Mortgage Market Outlook 2011

Just to give everyone a shot at predicting the TOTAL Mortgage market in 2011.

I will weigh in with my prediction at some stage of course :smiley:

Total New Mortgage Drawdowns in previous years with a smidge of rounding applied.

2005 €34bn
2006 €40bn
2007 €34bn
2008 €23bn
2009 €8bn
2010 €6bn

2011 €-10Bn


H1 - 2011 - €2Bn
H2 - 2011 - £20Bn (punt nua) :nin

Thats -ve btw :nin

Right, any more prognostications ??

€4bn. There’s no way it’ll be higher than it was this year even.

I’m beginning to think I’ll never be drawing down a mortgage on this soggy rock.

All 6 domestic banks, or whatever number are left, need to spend 2011 meeting IMF loans to deposits ratios. This will mean a further contraction of credit.

4 billion is my prediction.

Given it is the total mortgage marketdoes it include renegotiated mortgages? i…e where someone takes out a new mortgage to replace an existing?

Anyway, I say 9 Billion

8bn euros


Agreed, roughly 4bn.
I don’t think I’ll be doing any mortgages here with these crowd of banksters.

Between 2 and 3 bn. Am assuming nobody will really be able to get a mortgage

Grand so, thanks everybody.

I predict the Mortgage Market in 2011 will be €3.4bn in TOTAL.

Way too low. If that happens we will be in a cash market scenario.

6 bn new
4 bn redemptions
net 2 bn…

Well, if predictions for the UK are this low…


'The mortgage freeze will continue next year, with net lending expected to slump to its lowest level in 30 years, the Council of Mortgage Lenders warned yesterday.

It predicts that net mortgage lending will hit a low of only £6billion, a paltry amount compared with the peak year of 2006 when £110billion was handed out.



Thats what they say to me every year :slight_smile: