More Snow... soon?


#1

I’m hearing murmurs of forecasts indicating we could be in for some more heavy snow sooner rather than later, being mindful of Calgary getting lashed out of it with 40cm or more (yes I know it’s Canada but they seem to have gotten caught out badly).

If anyone has some good links as to veracity of such murmurs or predictions please post. Thanks.


#2

98FM have this badly written article


#3

Do you distrust mainstream meteorology services too? :wink:

skeptical-science.com/people/weird-weather-forecasts-daily-express/


#4

You beat me to it. Yer man is not a “forecaster”, he’s a quack whose fairytale prognostications are based on a mixture of sunspots and bolloxology. Why does anybody listen to this shite? You can easily find a one paragraph explanation of why chaos in weather systems prevents reliable weather forecasting more than a few days in advance, even using the most sophisticated computerised weather models. But apparently people want to believe that an unqualified diviner, who is demonstrably wrong almost all the time, can read sunspots like a carnival fortune teller reads tea leaves.


#5

You Bias-ist! :smiley:

Murmurs = inter-familia small talk “they say …” and I don’t forget the bookend snow event of 2010 nor the recent epic event and would like to be prepared in case.


#6

Scammer and charlatan


#7

It seems to be an old tradition. 180 years ago this year, a Cork man living in London published his Weather Almanack on Scientific Principles, Showing the State of the Weather for Every Day of the Year. By sheer luck he predicted “the lowest degree in winter temperature” for Jan 20th, 1838. The temperature fell to twenty below zero, people cooked barbecues on the frozen Thames, and Patrick Murphy became an overnight sensation, getting rich from sales of his book. His luck didn’t hold, though, and by the end of the year there were snide jokes about him in the press. Murphy himself blew all his cash betting on movements in grain prices.

books.google.ie/books?id=QOtFDwAAQBAJ&pg=PT62


#8

boards.ie/vbulletin/showthr … 2057917719


#9

I don’t see any snow in there?


#10

It just looks like a run of the mill autumn storm, lots of wind and some rain.


#11

Yup, northern polar night setting in → higher temperature gradient between the tropics and the pole → more energetic jet stream → more turbulent weather in the north Atlantic → autumn gales.

We should be relieved. Some of the freakish weather earlier in the year was attributable to Arctic warming and an unusually low temperature gradient, which gave a weak jet stream and left persistent weather patterns parked over us.