They actually admit that?! :open_mouth:
Now where have we seen that lark before? :angry:


#183

Have they started offering free cars yet ?


#184

Here’s a new UK tool which claims to show if your postcode is “hot or not”.

It compares the number of homes currently on the market in each postcode and estimates what percentage are under offer or sold subject to contract. Here’s the current result for London:
theadvisory.co.uk/propcast/ … utcode=N12

It doesn’t tell us how long properties are on the market, a very useful metric in the U.S.

The city seems divided with most of the central/northern areas “cold” and most of the periphery “hot”. Presumably, they can always adjust the standard so that half the areas are deemed “hot” but that simply shows the areas where sales are quicker than average. And even the “cold” areas have a claim - “market heating up” - without any apparent basis.

Still, a tool like this would be useful in Dublin, but I suppose this is just one more thing Eircode can’t do for us.


#185

Why would you expect Eircode to create such a property tracking tool?


#187

That makes sense :slight_smile:


#189

Interesting, but Eircode areas are far larger than UK postcodes and I doubt anyone will make the effort to track how long properties remain on the market based on Eircode areas.

After our €38m investment, Eircode still uses the old Dublin postal areas, it divides Cork City into just two areas (North and South) and Galway city is lumped into a huge area stretching from north of Clifden to the Burren.

Is Kinsale really the most expensive area outside the Dublin area? At 329,999 Euros, its median price is significantly higher than Cork City, North or South.

On the other hand, if New Dehli goes, can London be far behind? :unamused:

economictimes.indiatimes.com/we … 216644.cms


#191

Really ?
Eircodes are not based on or related to CSO small areas
Like it was pointed out, there are not much use in terms of house prices outside of Dublin
Take the postcodce H91. The median price of a house is Galway city centre is total unrelated to a house is mayo or clare

Its all related to London poop im sure

For the hellof it

theweek.co.uk/london-house-prices
Great that they can see 2 years into the future :unamused:


#193

cityam.com/289934/foxtons-sw … rket-slows

“Less visible transaction outcomes” is a very interesting way of saying they don’t like the trend.
Edit to add: It sounds like “less dry surfaces” as the ship sinks.

“Going forward”!!! And we have a winner of the “Don’t look here, look over there” Brian Cowan Award. :smiley:


#194

Foxtons is a good illustration of a general rule: investing in real estate agents is the worst way to bet on a property market. Canaries in the coal mine. Foxtons’ share price is down over 80% since a peak in 2014. :blush:

So why the recent uptick, in face of all the bad news?

Lombard in the FT dismisses a series of possible answers and concludes that

The brave/blind investors turn out to be fund managers at

Just the inscrutable workings of the invisible hand or could these fund managers have ulterior motives for proping up London’s leading estate agents?

ft.com/content/a7592d26-93e … 1e803ee64e


#195

Maybe Foxton’s own a lot of their office premises.


#196

No - if Foxtons had those kind of assets, their share price wouldn’t have tanked in the past four years.


#197

Countrywide, the UK’s biggest group of estate agents, is also struggling - its shares are down 80% since June. Now it’s trying to raise 140 M. Pounds in a discounted share issue but PwC warns there is a “material uncertainty” about its future if this share issue failed.

Estate Agents are canaries in the property coalmine because they are vulnerable to a fall in transaction levels, which happen long before prices fall substantially. In fact, as we saw during our bust, estate agents often push for price reductions in an effort to boost transactions.

wolfstreet.com/2018/08/03/uk-ho … -collapse/

And they face another fundamental threat: online agencies like Purplebricks (who have their own problems).
bbc.com/news/business-44721667


#198

House prices in London fell 0.7% in the year to June, the biggest fall since 2009, despite a statistical revision which resulted in price growth in February and April.

There is a mixed picture across London - e.g. Islington has bucked the trend - but prices in the prime areas have collapsed: Kensington & Chelsea is down 13.9% and the City of Westminster is down 12.1%. Prices in the City of London fell by 23.8%, almost one-quarter :open_mouth: , but that is attributed to the small volume of transactions. :angry:

homesandproperty.co.uk/prop … 23106.html


#199

5 years of London construction, 2013-2018

Vertical ghost estates?

On a recent trip I was staying near the Shard and there were a bunch of apartment blocks with big banners on them with the usual blurb about luxury living etc… anyway asking around I was told that blocks finished the previous year were still half sold.


#200

On a recent visit to a minor city in part of the former Soviet Union I saw a large billboard advertising London property. Desperation Stakes - the local oligarchs won’t appreciate their bolthole being publicized to the local 99% (coincidentally, also the percentage by which London prices would have to fall before the average local could consider buying :mrgreen: )


#201

That’s an incredible photo. I hadn’t appreciated the scale of development and impact on the skyline in just 5 years. Thanks for sending it catbear.


#202

Just back in Ireland after over a decade in London.

Walked around the City this week. From the Shard to Liverpool Street it is construction on steroids. Canary Wharf the same.

I am hearing of discounts on apartments - as in the 750k 1 bed is not £650k.

Denial is strong. No one I spoke with could see Brexit having a material impact…

It is Dublin '06 - the run for the gates will start with the 35% Carney warning.

Sad times.


#203

The Times is not buying Carney’s warnings:

thetimes.co.uk/article/a-no … -5rd6fp25m

The Times asked the “experts” i.e. a bunch of estate agents who all agreed it couldn’t happen and preferred to whistle past the graveyard.


#204

Well …