Nama to buy loans for 54 Billion

He’s generally considered to be a cut above the average (most are very average at best) developer. Still a VI though so pinches of salt recommended

It seems to me that there’s a fuck up in the nama calculations. Lenihan claims a recovery in values(long term economic value of 15%) and adds 7bn to the market value of 47bn.

The thing is nama will buy loans not property. So unless they reposess absolutely every single property, they won’t realise the 7bn. Say if only half the underlying loans were reposessed, the market values would need to increase by 30% up get the 7bn.

Looks like Lenihan doesn’t know the difference between loans and property.

Dude,

you’re like a scratched records. Price drops you said wouldn’t happen have happened. I think you live in a fantasy world. The massive price cuts have been happening. I am not in favour of trying to put a figure on what the end haircut from peak will be.

Where I live, property has take a 30% haircut minimum, in some cases 40%. So much so that I am closer to considering buying something than I have been for the past 9 years. Okay? These are huge cuts and if you come back and say they aren’t I will metaphorically slap you for lying to yourself and trying to delude others. For the average person, like me, a cut equating to 250,000E less that I have to pay for a property is a huge cut. It equates to well over 5 times my salary together with a fucking huge improvement in property options available to me. Do I make myself clear?

NAMA will not have an impact on property prices. That’s not its remit. Its remit is to prevent the banks from either going broke or being nationalised, take your choice. But the property market is a separate beastie whether you like it or not and it will find its own equilibrium, NAMA or no NAMA. Property prices were sliding before Anglo Irish was nationalised; before the deposit guarantee was implemented.

I’d also add - because I really want you to understand this - anyone who tries to sell you a dream home is lying to you. Houses, au fond, are only bricks and mortar. There is no such thing as a dream home; only chains you create for yourself.

There will not be an arrest in house price slippage just because of these figures for the simple reason that there are a huge number of second hand properties for sale and we were already oversupplied before this happened.

Personally speaking, I think your ass needs to be pounded again but I’m not in the mood for doing it because quite frankly I don’t think you’re worth it. People like you make me sick because you want the wonderland of people being slaves to the bank to continue. I pity you. Or I would if I thought about you when I don’t see the utter crap you spout here some times.

He’s still trying to figure out ass V elbow

And that doesn’t even allow for the funding costs on the €54bn.

Rolled up even at 3.5% over the next 10 years would mean the €54bn becomes €76bn

We need the €47bn in property to increase by 61% over 10 years to break even excluding NAMA operating costs.

77 bn loans.
60% non-performing.
9 bn rolled-up interest.
From the Zoe case, it appears that the liquidation value of non-performing loans is 25%.
77-9=68
68 - (680.6) = 27.2
(68
0.6) = 40.8 * 0.25 = 10.2

Assuming none of the performing loans go bad, are at least 100% LTV, and are at market price, total asset value = 37.4 bn

Loss of 25+ bn coming up…

Rookie mistake there, you used actual figures, you should be a little more wishy washy, the ecb will give us the money, its only an iou, factor in long term economic value, we are currently at the bottom. Try that and you’ll find the answer you are looking for :slight_smile:

Disgusted.

Dreaded,

The funding remains a grey issue. Which seems deliberate given how significant it is.

I’m highlighting the long term economic value as it’s something Lenihan has been specific about. And is wrong unless 100% foreclosure occurs.

So we’ve gone from the banks cooking up reckless 100% mortgages at market prices to the banks and their buddies colluding to cook up reckless 115% bailouts at market prices.

With any luck NAMA will be FF’s epitaph.

Blue Horseshoe

This is a good deal for the country. Fianna Fail know what they are doing. They always have and they always will.

They have taken the brave step of establishing NAMA.
The ignorant electorate will throw FF out after a post-budget election.

FG will reside over a messed up country and will have to cut jobs and raise taxes.

FF will bide its time. Then we will call in the favours from our bailed-out friends. They will bank roll a huge election campaign for us.
The ignorant electorate will take FF back.

We will be back in power.

What is good for FF is good for the country.

So this is all a good deal for the country. A bargain price - only costing tens of billions.

God Bless FF

How can they claim 75% LTV or even 77% LTV if over 10% of the loans are interest rollup?

IFRS has a very wide definition of performing. We have no idea how many of these are bad in the sense that they are already loss making.

As a nation, we could’ve had class, we could’ve been somebody, we could’ve been contenders, instead of bums, which is what we are, and instead of fighting it, we are going to just take it up the ass, as we always do.

It’s a sad day when not even WGU can be jovial about what’s going on.

If we are going to go all 1984, at least we have our Julias.

I don’t particularly agree with what crashandburn posted, but there seems to be a slight disconnect here.

So what about Lenihans assertion that all it will take is a 10% rise in property prices over 10 years to break even.
Assuming(and I know its a big assumption) that the 47Bn is at present the market value and the bottom, whats wrong with this argument.

he actually said that?

**Do not go gentle into that good night **
by **Dylan Thomas **

Do not go gentle into that good night,
Old age should burn and rave at close of day;
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.

Though wise men at their end know dark is right,
Because their words had forked no lightning they
Do not go gentle into that good night.

Good men, the last wave by, crying how bright
Their frail deeds might have danced in a green bay,
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.

Wild men who caught and sang the sun in flight,
And learn, too late, they grieved it on its way,
Do not go gentle into that good night.

Grave men, near death, who see with blinding sight
Blind eyes could blaze like meteors and be gay,
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.

And you, my father, there on the sad height,
Curse, bless, me now with your fierce tears, I pray.
Do not go gentle into that good night.
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.

poets.org/viewmedia.php/prmMID/15377

And what are the populations of the UK and the US?
:angry: