Mortgage growth nearly turned negative in October: CB

Residential mortgages grew by just €26million in October compared to an average €2billion a month in 2006. Mortgage growth is down to 7.6% yoy in October. The weakest since 1986.
rte.ie/business/2008/1128/credit.html

What was that about more sale agreed signs? :unamused:

What are the repercussions, if any, of negative mortgage growth above what low % positive growth inflicts?

€26m would equate to about 100 crap apartments wouldn’t it

How much was refis and payment holidays?

Cripes, just worked it out - that’s a 98.7% fall!

We’ve been watching this for the last few months. Scary stuff.

I was only half-joking when I said Christmas, I didn’t think it would happen till around May-July :open_mouth:

Id be wary of basing all the analysis on what the newspaper article says its worth looking at the actual report from the central bank also.

centralbank.ie/frame_main.asp?pg=nws%5Farticle%2Easp%3Fid%3D418&nv=nws_nav.asp

Particularily the
Breakdown of Outstanding Residential Mortgages spreadsheet, lots of interesting stuff in there

And Page 2 of this doc Sectoral Developments in Private-Sector Credit has a nice table showing we broke the 400 BILLION Private Sector Debt …
Wait for the Sure thats grand breaking 400 Billion private sector debt, our national debt is low bullshit… XX

What they don’t seem to be taking into account is people who can afford mortgages but are refusing to do so until house prices hit realistic levels.

Not until we see a sensible approach to house pricing will those of us who are able to borrow actually go to the bank and take out a mortgage. Well, speaking personally anyway.

Heres another few snippets Ive gleaned from those reports …

RESIDENTIAL MORTGAGE GROWTH
MAY €1.3 billion
JUNE €893 million
JULY €964 million
AUGUST €508 million
SEPT - €736 million
OCT €26 million
taking a very conservative Average of 200K per mortgage, thats just 130 mortgages in October 08, or 5 per county (26) !!!
Its Over …
PIN Admins was there a surge in hits in September, Id love to see a graph of mortgages against PIN traffic … seriously

More words of wisdom from the *Centra *Bank

Looks like another 2.2 billion down the swanee…if you bought in Q3 IMHO

I find these figures interesting … the 20 Billion in mortgages whilst a mad figure for such a small country pales in comparison to the 125 billion in private sector debt that was taken on …2.5 years
Private-sector credit (PSC)
2006 - April 276,150 MILLION
2008 - October 401,656 MILLION
Residential mortgage lending
2006 - April 101,911 MILLION
2008 - October 123,652 MILLION

Thanks for the link BoB.

Wherever you look in the report there are horror stories:

Money supply figures:

Er, that’s deflation folks!

agree with you there.

Going from €736m to €26m in a month looks wrong. It’s too big a drop. It would require nearly all lenders to stop lending on the first day of the current period. Or to put it another way, if we assume there was 25 working days in September, the average daily lending amount would be €29m. Given loans are approved in advance, I’d have thought that it’s extremely unlikely to stop completions falling in later periods. It’s a pity we can’t see this by lender.

Perhaps there was funny business going on in prior months, but the Central Bank should explain what has happened in greater detail.

Actually the figures are net. In Sept the increase was 736m but the mortgages issued were 2.6B.

These figures are very confusing to me.

Is there anyway that we can see exactly how many mortgages (and to what value) were issued to actually purchase homes in October?

All this “they are net” “they include refi” “payment holidays” etc etc. How much new lending to new purchases is actually in there?

viewtopic.php?f=4&t=15623&p=158423&hilit=+mortgage+lending#p158423

That thread had alot of info, it won’t tell you individual mortgage figures but will give you number of transactions, type of lending percentages and average size of loans.

Thanks TUG.

From that other thread it looked like the activity in the “movers” section was down quite a bit in Q3.

Q4 could well be carnage based on Octobers figures.

Yes the figures are net - Net Monthly increase in residential mortgages thats what growth is defined as , increase.
Where are you geting the figure that there were 2.6 Billion in residential mortgages issued in September . Your off your rocker mate…
We only have 147 billion in residential mortgages in existence, so your saying in September 08 there was 2% of all mortgages in existence issued … !!!

And I dont see your 2.6 billion for September reflected in the level of outstanding residential mortgages .

Residential mortgage lending
Outstanding Level
(Data relate to residential mortgages as reported on the balance sheets of within-the-State offices of credit institutions)

August 122,537
September 123,456
October 123,652

Read the report properly before you say I’m off my rocker.

Really?
So thats approx 612.5 million in interest payments a month (5%) + capital repayment on top of that.
Imagine what say 300 million extra in the economy monthly could be doing right now.
Sigh

Grumpy your 100% right… apologies… I gave the report another look and your not off your rocker at all, twas me… :mrgreen:
thanks for the kick in the arse , I needed that…stil my growth numbers are right for each month , just the NET component makes bollix of my analysis.

I think ,my brain wouldnt accept the fact that even in this climate there was another 2.6billion euro taken out in mortgages by Irish people in September…
I wanted to believe that people had finally wised up and stopped buying so I worked the figures to match this desire… alas not so…

Braghini i wasnt implying 147 billion was a low ‘only’ figure, far from it…

AFAIK the 2.6bn isn’t all that relevant. It can be mortgage switchers or interest resets.