National Prices V Dublin Prices

When i found the Pin i was fascinated by the ‘return to norm’ principals mentioned a lot on here that will occur once this boom-bust is over, but i’m wondering will the traditional difference in price between national property and Dublin property stay the same?

I cant find the stats now, but during the 80’s and 90’s Dublin property price average was usually 150% of the national figure, i think in 1985 (the year i was researching) national was 22k average and Dublin was 31k roughly.

Now considering a 4 bed semi in Letterkenny can be got for 100-120k and i reckon there’s another 50% to go here, would you say that a 3 bed semi in dublin could be got for 75-85k at the end of this? (Is Letterkenny or any one town a bad example?) Is there so much empty property in areas away from major populations thats the difference will be much greater that the 80’s or 90’s? i.e. dublin average house price 200-300% of national price?

In the following circumstances:

  1. no quantitative easing as the ECB stays firm
  2. interest rates to ~10%
  3. unemployment 25% in Dublin
  4. mass immigration out of Ireland
  5. workers from the country who moved to Dublin return back home
  6. solid information on house prices is published

There are already corpo-style 3 beds in tallaght/clondalkin selling for €130-150k, so if all or most of the above factors happen then I can see houses there selling for the €75-85k mark.

One thing that strikes me as odd is that Tallaght wouldn’t be the worst area in Dublin, and the ones for sale at these prices are not the worst areas in Tallaght, so why are Tallaght prices lower than the rest of Dublin? I’d rather live in Tallaght than Crumlin/Dolphin’s Bar, but it seems that a lot of people moved to the latter areas because of proximity to the city centre. Again, I’d much rather live in a well settled area of Tallaght than in a new estate in Clongriffin?

The cheapest 3 bed in Darndale is €240k, in Donaghmede 3 beds are advertised as €300k+. And just in case it is some bizzare west dublin thing, the cheapest in Blanch is just under €200k.

It seems to me that Tallaght prices are the most realistic, so if you were looking to see evidence of €75-80k houses, Tallaght might be the place to watch.

I’d have to agree with you Johhny. Tallaght isn’t the worst and in terms of transport links, it’s a lot better served than Clongriffin et al.

Hi,

Good idea OP, and worth investigating. I must have a look at the DOEHLG stats and see what the “norm” has been since the 1980s and how steady or not it was. In the meantime, given that asking prices can be good at preserving cross-sectional differences (even if you disagree with their levels and maybe even trends), you may find this of interest from last month:
ronanlyons.wordpress.com/2009/04 … ty-market/
The punchlines:

You’d have to find out where prices in Letterkenny stood against the national average before assuming that Leterkenny is average. Considering the fact that the rest of the country average included Cork, Galway, Waterford and Limerick it would be fair to assume that prices in Letterkenny were quite a bit lower than the national average. So just randomly picking a town with about 10,000 people in it’s greater area you aren’t getting any sort of comparison.

A couple of links you might find useful

permanenttsb.ie/dynamic/pdf/PermanantTSB_6_6_02.pdf

cso.ie/px/Doehlg/Dialog/varval.asp?ma=HSQ06&ti=Average+Price+of+Houses+by+Quarter,+Statistic+and+Area&path=…/Database/DoEHLG/Housing%20Statistics/&lang=1

There’s a nice countrywide map in the PTSB report which might help your Donegal query. Equally it looks like it has the most detail if you can extract it in any meaningful way. Maybe google can bring up earlier and later versions of the same report. Hopefully the PTSB methodology only affects absolute prices rather than comparisons between areas :question:

The second link is from the Dept of the Environment. The below graph is the second hand house prices of area versus national.

Hard to put a price on Letterkenny when this could be it in 2011

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZsgOaCZ2Lag

simple answer to OP. I don’t ever see dublin semi ds going for 75-85K.

Some apartments perhaps, but people will hang on limpit like for 5-10-15 years and postpone everything to hold onto to their homes. There will certainly be forced sales and certainly be downward movement. If we see average semi ds approach 4 times av ind wage
c. 140-150K I will not be surprised. There wont be massive volume but bargains will be had if you are in the loop

Just looking through the DOEHLG stats on house prices, it looks like Letterkenny was a long way behind in prices compared to nationally during the 80’s and 90’s. From looking at the stats i would say Letterkenny and the rest of the NW lagged behind at the start for the bubble.

(going on some prices i know for fact)

In 1985 a new 3 bed semi in Letterkenny was 28k punts, but the national average house price was 35k . In 1998 a new 4 bed semi in a very good area was 55k punts but the national average was 97k (Dublin 125k punts). So my belief is that the house bought in 1998 for 55k punts (e70k) will be sold when the market functions (may fall below this price at bottom) at e80k, and that a 3 bed in an average estate will be e60k, again without external influences on prices. By the way, the 4 bed sold for 55k punts in 1998 and i predict will cost e80k soon were selling for e240k in 2006.
That would put the average Dublin house price at +/- e170k and needing a 51% drop in average Dublin house prices until we reach bottom (from dec 08). Although i dont know Dublin property, that doesn’t seem to far off the mark??

:open_mouth:

Now I’ve friends from Darndale, spent many a night there, I well remember An Emotional Fish playing the community centre in 1990 (Ger Whelan is from the area)…but €240K for a house in Darndale? That’s just pure mad.

Hi,

Agree you are probably always better off living in a more established neighbourhood but depending on what part of Tallaght or Clongriffin you live in public transport is varied. The 128 runs from Clongriffin on a 10min schedule most of the day and has a decent QBC along the Malahide Rd. From experience of working in Tallaght and living in Clongriffin I find the 128 a better service than the 77 for example.

Tallaght currently has the LUAS which takes about 50mins to Connolly. The much delayed Clongriffin DART station is finally opening in January and will have a connection of 20mins to Connolly. Until then the estate is serviced by a shuttle bus service to the the nearest station at Howth Junction which you can also walk to in 20mins.

So notwithstanding my interest in Clongriffin (I live here) it’s debatable whether Tallaght is better served as a general statement. For a new area we are not doing too bad with a very frequent cross town bus service and a DART ready in January (it is about 50% complete so this not an aspirational statement).

But again depending on what estate in Clongriffin you live you may or may not have good access to this DART. Clongriffin town centre and The Coast for example are right beside it. But in Belmayne on the other hand, thanks to a developer/council land deal falling through a promised new road link is now not being built so it will be a half an hour walk from the DART, as indeed a lot of Tallaght currently is from the LUAS.

Sorry if I went off topic but I’m just defending my turf. We’ve had our problems out here but things are looking up since the new bus service got started, the new park is opening in 2 weeks and the DART is imminent. I’m not sugar coating anything I’m stating it as is and just want to make sure the place isn’t talked down unnecessarily. I want to see the community develop here and I think it’s fair to counter suggestions that the area is poorly served by public transport as this is not true.

Cheers.

The regions are fucked. Good luck!

Good man, your prescience and best wishes are eminently appreciated.