Mortgage Interest Relief - The Dead Cat?

Wondering if MIR deadline is the underlying cause of the surge in Dublin? People who have been laying in wait are making their move pre-deadline? A lot like the car scrappage scheme, big rush on houses now before its gone - will 2013 bring the same collapse in demand as we saw with cars?

I can’t make sense of what is going on in Dublin at the moment, and this is the only factor I can put my finger on.

Surely prices will tumble once again once this is gone (repayment capacity will be cut, or is it being factored in by the banks??)

Anyone?

personally think it is now people sick of sitting on the sidelines…
also a lot of who waited are now having kids from what I see, this forces the issue…
MIR I think will be extended…

Plus the fear of missing the bottom

Is the fear of missing the bottom a result of this?

i.e. as more people race to beat the deadline for MIR, others looking on jump in for fear that this is the bottom?

This is very salient, imo. If you think of the cohort of late 20- / early 30-somethings who decided in 2007/8 to rent for a while longer…

Exactly right in my case, right house in OK area at right price and nipper on the way with good deposit saved, we pulled the trigger last December. Prices in the area we bought have if anything gone up a little or stabilised at worst so no regrets.

This is a point I make repeatedly - people buy (or move) for reasons other than money.
Many haven’t the interest or time in waiting for a bottom, however they are also satisfied with buying at c60% below peak prices.

Just a quick little addition to this.
With an anonymous internet forum such as this, we reference peak prices as a date i.e. 2006/7.
However, within social settings, many reference peaks via events, such as ‘that’s 60% cheaper than what John and Mary bought at’.

We’re all property anoraks in this site, but the general public arn’t.
So, rather than examining the micro and macro economic picture, many see buying at 60% less than their friends as a good enough deal and proceed on that basis.

Are you for real?

Why is that such a surprising statement?
There are alot of people out there who will see the reported “decline in the speed of the decline”/rise in property prices in Dublin over the past couple of months and think that the bottom has arrived. Some of these people will then jump off the fence and try and make a purchase.

This does not mean that the bottom has been reached or that they will not decline further in 2013 but just means that there are people out there that believe the bottom has arrived and will buy now. Personally will be holding off till end of 2013 at least.

Landlord who posted that statement is a lurking VI on here pushing an anti-pin agenda (keeping us all on our toes). When the bottom is reached (not for another 3/4 years IMO) it will stay at bottom for a few years. What Landlord and other VIs would have us believe is that when bottom is reached we’ll bounce straight back up again and it’s off to the races … again. 8DD

I know a number of others looking to buy and they are all trying to buy before the end of the year before MIR runs out. I wonder to what extent, if any, do banks factor in MIR? If they take it into account presumably what you can borrow this year will be reduced next year.
I have been told by numerous people “house prices are rising again” as if we have to buy NOW! I’m sure at least a few of the the current buyers believe that.
I would also think some of those sitting on the sidelines probably think this the bottom, or if not it’s close enough not to justify hanging around for another while renting.

I have been lurking here for a couple of years and know what side of the fence that Landlord sits on, :confused: I realise my post may have come across a bit sharp, but if you actually take his point in the context of the thread I believe it is valid. There are IMO alot of people willing to jump straight back on the property ladder XX again in a heartbeat if they hear in the national news that house prices are rising. Personally know of 2 couples who had intended waiting for another year or more who have now decided that they must buy NOW as they are rising again and don’t want to miss the boat!!

Along with the MIR, from chatting to friends/family/colleagues they are not too bothered if they buy and prices drop by circa 10% as they are spending on average €1,200 on rent per month and believe that waiting 1/2/3/4 years won’t be financially benifical enough to justify waiting.

If the CSO figures are positive for houses in Dublin next week, it’ll be 2005 all over again in the media…

I hope so. This is all part of the process. The quicker it happens, the better.

Yeah am hoping to get in before the relief ends. It would not be the deciding factor, but it would certainly help us towards making a decision on a particular house if one comes up between now and then.

Have been sitting on the sidelines too long, time is marching on (non-financial factors) and rent is not exactly cheap at the moment in Dublin either.

