Mortgage market may be bottoming out

businessworld.ie/livenews.htm?a=2062712;s=rollingnews.htm

Well, seeing as the most recently released ESRI index fell under 1%, that would tally up fairly well.

Couples have presumably been building up their deposits.

Who expects a price rise in the ESRI index?

Who thinks we’re due another few years of rises, perhaps modest ones?

The idea of low interest rates makes me want to break into song:

The idea of low interest rates… now where would people get that idea? Not from the ECB that’s for sure. Hmm.

Who expects the arse to fall out of it as the live register climbs like an Everest silhouette and the government joins the rest of the population up to its armpits in debt?

This is a hugely important quote. It shows the real purpose of Austin’s pronouncements about future ECB rates.

apparently you can talk your way into a recession. i guess this is evidence of talking your way into a bull market. (or at least trying)

Or talking IL&Ps disgruntled broker clients into the IIB fold even 8)

ARGGHHHHHH.
I’ve been singing that wrongly for nearly 3 decades.

John. Get up from your desk. Climb the stairs right to the roof. Go on all the way up. Now JUMP!!!

I hope you’re reading this in the way down on your PDA (wifi is great isn’t it). Read fast, we’ve only got about 3 seconds.

Ok, now if you look you’ll see that the ground is coming towards you quickly, that’s because you’re falling. In other words your altitude is deteriorating. Relax, gravity is doing all the work, this isn’t costing you a penny.

Here’s the best part. After about 3 seconds of falling, you’re going to stop falling. Again, you don’t have to do anything special, the ground will take care of stopping you.

Once that happens you won’t be noticing anything like the sort of deterioration in altitude that you’re currently experiencing.

When you notice that your altitude has stopped deteriorating, give me a call and let me know how good it feels.

You and me both, and I’m guessing we both were getting the same part wrong.

keep talkin’

-Rd

That’s the most crucial part. KEEP TALKIN’ . I bet Austin knows the words :slight_smile: .

Spoke to a colleague at work today and he was saying “The experts in the papers were saying that the market has bottomed out now. Time to get in before it starts rising again.”
Pointing out that the experts have a vested interest in spreading “good” news didn’t seem to get through. I’ve noticed this with quite a few other people who are in positions where they might get stung. I think we’re still at the denial stage.

I find it useful to ask if those were the same experts that said property prices couldn’t/wouldn’t fall.

Isn’t it amazing how the rest of the world is in the middle of possibly the greatest credit deflation of all time yet plucky little Ireland is defying gravity. You have to wonder if people realise that we are really not in control of our own destiny and the places to look for future guidance are New York and London.

The same experts who now unilaterally agree that the supposedly impossible price falls were actually a good thing for the property market, long after the fact.

We are still hooked up to the giant inexhaustable (so far!) German ATM, and it is still dispensing cash at a rate lower than the inflation rate, as it has been doing for most of this decade.

I wonder if the country even remembers what it’s like to operate under positive real interest rates anymore.

It seems we must have a case of Japan-itus when the real effects of what has been happening over the last year or so are slowed by peoples unwillingness to accept it.

Hence its causing confusion with some people buying thinking they got a good deal due to a small reduction and others holding firm for a big fall downward in the market.

Ah well time will tell, and IT WILL TELL.

In theory yes but the average Joe Soap doesn’t know who these individual “experts” are and what their history is. They just hear a guy on the radio and think “oh he’s on the radio and therefore must know what he’s talking about”. There are actually well-educated people out there who believe that the market really is bottoming out and the “value” will be gone soon. This depresses me more than the plight of those who were fearmongered into buying at the peak of the boom.

We can rage all we want about Comical, Country Tom et al but most people out there won’t realise that he’s selling porky pies. From talking to people who actually own property, all I see is denial. If it wasn’t for the propertypin, I’d feel like shouting “I am legend” on Pana on a Friday evening!
I’m sorry to say but I reckon the CIF plan to draw in more suckers is semi-working, not that it will save the builders once the knife catchers run out too.
The market may stay irrational longer than canny mcsavvys can stay solvent but the vibe I’m getting is that they are going to do their best to win this particular game of chicken.

Trying to cut through the denial or even forewarn people:

https://justcoachit.blogware.com/Frustration.jpg

In many ways we did “talk our way into a bull market”, or at least allowed ourselves to be talked into one.

The spin, hype and in some cases straight lies told about the Irish property market; the number of properties available in the market vs demand, the condition of the market, the outlook going forward and the mix of metrics utilised by those pushing property and credit to justify the lending multiples and prices paid, not forgetting pronouncements by members of the government including ministers and the Taoiseach, were all contributing factors in persuading those open to persuasion that getting onto the mythical, fabeled, socially enabling, life enhancing, keeping up with the Joneses, never goes down, best investment possible, safe as houses, what are you waiting for, property ladder was the way forward.

The prices paid in the market have experienced unprecedented increases over the last number of years, having been talked up, mostly by statements that were at best ill informed and at worst intended to deceive. The same market prices will lose a significant amount of that price growth due the disclosure of the underlying fundamental truths in the market.

So, can we talk it up and talk it down … oh yes, but with a very, very different calibre of “talk” on both sides.

Blue Horseshoe

wouldn’t it be nice if one of the banks economists came out and said ‘truth is folks, things are not great right now’… i mean… even from the standpoint of just witnessing something like that. i’m saddened to see that every VI in property has gone the same as the perma-upbeat stock brokers ‘market is down? buy now for value!’ market is falling? ‘dollar cost average on the way down!’ market rising? ‘buy now! big bull run!’

what does it take to try and tell people whats actually happening as opposed to what you’d like to happen?

(btw: property market will go up 400% next week) :wink: