More doom and gloom from the Sindo - 30/12/2007

Uncharted seas for those who’ve known only boom

Condensed version; The ECB are mad worrying about inflation. People have stopped buying houses. Its all Brian Cowans fault.

Why have the Sindo decided to print this stuff after it has been the cheerleader of “Property only goes up in value” for so long. Maybe it´s cause Ken and his estate agent buddies are on holidays or are not advertising at the mo.
I assume we can expect the Sindo to return to form and start lying to us again when the spring selling bonanza returns in 2008. Or maybe they believe the rubbish they print.

I wish someone would point out the Economics 101 that the ECB’s mandate is solely price stability while the US Fed mandate is price stability and low unemployment. Of course the ECB are “obsessed” with inflation, it’s their role and their only role to control it.

There you go, you just have. :wink:

Simple answer: Zeitgeist

The Indo is a popularist paper, they run editorials that people want to hear or at least often reinforce the common belief. During the “Celtic Tiger” era, we often saw stories reinforcing how great Ireland plc was, how property was a one way bet.

But public sentiment about the place has been changing over the last 18 months and significantly over the last 3-4. People now talk, not about boom, but about ‘slow down’, ‘crash’ and some of ‘recession’, I was asked over the Christmas what stagflation was and my barber, with whom I never discuss property or the economy started a conversation about how screwed he thinks EA’s and property investors are next year, his shop is next to an EA’s office so I suspect some of them are his clients.

Sentiment has changed. It may be that people are starting to see through the hype of the last few years, or it may be just be that we no longer believe that things will always get better. Couple that with the very, very, very serious problems in the Global Financial system and 2008 could be, to borrow a phrase, an “Annus horribilis”

Either way, the mood on the street has changed; Christmas 2007 may be the last big blow out for some time.

Blue Horseshoe

The sindo (and 90% of all newspapers in the Anglo Saxon world) break the first rule in journalist ethics:
what the public are interested in is not necessarily in the public interest.

Duplex: nice condensed version!

This article only re-affirms that the property market is the only entity that matters in the Irish economy.

In a time of doom, stability would be welcome, so why is Ruddock calling for instability in the public sector? such begrudgery!

A taximan in Waterford (who has a fleet of 10 cars) told me that Xmas 07 was a wash out for him and his crew. He said it was down 50% on last year. The next telling indicator for me will be the amount of new cars sold in January.

Normally new car sales are the classic real time indicator of an economies well being. However, this year with the VRT changes and Motor Tax machinations from July 1st you will get a very distorted picture that you could not pin down as an indicator as to the health of the economy.

Google trends Ireland ‘cars’ and ‘property’

And what … ermm sector should you be investing in next year?

Probably some of the most reliable data available. I wouldn’t believe half the crap that comes out of government publications.

It appears that around Christmas time every year, people stop thinking about property and go mad for sex!

Someone should tell my wife ! :laughing:

Couldn’t agree more Kerrynorth. VRT changes should have a mojor effect on people’e decision to buy a new car. Having worked in the metal industry , another thing to take account of is the effect of the credit crunch. Most new car sales are sold to muppets who nearly always take the dealer provided finance which is in general the most expensive. With ths credit crunch , this avenue of car finance could very well be closed off to many prospective buyers.