Mortgage drawdowns 2005 - 2009

Several posters have linked to these in the past. So I took a look
last night and I wonder is this the piece of the puzzle that we
have been missing ? The real volume of activity in the market.
Irish Banking Federation Mortgage Draw Downs. They claim it covers in excess of 95% of all mortgages issued in Ireland. Though I gather BOI have had a hissy fit of late and stopped contributing their data.
No info yet for 2009 Q4, but pretty interesting in the volume of completed sales in 2009.
Q1 - Q3 shows total house sales of 35,872 with FTB’s contributing 9,173. The only segment showing any growth at the moment.
Presume a very generous Q4 of 14,000 in Dec and that would give total 2009 transactions of 49,872 purchases for the whole of the year, less than just Q3 2006. The most activity is in re mortgages and top ups,
I’m rubbish at maths, but with a quick look, seems to suggest a decline of 60% - 70% in the 2009 market since bubble time.
https://img22.imageshack.us/img22/9291/ibfdrawdowns.jpg
All the info is here, I did a quick edit of the pdf’s to bring this info into one graph but all are well worth a gander
ibf.ie/Articles.asp?article_ … ory_id=109

Good work!

With only FTBs, investors and purchasers of holiday/second homes going to have any impact on the decline in housing stock.
I can’t see how the backlog is going to shift.

I see a shift to quality and better located properties but the sh1te is just not going to shift IMO

The sh1te is worthless, along with all the €10m loans for an acre of bog in Roscommon and half-built apartment blocks and all the other pure cack going into NAMA, and the 3-bed semi-ds built on flood plains that suddenly became worthless in December, and…

The real question - because it’s a given that the State as currently constituted and the entire Guaranteed banking sector and all the major builders and indeed almost every member of the “great and the good” in Irish society who were all up to their bollocks in Honest Berts Property Carnival are utterly insolvent and cannot be saved without hastening the insolvency of the State, and that a few tens of thousands of units will need bulldozed over the next 4 years - the real question is this:

Who among the natives is left to run this kip once our foreign overlords step in and take the toys away from the children?

dont know if you’ve excluded them, but remortgages and topups do not contribute to house sales.

only FTB, mover purchase and RIL.

just checked figures for 2009 and it comes out to 18k for Q1-Q3, or 26k annualised. i think your 50k estimate is way ott.