Nama is rescue plan for the elite: McWilliams

Yes some professionals were burned in syndicates but the article is a bit of bumpf - syndicates were made up of all sorts and not just straight A professional classes

What is interesting and what he didn’t focus on is the leveraging in the syndicates - even the equity was borrowed money and although non-recourse interest rolls up

In fact what has happened restores the “natural order” for professional classes whereby your salary/income determines how wealthy you are and not wheeling/dealing in property or doing some plumbing/building etc

Feckin’ Jesuits.
McWilliams and his classmates were Holy Ghosters though.
The Blackrock motto is “Fides et Robur” - trustworthiness and steadfastness. :slight_smile:

The destruction of the commercial classes as Morgan Kelly has called it! I don’t buy McWilliams’ point about all the pass students duping the honours students. A lot of banks started targetting professionals in a big way over the last couple of years and went all out to suck as much money out of them as possible when things started going south.

The risk of interest groups influencing what happens next is huge, particularly if sops to these interest groups end up damaging everbody else. The influence of the interest groups is what will determine their power. McWilliams is right to focus on this.

Some overlapping groups are as follows:

  1. Future Pensioners are the most damaged, most influential and most motivated in the current crisis. They are 45+ and they have money and friends in the higher places. They are also respected and listend to. These peope have huge political power.

  2. Bancassurance workers and companies. They are big in numbers. Their authority may be lessened but they still are the only ones who speak the secret code of the financial world. They are determined to survive at all costs. Their strength lies in numbers and in the fact that they control the information - asymmetric information advantage. They also control or have close peronal links to other investment companies such as Davys, Goodbodys and Bloxhams. This allows them to exert indirect influence on the means of opinion creation. This is not to mention ethe fact that everbody who has power and influence wants to exercise that power and influence in dealing with the banks and in being fed information by the banks. The banks are still hugely powerful.

  3. Developers. Small in numbers but big in personality. Thier influence is through bankers and politicians who they have to work hand in glove with because of the historical role of councillors in local authorities. The bankers and the politicians were in it for the profits and donations. The developers are now more of a burden than a help to bankers and politicians. Their former friends now want to fleece them and to distance themselves from anyone who won’t come good. The developers are fcked.

  4. Breakfast Roll man as David McWilliams would call him. The many people who made good in the boom are now making nothing. They will support whatever they think might give them employment again. there is political power there.

  5. The public sector and the unions. The political power of the public sector and unions is unparalleled. To be seen to pander to them would be suicide given the divisive debate that has taken place to date. Nevertheless they have a huge lobby and they have a huge amount of votes. They will not want to fund a bail out of anybody else.

  6. Investment property owners/Share owners. There are a lot of these about. Those of them who are stretched will want to get something back. They have lost a lot but they still have skin in the game. They are often professionals, business men, doctors and senior public sector employees. Again, they are people with influence with their peers and with people who are employed by them and others who look up to them. They are the type of people who are interestedin politics and the type of people who politicians listen to.

  7. The professional classes. These people are the ones hiding their hurt at the moment. Their income is down and their investments are difficult to service. They are used to making their case and they are looking for a silver lining. Those who service the economy and who are not insolvent don’t care what happens to anyone else so long as the economy starts to move again. They would support McWilliams medecine if it worked. Others are reverting to their inner pass maths student and are looking for somebody to save their professions and their investments. There is a huge overlap between this bunch and those at no. 6 above. These people feel that they have done everything right in building up a solid careeer/business and in equipping and setting up their children for comfortable lives. The bottom has fallen out of their world and they are furious.

  8. The FTB’s. These guys are a smaller group than they think. these are the “where is my NAMA” bunch. Their NAMA is not coming as they are too small a group and too amorphous to wield influence at the ballot box or otherwise. They do not have enough locally important people amongst their number to sway the masses. Their only hope of influence is to mobilise their families and to generate a coherent voice. Even then they are towards the bottom of the pecking order.

  9. The masses of private sector employees. Without union representation, without access to politicians, without fancy investment advice. These people are the ultimate swing voters. This is their power. Many want cuts cuts cuts and many want bankers and developers heads on the railings of Trinity college. More than anything else though they want competent government and an economic plan that will work. These are the people that McWilliams is trying to reach because ultimately they hold the most political power.