I would say there will be a further depression in prices in 2013 once the scheme is either gone or extended.

I’ve been a lurker on this site since it was started up, way back (so first post!) I also was a lurker on the askaboutmoney mega thread, and before that the old bulletin board. I’ve preached to people about not buying since about 1999, I never bought. Now however I am about to do so, I live in Dublin but will commute from outside (Southside), time spent in the car is the same traveling to work. I’ve put in an offer on a house that’s dropped about 60-70% of the asking price. We have a kid on the way so again deciding I want to bring them up in a house that they can call home is a big motivator.

I think we’re at the bottom or close to it in certain areas of Dublin, ie southside. I’ve looked at many houses across the whole southside since January went to viewings noticed a gradual increase of people looking. Quality of houses in general not that great for the money, but again south county dublin is probably where most people want to live.

Reasons I think we’re at the bottom? I work in IT, computers programming design etc. We can’t get staff anyone I know in a similar area in all IT companies are in a similar boat, I’m recruiting from the UK at this stage. There’s such a boom in IT it reminds me of 1997. This is going to bring other jobs not necessarily in the building trade, but equally there weren’t many jobs in building in the 90’s but I think everyone is in agreement that was where the country had a proper economy.

And my biggest reason for thinking we’ve hit the bottom? long time posters like 2Pack have called it, newbies (I know forst post from me) and there seems to be lots of them at the moment on the site are coming back with wish fullfilment arguments about why they won’t rise, this to me is the inverse of the why they won’t drop argument.

There genuinely seems to be a bit more confidence out there, don’t get me wrong I don’t expect houses to have dramatic rises, but I don’t think there’s much more to drop!

So after all these years my first post and I’m saying I’m buying a house…weird!

I plan to wait at least another year, then i ll probably wait again. I’ll just rent a nice house in the area I wish to live in. Don’t get what all the fuss is really.

Are you not a VI?

I don’t really agree with your comment that I am lurking but rather I provide challenge to the established pin viewpoint.

At the moment the evidence suggests that prices are rising in Dublin. It may well be a dead cat or it might be the start of a recovery.

As a regular contributor to the pin, I don’t fully understand how you can say I have an anti pin agenda. Does the pin even have an agenda?

I don’t believe, I have ever stated that once we reach a bottom the market it bounce straight back up to Celtic tiger levels.

Perhaps you might cite an example of such a statement.

I acknowledge that several of my recent comments have expressed a worry that the current bounce in SCD is starting to get out of hand.

Personally I believe the bottom was reached in Q4 2011 and we should now be experiencing normal property price inflation.

Never really thought pin had an agenda apart from the start, where it was to blow the whistle on what was going on, personally thought it was a place to express ones own thoughts…Only joined it after a while when it confirmed my own thoughts on the subject…

Just for clarity as per the index the price rises started in March of this year for Dublin…
Personally I will be taken Dublin As a whole, not certain areas to define whether we have hit the bottom…
Picking a small area that only effects a small % of the mkt goes without saying it doesnt reflect the bottom for the majority.
Bottom Calls for me are a whole area.
March 0.7
April 0.5
May 0.2
June
July
August
Total Increases so far 1.4%

If we have decreases above the 1.4%, then the bottom call is wrong…
Argue with that and go push your agenda else where…
however if we have further increases then we need to add this to the figures, again goes without saying…
I hope common sense comes in here…
My personally opinion is Sept this year - Feb next year will come close to or will wipe out any gains we have achieved for the Dublin mkt as a whole…
We will know a lot more about the global slowdown and Euro blah blah then to make another assesment whether this continues on into the summer months of next year

To be fair to Landlord he is as much a member of the pin as any of the rest of us. Lurking also refers to people who dont post. I respect his opinions and contributions even if I dont always agree with them. There is NO pin agenda as regards house prices, merely a variety of opinions from mostly intelligent people. I’ve learnt a lot here and I welcome the debate.

You can challenge any ones opinions, but keep it polite and not personal, the pin isn’t boards or politics.ie and I’d hate to see the type of posting that goes on there occurring here.