March Exchequer Statement … alysis.pdf … alysis.pdf … alysis.pdf

Revenue is still falling and faster than the government had projected.

If you strip out January, which was know for certain when the projections were made, then tax is 6.7% behind profile after 2 months

Total -6.7%
Income Tax -6.3%
VAT -3.3%
Corporation tax -56.0%
Excise -4.3%
Stamps -24.8%
CGT 92.7%
CAT -2.4%
Customs -14.7%

Whilst being €266m behind isn’t ideal the €225m spending reduction helps a little.

We still spent €10.7bn with only €7.2bn coming in over the first 3 months, March would have been a Vat collection month, for Jan/Feb… which isnt a great result.

Cant understand the CGT figures, if €106 is the take that would mean that taxable gains amounted to about €420m, I’d like to know who these people were/are.

CT would indicate either the number of companies forecasted is now lesser, or no profits are being made by those in business, which really is a worrying thing.

Will we make the forecast of €31bn, I wonder.

I see to remember there being some change to CGT/CT last year such that CGT was paid as it was due instead of being rolled into CT? So there are timing issues with the figures for both? I think May should see those figures work their way out? Can’t remember the details, though…

Will it as CT is due in May for 2009, I’m not sure if its all of it, ie 100% of liability.

Any tax people out there?

How could they roll into each other as they are two different rates, anyway tax person please.

Exptrapolating Q1 using the previous 3 years average Q1 as a % of total, I calculate the tax take will be between €27 billion and €28 billion

The year-on-year Q1 declines from 2007 to 2008 are -7%, -23%, and -15%

For VAT 0%, -18%, -13%
For income tax +5%, -7%, -10%

The total tax take will be down from €47 billion in 2007 to €27 billion in 2010, the major declines being -€5.5 billion of corporation tax, -€4.8 billion of VAT and -€2.7 billion in stamps and -€2.8 billion of CGT, -€1.9 billion in excise, and -€2.4 billion in income tax

but…but…but…havent we turned a corner?

But the majority of CT is only paid in May, how can you possibly extrapolate from a Qtr when the tax code isn’t the same as 2007 or 2008.

I suggest you revisit your analysis, another thing we are dealing with the here and now, 2007 was the top, we are more interested on the operational figures to hand.

YOY figures are fine… but you’ll need to insert the changes…to get a true picture.

Inserting a new assumption regarding corporation tax (that the full year 2010 will be 23% lower than 2009 (being the 2008-2009 percentage decline in corporation tax)) brings the total tax take up to €29 billion

2007	2008	2009	2010

Customs 266 248 209 166
Excise 5838 5443 4703 3973
CGT 3105 1430 542 326
CAT 392 332 254 232
Stamps 3186 1651 930 508
Income tax 13572 13177 11835 11171
Corporation tax 6391 5066 3900 3002
VAT 14497 13430 10670 9699
T&E 3 1 1 0
Total 47250 40778 33044 29077

But we had to borrow to inflate the economy… :unamused:

Some markets, stock and credit markets particularly, have come back a lot since the depths of the crisis. Capital gains may have been made and realised there.