  10. The Media - I’ll leave these puppies to somebody else.

Good analysis Neg. Cov. I’d just add that Breakfast Roll Man is pretty far down the pecking order as well - somewhere near the FTBs I’d say. This demographic was never politically organised and now many have already left for work in the UK / Oz / Dubai / etc, or are suffering as they’re now out of work and having been (nominally) self-employed aren’t entitled to much in the way of benefits.

I agree its a good analysis, but we must be careful who we are talking about in list terms. The priorities of FF don’t match those of the DoF don’t match those of the bankers don’t match those of the opposition etc. Each has their endangered species list with their particular snail at the top of it. I think a lot of the paralysis we have seen so far is a result of the conflicts between these lists.

And let’s not forget the mink.

The list is in no particular order. Indeed the groups are not dicrete or distinct. I agree that breakfast roll man is down the line.

YM is right that different players have different priorities and can be swayed in different ways. Personally, I suspect the DoF relies on the banks and bankers for much of its info and policy.

NAMA will prevent the firesale of property assets. It is an attempt to prevent the operation of a free market in properties. Without NAMA the banks (or their liquidators) under pressure from creditors to generare liquidity would have no option but to try and realise cash. It therefore does indeed put a floor in the market by restricting supply.

nytimes.com/2009/10/14/opini … .html?_r=3

  1. The masses of private sector employees. Without union representation, without access to politicians, without fancy investment advice. These people are the ultimate swing voters. This is their power. Many want cuts cuts cuts and many want bankers and developers heads on the railings of Trinity college. More than anything else though they want competent government and an economic plan that will work. These are the people that McWilliams is trying to reach because ultimately they hold the most political power.

By writing in the Sunday Business Post? :laughing:

Sorry but I think your entire post is the narrative fallacy identified by Taleb - natural tendency of people to engage in story telling, simplification and summarisation

Yes, definite over-simplification in the list! Take as an example the professional class. The 35+ up with their multiple houses (perhaps) and investments have different interests and views to the 25-35 group, who are either stuck in starter homes in negative equity (want a bail out), are still renting (want prices to drop) or sitting reasonably pretty owing to bank of mum and dad.

Ahh tyler… :cry: :cry:

Do you believe that the Minister and officials are not coming under political pressure and nobody is trying to influence them?

I’d point out though that the ‘correct’ behaviour, thinking, and swelling of the ranks of the FTBs would serve the interests better than anything else of all the rest of the groups you set out (some more than others).

Every now and again we hear a call from one or other dubious, self-righteous character saying “first time buyers need to be got off the fence”, or some spiel about banking and government conspirators martyring themselves to help out the poor old FTB etc.

So, the point being that although the FTB group have thus far demonstrated very little intelligent voice of their own, it is in the interests of most of your other groups to give the FTB group everything they might want for (and, indeed not to push them to develop an intelligent voice of their own). They desperately need more people to happily join the FTB group if their own interests are to be served. Also, they can then bluster away that they are not interested in serving their own interests, but in serving the interests of these other poor souls etc.

EDIT - You acknowledged pretty much the same thing in your post here today viewtopic.php?f=50&t=25878&p=312925#p312925 It’s an important point - FTBs are the primary source of the endless trough for all the parasitical tendencies of the other groups. It is a substantial trough too - thirty to thirty five years of indentureship per FTB no less. Thus, I’d say that FTBers will eventually be showered with concessions and outright gifts. Anything to try and top up the trough all these groups have become addicted to.

NAMA is a Bailout of the bankers at the expense of the Taxpayer… If the developer is friendly with a Banker then it may help him… Bankers Bankers Bankers…Once we are debating as a nation that it is a bailout for the developers or the bankers or the poltical elite etc then the root of the problem never gets solved and the BANKERS perform the greatest Robbery of all time…
Same type of Model is being used in other countries…

In relation to creating a floor under house prices, it could IMHO if the world economy improves and we dont have any more credit events…Be prepared to adjust if that is the case…
(there is plenty of data out there to suggest that this would be a foolish bet at the current moment)

