London has popped.


#121

The article does not suggest a stampede- unless a 10-15 year run down is such :slight_smile:


#122

Was chatting with a few old friends in London last week, one was telling me that a room for rent in their house got zero calls recently so the owner had to price drop to generate interest. My friends hadn’t been watching the market but it prompted them to look around and they tell me it’s a lot more affordable since their last renewal a year ago.

What was also interesting was their perception that younger footloose staff with EU passports were leaving the UK in droves. It seems the exodus of needed immigrants is well underway.


#123

Another exodus is expected too when Prime Minister May seals a historic trading agreement with President Trump, which is expected to include freedom of UK passport holders to enter the USA for work (and vice versa) and to be in place within two years, initial estimates are the numbers of migrants could exceed the numbers that left Britain after the US government passed the historic Homestead Act of 1862


#124

Well judging by the Facebook feed of distant relatives in the USA there won’t be a rush to Islamic Britain for them. Actually all the europe bashing during Trumps campaign may actually work against any such deal.

Having said that I don’t follow the Trump fiasco, I was exposed to him (not literally) in New York back in the late 80s and that put me off for life.


#125

Any reference on that? Two years sounds ludicrously optimistic for any such deal.


#126

I think the timeframe is the least optimistic aspect of that


#127

“arrrrgh, thar she blows!”


#128

Anyone know the reason Carillion collapsed (beyond ‘‘too much debt’’)?


#129

Carillion: Why did it collapse and what happens next?
independent.ie/world-news/carillion-why-did-it-collapse-and-what-happens-next-36489617.html


#130

Brexit was cited as responsible for a slowdown in 2016.

uk.reuters.com/article/uk-caril … KKBN13W0NL


#131

Razor thin margins and significant cost overruns on a few big project


#132

propertyindustryeye.com/fore … lan-deals/


#133

Average London prices are up 20% since this thread began, which is the same change as peak to trough after 2008.

Prices are 60% higher than that 2008 peak.

Just shows the futility of prediction.


#134

The OP misrepresented a comment from the chief executive of the Nationwide who said the London Market would “cool” which is what happened for the following year. The 20% increase since this thread began is almost entirely due to growth in the year from April 2015 i.e. the year before the Brexit referendum. Average London prices have flat lined since except for a bounce last summer.

Prediction is extremely difficult but not futile. Timing is the trickiest aspect, especially when central banks are pulling the strings :blush:


#135

The referendum itself was predictable in early 2015 since the commitment to run one was in the Tory manifesto. And the result was predictable because there are only two outcomes and one of them has to happen. And the consequences of an out result are predictable because why wouldn’t bankers and foreign money get nervous when the country is leaving a massive trading block.

So it was all predictable and yet it wasn’t predicted, because if it had been the market would have priced in the consequences and there would have been no uptick in prices after the Tory manifesto was out.

Brexit is a “grey rhino”, to use that new term. Everyone knew it was possible but they didn’t react appropriately, even those who could afford very expensive advice.


#136

Also to factor in the fall in GBP which would be impacting the return for foreign investors who entered before the vote.


#137

*“The referendum itself was predictable in early 2015 since the commitment to run one was in the Tory manifesto.” *

In fact, Brexit was an increasing risk for about a decade but it took most people by surprise because it required two major upsets - the Tory victory in 2015, which took the Lib-Dems out of the picture, and the referendum outcome itself, which would have been different if London’s transport had not been reduced to chaos by a tremendous rainstorm.

Brexit is still not a done deal and no-one can predict its effect on London’s financial services sector, the main driver of the London market. London prices have flatlined almost every month since the referendum and most observers think Brexit has held back price growth but the long-term impact will only emerge when the Brexit deal is done towards the end of this year.

“And the result was predictable because there are only two outcomes and one of them has to happen.”

I’d love to hear someone like Nassim Nicholas Taleb challenge your logic here. It reminds me of the nutter who predicted that turning on the Hadron Collider could create a black hole to swallow the world. He argued that there were two possibilities - nothing happens or armageddon - and therefore there was a 50/50 chance of armageddon!


#138

I wouldn’t. He’s a complete cockwomble.


#139

Well we heard similar arguements continually in Ireland 2002-2008. Eventually it blew. How woulc the UK housing market fare if their substantial budget deficit had to dissappear tout suite?


#140

Right, but “we” is biased towards predictability by one easy call.

Do I need to reference the Pin threads on Australia, NZ and China?

Sure, every market has a downturn eventually, but that’s not a prediction.

I’m not claiming any special skills here, quite the opposite. I’ve miscalled the UK market several times in my life, to my considerable financial disadvantage.