Long, slow house price crash - ESRI/Prof Kelly

Predicting that we could have a long slow crash over 8/9 years at 6-7% per year.

esri.ie/UserFiles/publications/20070628164646/QEC2007Sum_SA_Kelly.pdf

…and Soma’s work gets mentioned…

Can’t cut and paste reference, as it’s a pdf file.

is the quote, well done Soma! You are now an economic indicator! :wink:

Right lads, own up - one of you IS Morgan Kelly, now who is it??!?!

The man is definitely a Pinster, has to be!

Well done again Soma!

fair play folks - to Soma in particular - but to all contributors to this and the other related sites, particularly those who have been there since the earlier days. You’ve provided an outlet and an opportunity for the ordinary Joes such as myself to gain an alternative take on not just the property scene but current/economic affairs in general which has been lacking in mainstream media for as long as I can remember.

What an unpatriotic article :laughing:

Having only read a summary of the article, I have to agree with the Prof. Kelly’s assessment.

A protracted period of steady decline in prices is the most likely outcome. That said, there may also be an initial big slump in prices as the investors/speculators try to exit early along with the developers who want to reduce inventory.

The RTE news web site, rolls Prof. Kelly’s work into it’s review of the overall ESRI report, but finishes on

rte.ie/news/2007/0703/economy.html

Now, I sinceerly hope Berties “Pragmatic Patriotism Police” don’t come knokcing on Prof. Kelly’s door on the back of this report … Remember what happened to certain Dr. Kelly when he upset Berties friend Tony … perpahps the House Price Crash will be Berties WMD’s!

Blue Horseshoe

Absolutely. I was thrashing around for ages trying to find a forum for calm, rational debate on the subject of Property Prices and couldnt find anyone, anywhere, who saw things as I did, until I joined the Pin. We damn near fell into the trap last year, battered and bruised from the constant assault on rationality coming from Estate agents, Mortgage brokers, Banks, the Government, builders, and yet we could see what was happening. Ireland has just suckered a huge number of its citizens into the biggest and cruellest Pyramid Scheme we have ever known. And the people who have done this to us, the twisted gombeen men, puppets of Paddy the Plasterer, will get away with it. We all know, and the Dept of Finance knows, and the Taoiseach knows, that this is now upon us. We are in a slow death spiral.

So - in a TRUE patriotic spirit - how do we get back ? Ok, we have to bear the consequences of the collapse of this great house of cards, but how do we as a society get ourselves back together ? How do we make the best of this ?

Should I be writing this in a different thread…

Bertie

send your Special Branch in to rattle these subversives, NOW!

With regard to the content of the article, Professor Kelly states that construction accounts for 15% of Irish GDP. I seem to recall a figure of 23% being quoted on this site. Firstly, does anyone know which is correct and secondly, if the higher figure is closer the mark, does that mean that Professor Kelly figures may understate the scale of the consequences of a construction slow down?

Was it not 23% for all construction and 15% for residential property?

Might be wrong on this.

This is now the official Morgan Kelly / ESRI long, slow thread…

Any more duplicates will just be deleted rather than locked…

[Expletive deleted] you. You [Expletive deleted].

Seriously phoenix, chill out. Moderating this circus must be hard enough as it is without personal abuse being thrown in.

O.K. we simply don’t need comments like this!! It’s probably best, Phoenix N, if you leave now…

Hold on now, he said he wasn’t coming back before how would we believe him this time?

Seriously folks, I can take a bit of abuse, I really don’t care… I have certainly much bigger fish to fry than phoenix on a personal level right now…

I’ll leave this up to the other mods… :unamused:

No, you are right, the 23% figure is for Residential, Commercial & Civil construction. Residential alone accounts for 15%, in ‘normal’ economies it usually accounts for around 5%!

:smiley: Hilarious I found that rather funny… now, rather than delete this comical outburst phoenix_n I’ll give you the civil chance to pm me with an explanation if you fel like hanign around. I think you’ve forgotten the consensus that over duplication of the “points” is not what PIN members enjoy. Once again MODing is oh so lite here.

ON others boards you’d be toast now, we might need a court jester you’re kind of warming into the role don’t you think? AH it’s only shagging forum… good long walk in the park man, life is too short.

MOD Edit: Can nobody spell “role” correctly on this site??? Ah, man… TUG

Cheers for that - I was a bit confused! Still its hard to see commercial construction holding up giving what appears to be the daily increase in vacant office/retail space around Dublin although Im unsure about the rest of the country. The NDP cant save everybody and with expectations of a budget deficit now becoming acceptable amongst mainstream opinion it would appear that there wont be as much cash to fund it as previously thought.

Just an aside - To Phoenix_N - Theres no need for that type of comment. We should leave contributions of that sort to such as the contributors over on Daft.Cheers.