New Estates being locked down

Hi,

I’m just wondering if a thread could be started (here?) to monitor the housing estates (or phases of existing estates) that are increasingly being locked up as the bite takes hold.

I refer to one near where I’m living that has had a secure fence erected across the entrance road and paths to prevent anyone from gaining access in the last week. Prior to this there was a temporary barrier in place at night to only allow builders to come and go during the day - I assumed they were weatherproofing the houses during this time in preparation for the ensuing dip.

I have heard of three other estates with the same thing happening in a nearby town in the midlands.

Moderators - would we be able to mention the names of these estates?

its the builders holiday which may explain it ???

can you define locked down as distinct from on holiday.

Can you take a picture of the fence, and maybe post a litlle map to show where it is?

Facts are facts: if there’s a fence, they can hardly complain about you going on t’internet and saying “look at this picture, as of 5pm yesterday, this fence is accross the road!”

The one I pass is in Rathangan, Temple Mills. The fact that they’d been preventing access every evening (a large bale of pipes was always blocking the road into the estate) since earlier this year made me think that the builders holidays aren’t related.

I’ve heard of three more estates in Tullamore from a neighbour who’s linked to the industry.

I’ll try and get a photo up of the new ‘hardcore’ fence at Temple Mills this week.

Frankly I would wait till mid august before I pointed any fingers. If they are still locked down, as you put it, in mid august then the situation will be completely different.

Temple Mills is a development of 143 houses , see

templemills.ie/house_type.php

Do some research on 'availability ’ in the interim. They were ‘launched’ in January or so . see

daft.ie/searchsale.daft?sear … d=215044&s[agent_id]=938&s[p]=sptpuutx

Been away for a few weeks, but noticed that the security fence was taken down at the start of September and replaced with the less attractive bale of drainage pipes across the entrance once again.
Behind this obstacle is a new sign announcing the Showhouse opening hours (one day a week for a few hours).

I wonder who in their marketing department thought it would be useful to have such a setup on their main access road? …the bale of pipes and the sign behind it. :unamused:

Guess it was holidays afterall for the Fort Knox setup in July/August.

Noticed another new housing estate locally which has recently had a 10ft high plywood fence put around it’s entrance - and then painted a lovely shade of black - as any finishing touches appear to have been put on hold at the entrance to it.

In Rathborne, Ashtown, Dublin 15, there are a couple of new blocks that are very quiet. No progress seems to have been made in the past 2/3 months.

Its a growing trend it seems.

eastmeath.org/blog/?p=322#comments

“The Grange” on the N11 in Dublin still seems very quiet. It looks like nothing is happening on the office section. (I think the curvy bit on the right of the site is office space)

Back in Limerick over the weekend, the new estate beside my Mum’s has completed Phase 1 (over 50% still vacant) and Phase 2 has been postponed “indefinitely” according to the EA I rang.

Today McInerney homes released H1 results that came in below expectations. In a subsequent lunch meeting the CEO admitted that that company had targeted 825 home sales in Ireland in 2007 - this was a ‘worst case scenario’ prediction made in late August. He has now lowered this target to 700 sales in the year. In his words…‘September sales did not happen’…

I think there’s minimalwork going on on all these apartment building sites. Maybe they over ran the time for other jobs to be completed and they have to wait for the plumbers/electricians to come back and start the job.

my guess is that thebuilding along the N11 will be delayed so that no two complexes are for sale at once.

The rock road is building up fast :open_mouth:

There is a range of potential scenarios. Here is a more dire one:

The business model under which these large scale developments are managed include a requirement to recycle cash flow from subsequent phase launches through to cinstruction costs in the earlier phases. This would keep demand for working capital low and increase profit margins.

However, with little in way of deposits flowing in from new phases, cash flow is tightening up. Add to that tightening conditions from bankers might mean that developers are finding they can’t fund the work and are hoping to push through to completion on current phases with minimal cost for now, in the hope that cash will begin to flow again shortly.

Anybody know if McInerney sold any of a new launch in Rathdrum,Wicklow.
Viewmount is the name of the development which was officially launched in September although surprisingly has not been put on myhome

I hear that the Grange is on hold as they are in an argument with the coco about affordable housing in the place. The developers want to build more affordable houses in another development in place of having none in The Grange but the county council wants them built there.

So much for “Gracious Living”

Cool.

McInerney have a report on why it is dead money to rent:

mcinerneyhomes.ie/news.htm

Have a look at the excel spreadsheet. They say it shows it is better to buy over anything other than one year.

I think there is at least one mistake i the spreadsheet. See if anyone else agrees.

By playing with the assumptions just a little I can get a superior result for renting over 8 years.

  1. Rental yield - 4% (2% where I’m renting)
  2. Deposit interest rate - 2% below mortgage rate (I’m getting 4.5% which in these assumptions is .5% below)
    3)35 years (wonderful)
    4)House price inflation-change it to o%

:unamused:

I’m astonished they published that!!

I just looked at a few places that I’d consider within my current budget, in every case the signal is continue to rent for the next 3-5 years!!, thats putting house inflation at 1%p.a which is generous imho.

That chart is a keeper.

There is no where on this spreadsheet to allow me see what additional return I will earn on investing the differential between my monthly rental costs and my potential mortgage repayments over the next 35 years.
They don’t even discount the figures from latter years!
This is possibly the worse investment guide I’ve ever seen!

McInerney, is down another 10% today after being down 20% yesterday, volume of shares traded is twice as big as yesterday.