Eerily familiar to the start of the subprime downgrades last summer. The residential crunch in europe is only now starting to have an effect on bonds. Given that seventy some percent (or was it eighty?) of US RMBS was sold and held in the US, does the same hold true for euro-denominated RMBS? i.e. are the wave of downgrades (does anyone really believe this will be an isolated incident?) likely to be concentrated in european banks? Could be see a lot of Tier 1 AAA paper downgraded?
Edit: Will this also affect the ability of the holders of those bonds to repo them with the ECB?
These were my thoughts too. This is going to be the European version of the subprime crisis. Spain was the most reliant on mortgage securitisation. I’d bet that most European banks hold big chunks of this stuff, whether on balance sheet or in special purpose vehicles.