The World political elite are trying their best to convince the World population that the Credit Crisis is over… Our political elite prefer to follow this crowd and believe that we are on the way to recovery. That is Lenihans Bet (His bet because he believes the bankers Threats)…
Lenihan prefers to be part of this crowd then to stand up on his own feet…Better to be wrong with everyone else than to be wrong all by your own…

Lenihan could show True leadership and call these bankers bluff through a controlled and organised Plan…Instead of a quick downturn we will have a slow decline that will last for decades robbing everyone of any discretionary income…

roc

I think you are confusing bubble FTBs with trough FTBs. Bubble FTBs have negative equity and may have risky jobs. Trough FTBs will not get loans unless they have solid jobs and a deposit. Bubble FTBs carry the pyramid. I don’t buy into the idea that the Govt or anyone else wants another bubble [except for maybe bubble FTBs who want out from under the boulder].

I didn’t say that. I expect there is lobbying going on as there always is by vested interests but I don’t buy into the big conspiracy theory.

My point was more in relation to the breakdown of demographics into “Breakfast Roll Man”, Professional Classes etc etc. Narrative fallacy and mistaken. For every professional who lost money in a syndicate there is another who was as conservative as always and kept his money on deposit in the bank. These groups of people are not monoliths that move as one entity and they are not organised in any real way as a lobby group outside of those of them who are already active in politics as their interests are all very different.

People are self serving and hope the cure helps them more than harms them but unfortunately society cannot be broken down into these neat little stereotypes - it is lazy journalism and am surprised people on here fall for such parables.

If banks were as organised as people imagine they would have taken out ACC before the Carroll case but they don’t act as one (even though one might imagine their interests are aligned in some way)

Did my clarification that the groups were indistinct, overlapping and lacked discreteness not clear up that I was not saying that those people were organised as lobby groups and that I am not saying they are monoliths? I think accusing me af lazy journalism is lazy posting considering I am not a journalist and I was not saying what you have read into my post (i.e., organised lobbying monoliths).

I intentionally put all FTBers in the same group. My reason being that FTBers always comprise the essential underlying component of the property pyramid - whatever their current preferred economic profile (remember these profiles might easily change in surprising ways in the future - nothing is written in stone yet.).

Bubble FTBs must be given hope and shown some consideration so that they will continue paying off the mortgage sums that the other groups have already spent.

Trough FTBs must be encouraged in to provide fresh funds to the (feeding) trough and additionally provide hope for the other market participants (particularly bubble FTBs) that new FTB buying sentiment represents etc.

I doubt too that the government would risk or put forward another bubble. All they want is a sustainable basis for FTB activity (as long as this ‘sustainable’ level incorporates a sizeable land value component over pure building cost that can be siphoned off by the parasitic tendencies). They will temper their greed for a long time to come, no doubt.

But considering what you call ‘trough FTBs’ - there are a sizable number of potential candidates out there. These potentials are the ones who have relatively secure jobs. And they will be assessed on their ability to repay the loan on a more conservative basis. Likely, over thirty years. The government and establishment (or NAMA) must convince these potentials that they are getting a good deal and to sign up.

Then considering the ‘bubble FTBs’ - the government and establishment must demonstrate to them that they will look after them. - Because this group is the engine of the economic life of the property industrial complex (which might be reducing drastically at the moment, but will not disappear totally). Also, because they must demonstrate to new potential FTBers that this group will be looked after well by the government and establishment (these are the good citizens, deserving of every support in their eyes, as opposed to contrary internet bloggers looking for rock bottom prices, rocking the boat etc.)

All I’m saying is that FTBs (of both categories) are critical to the interests of all the groups you set out. Yes, each require different strategies to be handled correctly (from the point of view of those higher in the pyramid). But by giving concessions to both these groups, you try to ensure they do not step away from under the pyramid, and encourage more in. That is what it comes down to.

Where is he getting this straight A stuff from?
I know quite a few straight A students who went
to the average local rat infested portacabin vocational school.
They certainly didn’t exist in any kind of class bubble.

I also know a handful of Rugger School types that are so thick
they’d need crib notes on the back of their hand just to remember
how to wipe their ass.

It’s not about how many A’s you get. That’s no barometer
of fickwittery.

-Rd

Narrative fallacy