Nama – When Is A Haircut Not a Haircut?

Nama – When Is A Haircut Not a Haircut? -> bocktherobber.com/2009/09/nama-w … -a-haircut

What part of long term economic value does that man not understand… :cry:

Bock reckons a 15 bn loss. I think it’s worst than that, we’re dead Jim. I reckon somewhere between 20-30 bn.

As noted, these are seriously hokey-cokey deals. Pretty much all of them. Either they are unbuildable glass towers in Ringsend within sniffing distance of Sheriff Street and the sewage works, or they are peripheral village scrubland within an asses roar of a major road that will now not be built.

As further noted, 9 bn of the 77 bn is rollies. This is not all bad. Some of it was undoubtedly used to do basic works on the sites. However, the suspicion must be that much of it was snorted, ponzied or diverted to helicopters and villas. We’ll say about 7 bn for the laugh.

So we’re down to 70 bn of assets behind the loans at near peak (as for the LTV, be thankful I don’t count it as the negative it is likely to be - these loans are basically only secured on their primary underlying assets).

We’ve paid 54 bn with 2.7 bn in subordinates. Let’s assume that the government does actually not pay out on the subordinates and they are indeed first loss. We’re down to having paid 51.3 bn.

A third of the assets are farmland. I believe farmland is going to halve in price in the next ten years - the yields just don’t support the current prices, CAP is disappearing, and development is no longer an option. Even then Irish farmland would be expensive by european standards. There is currently an attempt to put lipstick on these pigs by getting planning permission for them. WTF?! It is still just farmland. I have a field behind me. If I went to the local planning office and got planning for a new national stadium on it would that make it be worth more? So the land element is going to be the biggest drop. 17 bn --> 3 bn.

Commercial and retail = one third. Even taking the standard haircut from a property bust of 12% gives a loss of near 2 bn. As our is particularly bad and oversupply is particularly pronounced and Greystones doesn’t need two Dundrum centre equivalents, we can probably double it to 4 bn. We’re up to 18 bn without even a case of the DTs.

The final turd is overseas. I’ve been a little bemused by this. The chat has all been that the overseas stuff will recover better sooner. If so, why on earth do the banks want to offload it? I presume most of it is from Anglo, but who knows. I also presume that a fair amount is Quinlan Private and copycats. Our own dear leader seems to have been stiffed with his apartment block in Leeds. I know of a couple of people who bought big in Hungary and are making up the mortgage now the guaranteed rental has run out. The hole in the ground that WGU has so eloquently documented is undoubtedly one of the loans as is the Century Building in NYC. I wonder if the man with the jumper is one of the borrowers? Anyway, this is where I have most doubt. I just can’t see that, given all the shite that has been bought, built and lent, that we have anything other than toxic dump brownfield sites across the globe. It is this that I think will only be worth 50%, so another 8.5 bn loss giving a total of 26.5 bn.

Of course, I could be very wrong, but since we are not being told what is coming into NAMA, suspicions must remain that it is far worse than we are being told. I am sure that if we had a dozen acres of Kew, Chiswick and Knightsbridge it would be trumpeted from the rooftops. As it is, we have not heard of a single area that any of the overseas sites are.

Well thats wrong for a start… he’s paying 54Bn for ‘assets’ with a current value of 47Bn… not 77Bn

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Do we own Battersea Power station?

We could charge Pink Floyd fans a few quid for a butchers to get some yield on the site XX

If We were to park all the spin one side for the moment and adopt the Chaingang School of Economics it reads like this. Real loan values 77billion less interest roll-up 9 billion gives us 68 BILLION. Now Lenny has paid over or is about to pay over the following. 11 billion already paid over. 54 billion about to be paid over gives 54+11=65 billion. Banks should be down only 3 billion but we know they bought gack some of their subbie bonds at discount so 3 billion propably covered. Conclusion Irish Citizens carry can for all the shit of the Banks and thats the price were paying for being their Shareholders and Partners.I know people will tinker around with the margins here and there to show their Financial Prowess but the above is all I need to know.ROYALLY SCREWED AND LOOKING FOR A WORK VISA ANYWHERE.FUCK THE LOT OF THEM.