May exchequer returns

Due tomorrow I think, Wed?
any thoughts from people? Will the crash get crashier? Cowen said last weekend that the fall in revenue was tailing off…

Was it May that the bottom fell out of tax revenues last year? If so, the YoY decline will look less bad. I expect the MoM will also look less bad as the rate of descent reduces.

What will be interesting to me is how spending is going… dunno if that is in the same set of figures? I expect spending to be further up against target…

Same release YM. Will still be dire for the gubbmint going into the UE figures on Friday

YM : Tomorrow at 1630h.
the path since the last few years has been (and htf can we put tables in here folks) as follows : So it was June that the wheels fell off the wagon bigtime. Last may was actually quite a good month… Myprediction for what its worth is another 2b down. Things are getting worse…

Balance Change Jan-07 1,691,107 Feb-07 2,194,661 503,554 Mar-07 1,860,956 -333,705 Apr-07 -638,407 -2,499,363 May-07 266,485 904,892 Jun-07 -1,427,112 -1,693,597 Jul-07 -1,334,034 93,078 Aug-07 -2,878,878 -1,544,844 Sep-07 -3,099,719 -220,841 Oct-07 -3,942,369 -842,650 Nov-07 1,581,467 5,523,836 Dec-07 -1,618,596 -3,200,063 Jan-08 629,916 2,248,512 Feb-08 -124,755 -754,671 Mar-08 -354,418 -229,663 Apr-08 -3,742,416 -3,387,998 May-08 -3,598,041 144,375 Jun-08 -5,648,138 -2,050,097 Jul-08 -6,712,957 -1,064,819 Aug-08 -8,424,810 -1,711,853 Sep-08 -9,403,931 -979,121 Oct-08 -11,012,983 -1,609,052 Nov-08 -7,894,761 3,118,222 Dec-08 -12,713,820 -4,819,059 Jan-09 -747,217 11,966,603 Feb-09 -2,084,760 -1,337,543 Mar-09 -3,720,745 -1,635,985 Apr-09 -7,316,388 -3,595,643

To format a table, use a proportionally spaced font (like Courier) or Windows notepad, don’t put any tab characters in (just use spaces to separate columns), cut and paste it in and then wrap code /code tags (with square brackets) around the table. PITH, I know, but that’s the way it is.

Alternately, you can take a screen-shot and upload it as a picture on a free picture hosting site, but you need to be a little careful to protect your identity then…

If last May was quite good, then I expect this one to be too. I expect the seasonal factors to prevail - perhaps no low VAT returns/reclaims? Perhaps no end of financial year tax reclaim on losses? (i.e. both happened in June). Or should I say, it will be spun as a bottoming out when ‘the reality of the situation’ is that there will be another pasting in June.

I expect that is true on the expenditure side. I don’t see any coherent attempts to tackle spending yet. Perhaps there have been and they’ll be announced after the elections? Anyway, I don’t see how rising expenditure can be spun as good news even if a temporary ‘levelling off in the rate of decline of income’ does happen.

(Yes, I have my bingo card ready…‘the corner has been turned’, ‘the only way is up’, ‘it ain’t over until the fat man swings…er, sings’!).

Biffo on the 9 news hinted the returns will be ok tomorrow.

So green shoots ahoy!
And just in the nick of time for the elections :angry:

or I could wait for you to do it , ya good thing…!

:smiley:
Hey, that’s my trick (to get grumpy to do my googling for me!).

Anyway, Mr. Cowen’s confidence on the 9.1 news does it for me. Income with the new taxes will be above or not much below last years figure and way above April’s figure. As it fuckin’ should be, given how much is disappearing from paypackets (just on what’s reported on the 'pin)!

I would imagine we are going to see some very healthy looking figures.

I would not trust them as far as I could throw Biffo this close to an election.

The test is how the May figures compare to the profile figures issued along with the supplementary budget in April.

Total tax revenue to April was €10,124M and the profile figure for the year to May is €13,494 i.e. total tax revenue in May is projected at €3,370M, compared to an actual total of €1,504M in April i.e. more than double.

Even allowing for the tax increases in the April Budget, it’s a remarkably ambitious target but that is how the Government plans to keep the deficit to “just” €13Bn. Any slippage at this stage will have serious implications as the year progresses.

finance.gov.ie/viewdoc.asp?fn=/documents/PressReleases/2009/bl084append1.pdf

finance.gov.ie/viewdoc.asp?DocID=5755

Biffo is getting putting himself out there a bit with claims that the turnaround is just around the corner, and if the May figures are not horrific he’ll add that as evidence that he’s right. Based on the news last night, I expect the May figures to be at least spinable.

I think it’s a bad move. The local elections are lost. At best he’ll save a handful of extra council seats that would have been lost. Overall they are going to be hit BAD.

Is it really worth setting yourself up to look stupid when the recovery doesn’t arrive as predicted.
The one thing helping FF at the moment is that before the last General Election FG and Labour were as clueless as they were about the impending crash.

Biffo seems to be giving the opposition a second bite at the cherry. Come the next General Election FF will still be claiming that recovery is just around the corner, FG and Labour will then rightly be able to point to FF saying this for months/years now.

The local elections in themselves mean very little. They’re a mid term referendum on a government in the middle of an economic crisis. I wonder what the result will be.

So why is Biffo taking such a gamble with them? It can only be that they have much more significance for him personally than for FF generally. He must realise that those few seats that he might be able to grab could be the difference between keeping his own job or losing it.

How very Bertie. Do what has to be done NOW to cling to power, and hope to god something happens that prevents you having to deal with the consequences.

Yeah. We’re in good hands.

-Rd

Cliff Taylor just about to discuss on Radio 1

And what did he say? :angry:

In a word; Ego !

Piece from last sunday business post,

sbpost.ie/post/pages/p/story … qqqx=1.asp

The May exchequer figures, to be published this week, will show that tax revenues are down by close to 25 per cent from last year, similar to the rate of decline in recent months.

While the state is still running a considerable deficit, the figures are leading to guarded optimism in government circles that the marked decline in tax revenues might have bottomed out.

Measures introduced in the supplementary budget last month will boost revenues in the months ahead.

The figures will show that the government has raised between €13 billion and €13.5 billion in the first five months of the year, down from €17.1 billion in the same period last year. >>>

This has been mentioned on a few threads, but really, I’m getting tired of all this talk of bottoming out.

Whoop-de-fucking-doo! The incredible rate of collapse is slowing. That isn’t bottoming out. Bottoming out is when the falls STOP. That’s what the bottom means.

Bottoming out is the buzzword that has been introduced to replace Soft Landing and all the other positive spin crap that people have been trying to put in this mess.

If a person loses their job and their salary goes from 1000 euro a week to 200 euro a week, they don’t hop out of bed the following week see that the dole is still 200 a week and celebrate that the collapse in their income is “bottoming out”

Yesterdays RTE News…Good News from the Motor Trade…the decline in motor sales is itself declining. For the love of god cop yourselves on.

Let’s shut down the economy for a few weeks, force everyone to stay at home. You can’t get much more bottomed out than that.

It’s depressing that after all the shit that was talked and published about the boom, the same morons are reporting on the bust, and they don’t seem to have learned a damn thing.

-Rd

Couldnt agree more.

+90,000,000,000

+1

You nailed it right there with those comments :angry: