This thread started in 2014, and referenced an article from 2008. So, it wasn’t a great call when it started. But now, I believe, we are definitely in down-turn territory in London. (I am, btw, still bullish on the Dublin/Ireland housing market.)
A very good point but having moved to oz for a few years after the bust in Ireland I was left in no doubt that OZ and NZ avoided the western economic crash by very firmly hitching their wagons to China after 08, its essentially a bubble sitting on top of the Chinese bubble, so it’s the Chinese demographics that need watching.
Chinese investment clubs have been buying from Sydney to Vancouver to Manchester, just like syndicates of amateur investors from small Irish towns bought apartment blocks in an eastern european countries where none of them had even visited!
It does all seem to have gone to his head. From betting on outside probabilities and winning, to arguing with history.
Fitch predicts London prices will flatline again this year and only Greece will do worse in the EU. Ireland will rise another 10%
ft.com/content/56f21234-ff6 … 0ad2d7c5b5
The FT scrutinises the market in one fashionable area of London:
“In a very strong market, Fulham tends to act like prime central London,” said Lucian Cook, Savills’ director of residential research. “When the market conditions weaken it tends to look a lot more like south-west London, and that’s what’s happening.”
"More than half of the 1,900 ultra-luxury apartments built in London last year failed to sell, raising fears that the capital will be left with dozens of “posh ghost towers”.
The swanky flats, complete with private gyms, swimming pools and cinema rooms, are lying empty as hundreds of thousands of would-be first-time buyers struggle to find an affordable home.
The total number of unsold luxury new-build homes, which are rarely advertised at less than £1m, has now hit a record high of 3,000 units, as the rich overseas investors they were built for turn their backs on the UK due to Brexit uncertainty and the hike in stamp duty on second homes."
"sales of new homes in London fell by a fifth over the last three months of 2017 compared with the previous quarter. “New starts on site also fell by a fifth, but starts still out-paced sales … so the number of unsold units continues to grow.”
Mis-match of supply and demand, Londoners looking for affordable housing, developers dreaming of foreign billionaires. Painful adjustment coming.
Never happen here, of course
If London property drops much then it will not help the narrative that they are doing fine since the Brexit vote…I suspect unless Corbyn gets in nothing will change much as they will continue to lie empty.
From what I’ve been hearing, some investors have zero interest in occupying or even fitting out properties, they just want the “bricks & mortar” to act as a physical investment. It’s when they start bailing out, that’s the time for other investors to worry.
Flippers are more volatile that BTL investors who are far more volatile than owner-occupiers but “hot money” is the most volatile of all. If they get burnt, they could leave overnight and never return - even to London, the global leader in the field.
More Leo-nomics at work in London. Never does it occur to anyone that the house prices are too goddam high, not least the money saving expert Martin Lewis. But if 27 year old middle income workers stop luxuriating in £4.50 dinners in their canteen, that dream 1 bedroom flat shining on a hill in Tooting may be realised.
I’m not sure if this generation has the stamina to keep putting up with this garbage forever, some will pop eventually.
FT reports London asking prices discounted heavily and actual prices in prime areas are down from 2014 peak.
“Prices per square foot in prime London have fallen 5 per cent since their 2014 peak while in the most expensive “prime central” areas they are down 11 per cent.”
London has a glut of posh homes for sale
ftalphaville.ft.com/2018/02/08/ … -for-sale/
Comments are good as usual. This is my favourite.
Last line of that article suggests the British are paying themselves 2.5% pay rises. But inflation is measured at 3%, so they are still down. At least wages are *unusually *outpacing house prices. Lucky sods.
Price rises still up in the Northwest with Blackburn the highest, so what’s that then, an extra £500 this year on the average terrace?
Manchester is looking seriously dodgy with empty apartment blocks.
I recall a lot of people criticizing NAMA for selling London property (e.g., Battersea) too soon. If they’d held on till now, they probably couldn’t shift it at all.
Surely you aren’t suggesting that Mick Wallace has called the property market badly…
Both of 'em short-changed the taxpayer