McCarthy warning: IMF is at our door

independent.ie/opinion/analy … 01299.html

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He’s on Marian Finucane at the moment. Talking a lot of depressing sense to me.

I don’t get why he thinks having outsiders making the decisions is/would be such a disaster?

Surely, the proof of the pudding is in the eating at the moment?

I think it is more the credibility issue. The IMF has a hammer, so nails will be the policy. People don’t perform well when being nailed. On the other hand, if you can make the changes willingly without the IMF, future outcomes will be better. It is the ‘buy-in’ rather than ‘imposed’, I think that is at issue. If we can’t do the buy-in, then it will be imposed, but the imposed could cause more damage in the long run. That ‘could’ is a risk element.

Now, personally, I don’t think the body politic is capable of either leading the country out of this…

We’ve had red flashing lights since March 2007 (42 months).

We’ve had all the klaxons blaring since October 2008 (24 months).

We’ve had an eerie quiet since October 2010 (1 month).

The game is up.

No budget now, no matter how “savage”, can change the inevitable.

It’s all a Kabuki play.

Colm should be preparing the ground for our new German overlords instead of pretending we still have some options.

Colm is a pin in the hole sometime stockbroker fiancial wizard ; who for some years has found the warm seat of a publicly funded academic chair in UCD so much more to his liking. Probably fucked up his own prviate penion with all that buccaneering nous of his and as he eases into his retirement and his UCD pension, he will milk the talk show and newsprint circuit with his ad nauseum mixture of generic right wing shite. In very good company on that show with Killeen, Parlon et al. The ‘responsible’ conscensus of unspeakable fuckwits is now the clear official message of the establishment.

the vibe I have typically gotten is ideology over practicality as in there’s nothing very different between now and 5 years ago, really.

Perhaps. And yes, at least since the guarantee, the outcome has been reasonably clear, barring a miracle.

I disagree that we don’t have options. The path is set, it is up to us to decide who will walk us along it. I don’t see that the amount that has to be saved will change, except for it to be more. I don’t see that the timescale will change, except for it to happen more quickly. The question the becomes whether it matters who does it. I think it does, in the sense that in future we might have a movement away from gombeenism. It is blind optimism on my part, as I don’t see much evidence for it. Is it worth hoping for? I think so.

+1

Where is the actual 'door ’ ? Who answers it ? Is it the same person who is ’ staring into the abyss ’ ?

What are the practical implications for people generally of the IMF “arriving” in Ireland?
There is a lot of talk about this, but not much on what the specifics might be including how it would be sanctioned, agreed, legally implemented and ultimately, the likely implications for people living in Ireland.

To summarize, not good i.e. BAD.

However this sub forum was started in June 2009 by myself. We have 122 topics on the issue. This being one. I think its well covered throughout a few times over. Have a back read of the older threads and I think you’ll history is littered with the consequences of an IMF intervention.

i presume as part of the budget they will announce they are selling every state asset at knockdown prices to Obriens and desmonds of this world. No doubt goldman sachs and Jabba the Hutt will be cheering this firesale to the rafters. Theres a fair bit to be sold

water
toll every road to every village
ESB
Coillte
Bord na mona
fishing rights
national parks
rte
Islands off the West Coast
VHI
privatise prison, medical facilites
sell off third level colleges ? ( does the state own them or just pay for them?)
the airports
Luass
bus routes
rail

the list goes on and on, and if lenny doesnt do it the IMF will tear the infrastructure apart as soon as they hit the tarmac

Argentina under Menem sold absolutely everything with a few kickbacks for the politicians, no doubt the same will happen here :sick:

unless the people wake up…

The “we have no options” line misses the key difference with Ireland. A large part of the populace can and will leave if existence here becomes too miserable. Applies particularly if the education system is attacked or taxes become unbearable. Still a ways to go on both fronts.

+1

The large Irish propensity to emigrate (labour mobility!) is what makes us economically and politically different from most other European countries. The French don’t emigrate, they riot.

The Icelanders have a history of emigration too.

They haven’t left en masse - even though they’re “living the dream”.

I read yesterday in the Sunday Times that the Irish Government has pledged to the EU that the budget deficit will be less than 10% of GDP. Kiberd estimates that to achieve that number with confidence the cut in December will need to be 7bn.

This is the first time I have seen this “pledge” mentioned and that 7bn number is massive.

Over the past two years every now and then I get a feeling of acceleration in the decline, this weekend I really felt it by reading some of the stuff in the papers. I feel property is heading for another big adjustment.

Also - I think McCarthy is very practical and straight talking, yes he was used as an instrument to soften up the electorate with an bord snip nua but I believe he has credibility and is listened to because he does not sugar coat the issues.