a little discussed here on the “Bankrupt Britain Trending Towards Hyper-Inflation?” thread GB:
the video link in this post is the same as your first.
I wouldn’t put too much weight on what Hendry says. He doesn’t come clean with his past performance, he’s selective and ramps his successes. Also I feel he deliberates obfuscates and complicates things for no apparent reason.
Having said that he could be right for the next few months. Over on the “cash-only property market” thread I’ve been deliberately vague in signalling ‘the Autumn’ as when I think US bond prices will fall, a lot, causing big problems, not least of all the coup de grâce for the Irish property market.
However, there’s the question of the short interim. Hendry could well be right here. US bonds look oversold and could very well stage a rally. He claims this may happen on “deflationary fears". Whatever. I’d say more due to the coming end of this equity bear rally combined with all the liquidity sloshing about. In other words, one more “flight to safety” to the USD, then the big kaput later this year.
For unsophisticated investors, and that’s most of us, this means, cash, cash, cash… in safe banks/mattresses… and a bit of gold
I agree, in the main. He did very well up to March when he was long bonds and short equities. Then he held onto this position (at least in bonds) for a good deal of the recent humungous rally in stocks and collapse in bonds.
His weakness is that he is so convinced about his assessment of the long term outlook for various financial assets that he tends to hold on to these assessments even when the market moves very substantially against him. In short, he allows his judgement of the long term outlook to override shorter term market opportunities.
That would be fine for a University Lecturer or financial pundit, but it’s no good in the hedge fund business.
Yeah. Peter Schiff suffers from the same blind spot, I think.
Peter schiff dosen’t trade on leverage or advise his clients to do so either. He follows a long term buy and hold strategy focused on dividend paying non-dollar equities and precious metals.
You cannot possibly judge a hedge fund manager on his performance over a month.
Hugh talking on the FT website (scroll down list of websites to his appearances with Gillian Tett on 5 July 2009):
One of the very top performing hedge fund managers this year - up 13% to July I believe.
Um… did you read the article three posts before you?
just saw the video clip missed the article!
A little bit of Hugh in a mellow and reflective mood …
Hugh Hendry compares China to Starbucks in this Sept. 28, 2010 audio interview on King World News
Property markets might be no higher in 20 years time than they are today?
Jaysus did no-one tell Hugh about LTEV.
Warning of a China correction.
Hugh Hendry vs Anthony Bolton…hedge fund wunderkind vs fund manager with a 30 year record of successful stock picking.
Could they both be right ? Hendry over 18 months and Bolton over 5 years ?