I guess reaching zero sales is bottoming out isn’t it? Can’t go much lower!
Would that not be bottomed out as opposed to bottoming out?
Tax revenues are not even across the year. Significant VAT returns only come every 2nd month, and May is a VAT month. Plus the bulk of Corporation Tax and Capital Taxes come in October/November with circa 25% of total tax revenues coming in those months.
In “magic positive spin” land yes.
In “oh shit do I have a job today” land bottoming out is:
“crap the economy is still bouncing along sideways.
It’s been 3 years, when is this shit gonna end?”
Maybe what’s happening is that the bust is having a soft landing.
Some cosmic parachute has oppened to slow our fall to earth.
Of course, parachutes don’t stop you falling.
You still have to revert to your mean altitude (solid ground).
the numbers are out
YTD deficit is now -10bn
tax take for the five months is 13.5bn, hard to see us reaching 30bn for the year on this kind of trajectory
Press Statement regarding…
I agree I think we will be very lucky to hit the 30b mark by year end, so that makes only a mere 30b to borrow…I wonder how long before the markets realize we are robbing peter and paul…
so let’s divide that by 5:
13,529,282 / 5 = 2,705,856.4 per month so far
and he wants to see 34.4 billion which is:
34,000,000 / 12 = 2,833,333.33
so on average, we’re down a good chunk (considering we’ve talking about billions)
so anyway, what he want’s is 34,000,000 but what we got so far is 13,529,282 so we need:
34,000,000 - 13,529,282 = 20,470,718
and over the remaining 7 months, that works out to be:
20,470,718 / 7 = 2,924,388.29
Jaysus lads, The Minister for Finance, Mr. Brian Lenihan T.D. is pretty much saying we’re gonna be back on track starting next month! Money is gonna be flowing back in!
anyway… back in reality… let’s carry forward the average and see where we will probably end up (if not in a worse position) at the end of the year:
2,705,856.4 x 12 = 32,470,276.8. So, if that is right, roughly 1.5 billion more in the red than he thinks.
anyone know anything about how the year usually pans out to help get that guess more accurate?
yeah, Oct/Nov are the big CAT/CGT/CT months
except for this year (as no-one is making profits anywhere, apart from Prozac dispensers)
I know everyone on this site is more clued in than most but two things spring to mind immediately
Even with the increase in PRSI and Income levies we are still 3.5bn down on last year and our deficit is 7bn more than last year!
It seems that all this talk of billions has watered down the impact of these figures - 1bn seems no longer considered a shocking figure?
To put some perspective on these figures - we’re 3,500,000,000 down on last years revenue and our deficit now stands at 10,587,643,000 or 7,000,000,000 worse than last year.
By year end we could be 32,000,000,000 in the red - it’s more clear than ever that most people either (a) have no concept of the figures or (b) couldn’t give a shit!
The numbers look OK against the profiles.
Revenue up 0.3% and expenditure down 0.9%.
This is a good link to get a feel for the amounts being talked about:
The Profile released in April , normally these are released a month after teh budget so this was 5 months late …only issuing when they had the April returns ready
January February March April May June July August September October November December TOTAL
€m €m €m €m €m €m €m €m €m €m €m €m €m
Outturn Outturn Outturn
Customs 20 38 55 72 92 111 132 150 170 193 212 230 230
Excise Duties 1 310 620 926 1,276 1,655 2,060 2,471 2,879 3,294 3,705 4,120 4,635 4,635
Capital Gains Tax 36 141 162 182 202 222 241 261 281 301 321 625 625
Capital Acquisitions Tax 19 42 64 91 116 140 163 188 213 237 263 295 295
Stamp Duties 50 154 201 251 315 384 496 585 659 773 859 980 980
Income Taxes 1,187 2 2,097 2 2,928 2 3,791 4,589 5,547 6,541 7,490 8,353 9,827 11,594 12,475 12,475
Corporation Tax 121 411 463 561 1,012 1,762 1,810 2,026 2,391 2,572 3,632 3,740 3,740
VAT 1,992 2 2,257 2 3,711 2 3,901 5,511 5,771 7,409 7,639 9,310 9,563 11,117 11,420 11,420
Total Tax Revenue 3,735 5,760 8,510 10,124 13,494 15,998 19,264 21,219 24,671 27,170 32,118 34,400 34,400
and the rest of the year
In other terms, we are down almost 14 LUASs, 5 Dublin airport extensions, or about 2,625,000 2004 Nissan Micras.
Apparently one or two billion out is now considered to be in the ballpark of where we expected to be.
Next time they need to increase taxes to find a billion euro or so for a hole in the accounts, we can just say…leave it there lads. No need to worry about that hole, sure it’s within spittin’ distance of being ok.
This is the good news Cowan was promising?
I’m writing to Websters to get them to change the definition of Fooked to “See Ireland”
Well we know there will be less taxes earned from people flying out of Ireland,
this will mean less consumption ahead of people’s holidays.
In addition, given that staying in a hotel in Ireland is MORE expensive than abroad many people will just skip holidays this year. This means less money VAT for the Government in addition to lower income taxes from the hospitality sector.
We also know that many people will have been discouraged from spending much money on home improvements given that they will feel that they may never see the value of the house reflect the work, so that should see VAT take a knock from hardware stores, along with income tax from employees. Of course, if the recent reports of an increase in viewing numbers translate into purchases, that might change things.
Oh and finally, IF the good weather continues over the summer, BBQs will become more popular, especially in deckland, and this will see pub & restaurant sales fall, thus hitting VAT, corporation tax and income tax figures.
If oil continues to increase in price, we might yet see airlines such as Aer Lingus re-introduce fuel levies, making it more expensive for tourists to come here, so we could expect less income from this sector.
I would mention the motor industry, but I think the Government will see a rise in VRT from 2nd hand imports softening the blow from the fall-off in VRT on new cars.
thats only a few things that I can think of
ah come on this just isnt going to work, its time to make deep cuts, amputations, this is a fight for survival it really is
Yes! Next up!
Education, Social Welfare and Health!!! Bring it on!!!