Milestone - Ranelagh 3beds all under 1m

I’ve been keeping a little survey on 3 bed Ranelagh terraced houses since June 2008.

This week for the first time all of those available (on myhome - 8 in all) were asking less than €1m. 75% (6 of the 8 ) are asking less than 800k and the median price is 695k.

In June 2008 there were 11 houses available, only 5 were asking less than 1m, and 1 (9%) was asking less than 800k. The median price was 1m.

In December 2008 there were 16 houses available, 11 were asking less than 1m, and 6 (38%) were asking less than 800k. The median price was 875k.

In June 2009 there were 16 houses available, 15 were asking less than 1m, and 10 (63%) were asking less than 800k. The median price was 750k.

I’m not interested in buying in Ranelagh - just curious to see how ‘sticky’ the prices of ‘trophy’ houses are. They do seem to be ‘stickier’ than most but there is still a relentless downward motion with one exception - there was a consistent rise over June and July with the median asking price risng from 695k in May to 795k in July but all of this movement has now been wiped out.

Looking at the ‘sale agreeds’ on myhome it seems that good houses (area and condition) priced at around 800k move relatively quickly. The cheapies at <600k tend to be in worse condition or on the fringe areas of Ranelagh and don’t seem to move much at all.

Ranelagh is different. Seriously, it is a most peculiar market. Above all, incredibly few properties come up for sale in Ranelagh. Correct me if I’m wrong Mike, but Daft has had the same 30 or so properties for sale in Ranelagh for about a year. Occasionally, a good place at a “good” price comes and goes quite quickly, but Ranelagh is not like other areas with a constant churn of places.

I suspect there is a chance Ranelagh is quite an exceptional area in all Dublin. The proximity to town, but with the suburban feel, the great amenities, the beautiful roads, the beautiful houses…all in all, nowhere else ticks all those boxes so I can understand sticky prices in Ranelagh more than anywhere else.

Agreed Ranelagh is peculiar - that’s why I picked it - I was curious to see how resilient prices could be and whether this would be a temporary effect. As far as I’m concerned the jury is still out.

I don’t track individual houses but there are quite a number that come and go from the list - the houses at the top and bottom seem to move very slowly but there is a steady streem of 2 or 3 passing through every month - some of these are sales but some are withdrawals - usually going in to the rental market until ‘prices return to normal’ (sic).

In general these are houses that people live out there days in so people probably spend about 30 years in them - that would suggest that about 3% turn over every year. I would guess at about 2000 3 bed terraced houses in the core of Ranelagh suggesting 60 houses per year. Turnover in the last two years has definitely been lower than that suggesting there might be a bit of a build up. Ranelagh used to be mainly rental (those of you old enough will remember the likes of Moyne Road which was probably more than 50% rented) and it may be going back that way. In the 1970s most of these houses were bought by civil servants who were the only people in a job that was stable enough to allow you to get a mortgage - and I think we can see that coming again. 3 times two civil service salaries won’t make the current prices so I think they will come down quite a bit further - even Ranelagh can’t defy gravity.

The median on such a small sample isn’t that relevant. During the time the median rose, what did the average do?

I wouldn’t be so sure about Ranelagh being different. It was very much an aspirational place for a certain type of person to live. I would say,quite a few over extended themselves,just like other areas.