Many immigrant workers needed if more houses to be built


#4

Wages, simple


#5

This is a real déjà vu; and don’t be fooled by the title of the IT article which “ruled out” open door immigration; the opposite was the case:
irishtimes.com/business/harney-rules-out-open-door-to-immigrants-1.261884

Proof, if proof was needed that FG has no vision that is the slightest bit different from FF.


#6

1000% correct. Same in hospitality and has been for years, I worked in a hotel about 10 years ago and the pay and attitude to staff is contemptuous yet there are regular media articles about how hard it is to find staff and how nobody Irish want to be e.g. a chef. 2 things needed - cut out split shifts and bump pay.


#7

Surely it makes sense to import less people from abroad so that rents and prices decrease while at the same time freeing up units over time?

Or is that just complete fucking lunacy?


#8

We need immigrants to build for the immigrants coming to build for the immigrants coming to build.

2004 is calling.


#9

The effect of constrained labour supply is wage inflation followed by reduced marginal demand.

In other words, less housing is produced.

Presumably the socialists on this thread would cheer this on as a win for labour over capital. Solidarity komrades! We will beat the bourgeoisie!


#10

An elderly person said to me yesterday in relation to the above **“It’s a right mess.” **

I thought it summed up the situation very accurately.


#11

I guess the figure we need to keep an eye on then is the percentage of the direct and ancillary labour engaged in construction. Wasn’t it something like 15% direct and 22% with supporting services involved back in 04-06?


#12

Number of dwelling completions is probably a good proxy for the residential bit, given that construction is consistently labour intensive.

We’re currently at 20k/year.

The numbers from the last “boom”:

2000 49,812
2001 52,602
2002 57,695
2003 68,819
2004 76,954
2005 85,957
2006 88,419
2007 78,027
2008 51,724


#13

Leo Varadkar and his government virtually guarantee at least 1 million migrants by 2040, that’s 45,500K or so a year.

In reality it will be more complex than this but let’s assume we build to natural and artificial created demand, what’s the aggregate demand expect total for the next 22 years?

Are we on target?


#14

That was the net increase in population, not migrants. Where did you get that from?


#15

Are you playing with Vernes machine again! :slight_smile:

… but seriously, you are right or are you?


#16

Ireland’s fertility rate is at replacement level, but life expectancy is increasing, so barring mass exodus there will be a significant increase in indigenous population by 2040.

I don’t think Leo really cares what colour the proles are. The way I read the 2040 plan it was more a signal to the civil service to pull its finger out with services and housing, plus a signal to FDI to pile cos there’s going to be sustained demand, plus Leo granting himself a license to go nuts with pro-cyclical spending. It’s the same old McCreevy shite with better spin.


#17

Well assuming that the Average native family has two children, they are not going to increase the population at all, so it’s either already arrived migrants who breed like rabbits, returning Irish or more migrants.
Cloning is probably not an option!


#18

That may seem obviously true, but in reality that’s just not how it works. :smiley:

There are lots of factors involved, but here’s one example, unrealistic but simple to understand.

Consider a society of perfectly fertile couples that has culled everyone over 40, and where everyone dies at age 80. A fertility rate of 2.0 would mean that every couple replaces itself. But nobody will die for another 40 years, so the population increases every year.


#19

640k - 1.1m population increase by 2030
about 450k through immigration at the high end scenario with the rest of the 1.1m to come from people living longer and increased fertility rates

thepropertypin.com/viewtopi … 5&p=927856


#20

The natives are below replacement rates simply because not all people get married and the vast majority who do only have two children, life expectancy has improved, but not so rapidly that the older are not dying off.


#21

Many immigrants needed if urgently required Spar shops and Burger Kings to be staffed.


#22

You have to get married to have children these days? :astonished: :astonished: :astonished:


#23

:laughing:
Not all married couples have children and neither do all co-habiting couples.
But there are a small minority who just plenty of kids, usually one per boyfriend while having many boyfriends. 8-