Market View (Property Supplement of the Irish Times)

The Irish Property Bubble (2006) The Republic of Property
1

Falling stamp duty revenues may topple the Government, says Marc Coleman

Forgive me, for returning once more to the issue of stamp duty. I promise to speak no more of the topic in this column, the present article excepted. But this issue has, as of Tuesday last, assumed an even greater importance in our national destiny than was ever intended.

For as of Tuesday, stamp duty may really be about to influence the outcome of the next election in a manner that a few of us - including yours truly - have dared to predict it might.

What we didn’t know, but know now, is that heading into the election the Government’s record on public finances may stand or fall on how stamp duty receipts pan out for the month of April and - if the election is held in June - the month of May. If it falls, this is because, instead of broadening the tax base, the Government has allowed itself to become so dependent on an unjust and volatile source of revenue.

Being hoisted on your own petard is, I believe, the appropriate phrase :smiley: …

Now I don’t need to tell you about the present state of the property market. If anything, stamp duty revenues SO FAR are a mere piquant whiff of what is to come, reflecting a slowdown that was a mere twinkle in Michael McDowell’s eye. More recent developments in the housing market, i.e. January to March, are not reflected in the latest tax figures, but will be in April and May figures.

April figures are due out on May 2nd and may constitute a double whammy for the economy as, two days later, European Central Bank president Jean Claude Trichet is likely to announce - in Dublin no less - that rates will rise the following June.

ireland.com/newspaper/proper … 10509.html

2

What scares the bejaysus out of me the most is that if such a scenario becomes fact, forever will the** Stamp Duty** issue be seen by the public the legitimate & comprehensible reason the Irish Housing Market Collapsed, there will be no telling people :angry:

Everything but peoples actions will be blamed, Stamp Duty is becoming the Poster Boy Reason for the current trouble. I think Duplex placed a quote up here that sumed up the issue, were the blame is attributed to something other than human actions and thus absolving us all blame (to go a run riot again).

I can now clearly see how poorly we have been served by the influence of Christian forgiveness.

If the PIN could so one thing it would be to knock this SD myth-mania on its head!

RED-HERRINGS are subterfuge and this RED-Stamp-Duty-HERRING is a fucking JOKE-MYTH! Please let it be DONE & BUSTED!

3

Just to note something,
I think it is very unlikely that the government will do anything about stamp duty,especially if they are as dependendant as it seems on the revenues generated from it, so even the debate on dropping it seems all a bit pointless.

4

Does it really matter whether the masses blame stamp duty or not?

When stock markets roll over, many highly-paid “experts” are wheeled out to offer all manner of explanations, most are rubbish and never affect the outcome. The property market is no different.

Stamp duty was never an issue all the time house prices were rising. But now that they are falling, all of a sudden it is the fault of “this unfair tax!”.

For many people, the argument that house prices have been bid up to levels that are no longer supported by fundamentals has implications that are just too horrible to contemplate. It is much easier to stay in denial.

5

Good point!

If people can’t see this then they obviously cannot see how there is a serious MEDIA agenda pushing this issue. An agenda that has no applied logic or rational thats stands up to scrutiny.

If we took the same AGENDA driven logic that the papers are spewing out willy nilly, surely the abolishment of all income tax would work much better and be more equitable eh! :blush:

With falling prices how can Stamp Duty affect FTB, its a win winfor them as more properties are appearing under the threshold.

However those trading up (the already “propertied”, the middle classes for lack of a better term) are the ones who are bemoaning Stamp Duty. Yea its only a problem now that they can’t sell to trade up since the equity they were baking on (to be released by the next buyer-fool) is diminishing day by day (as the cat is firmly out of the bag, thank you ECB!) and now believe they should be given a temporary shot in the arm by the Government handing them the SD portion (causes thats what will happen) of the sale to get them out of a fix of their own making.

Its a quiet stand off, one I have never seen the like of before in the History of the State. Shhhhh… you can almost hear it.

6

Yes you are porbably right its too late. SO 2nd OF may IS A BIG DAY!

Just to note,

The agenda is clearly unmasked in the closing line of the article.

Of course there is no explaination as to how “changing” SD will remedy the situation. More Agenda driven throwaway journalisim. :unamused:

Perhpas they should increase SD. That would be the natural conclusion from reading the article AFAICT, right :wink:

7

This article further illustrates the agenda of the Irish Times. A stagnant market with few sales is worst for them. The would rather a booming market or slightly bearish market as advertising revenue would be strong in both scenarios. myhome.ie has a record amount of properties for sale but do they get paid for the properties on the site on the basis of how long they are up on site or is it a once off payment?

8

property section was pretty wimpy this week, only 18 pages. So much for the spring selling season!

9

I’m surprised stakeholders in the Indo and The Irish Times are happy to allow the Stamp Duty bullshit being trotted out day after day, especially the Indo hacks that seem to be more interested in selling their own properties than their journalistic integrity.

A stagnant market is surely no use to to any VI’s, all this bollix about the Stamp Duty myth is just prolonging the stagnation more than anything else and surely that’s bad for ad revenue?

10

I think it does matter - how else can we mature as a nation! The media and the politicians and even ourselves as a nation need to be exposed for the idiots we are! A convenient scapegoat like stamp duty ruins all the visions I had of this crash being the one God Almighty BANG that knocked the country into shape.

I had a visions of it curing corruption, sorting out tenants rights, planning laws just to name but a few

oh well…

11

It’s depressing alright. In about 8-9 years time, assuming a normal crash pattern, prices will have bottomed out and begun to rise. And a year after that, every damn fool in the country will be babbling about “property only goes up, one way bet, can’t lose on bricks and mortar, shure they’re not making any more land, property is my pension, and shure *Stamp Duty was reformed, it **is *different this time”

And the whole sorry saga will repeat. Nobody - even people that are about to get burned over the next couple of years - will listen to reason, everybody will insist that the cause of the 07 crash was Stamp Duty, and we’ll all reconvene here shaking our heads in disbelief as yet another bubble takes off - and I think that’ll be the *fifth *asset bubble I’ll have observed from the sidelines - while the bulls and VIs spin the exact same tired old clichés.

12

The stamp duty may be resolved in time, but will probably be replaced with a property tax of some sort to make up the shortfall in revenue experienced by the government, they may be reluctant to do this as it would devolve power back to the local councils, just like before rates were abolished. Only this time rates will probably be packaged as a so called ‘green environmental levy’. (a steath tax)

Our money-grabbing Government is really running a high-tax economy
unison.ie/irish_independent/ … e_id=15411 [free registration required]

The myth of a low tax Irish economy as farmers make up to €500K an acre from development land & the Government collects average of €100,000 from cost of every new housing unit
finfacts.com/irelandbusiness … 7319.shtml

Those wanting stamp duty removed should be careful what they wish for, they may just get it. If stamp duty were removed today, more property would be put on the market on top of an already high inventory, thus depressing prices further (supply vs demand), some sellers might benefit in the short-term, but any such gains would be clawed back over a number of years if you stay in the country. I reckon all the political parties involved in the stamp duty debate are simply paying lip service as regards removing it, because none have explained how they intend to make up the revenue shortfall.
The reality is that the opposition wants its turn at the till, after all there is no real accountability for public spending, so its easy to be generous with other peoples money.

13

You are absolutely right. It’s human nature and it’s been going on for centuries. You can’t save people from themselves.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraordinary_Popular_Delusions_and_the_Madness_of_Crowds

14

well if thats the consensus - leaving the country is the best option !
If nothing will ever change
there are places with tennants rights and less corruption less cheaper housing traffic better transport an actual quality to life and all the rest.

15

Heuristics (short cut thinking) is not unique to the Irish. In fact we can be forgiven for falling for the free money myth once. Its countries like the US, UK, Denmark and Holland who have had similar booms and subsequent busts (historically recently) who should be most embarrassed by falling for it yet again.

I think some kind of bubble memorial should be erected ‘least we forget’. Maybe a giant transparent orb atop de spike in O’Connell Street. :slight_smile:

16

Agree also there seems to be a lot of properties for sale for at or just below the nearest SD thresshold if these thressholds become ‘fuzy’ ie as FG sugest then to a FTB not sure weather to buy or not €317k no longer looks a good deal just as prices shot up to the higher thressholds when they were more important if there importance deminishes then a seller no longer has an almost free tax advantage for being under the thresshold so if ain’t selling you got to drop your AP further.

17

I love it. A homeless family and a suitcase full of burning money in a giant crystal bubble, right outside the Indo offices on Abbey St 8)

18

Like I said, the Giant PIN erected on O’Connel Street is our last and only hope.

Now of course the Issue SD is at hand. I stand fimrly behind 2packs Snap to Band theory as I had a simialr notion myself but didn’t come up with such a perfectly descriptive title.

2Packs “snap to band” theory of price falls, Brian Cowan missed a golden opportunity to delay slump

Well its playing out exactly as predicted.

The only thing you can never predict is who is the messanger or dis-informaiton agent. However predictably I didn’t bank on it becomming so much of an issue as that it almost seems like this eleciton could turn into a ONE ISSUE (Stamp duty) race. Thats what makes me so uneasy.

All those people who out there, yes them the voters en masse, are the ones also up to their eyeballs in debt so really its a rigged vote if you ask me simply on bias of the market/voters.

How can it be expected that a populaiton who has involved itself in such a massive pyramid scheme to suddenly & intelligently grasp all the issue and hand in a balanced objective manner, to for once in their lives, make an informed choice at the ballot box :cry:

STAMP DUTY MYTH is the MYTH-ISSUE that keeps on giving :smiling_imp: