rte.ie/business/2006/1127/houses.html
Ding fecking dong! 
So where does that fit into the old squeezing the supply argument to sustain the bubble?
Logically then, if the builderās heart and desire is to maintain āvolume of saleā then heās going to reduce prices to meet the tanking affordability situation and thatāll send the whole thing spiralling into freefall.
We all know we have a sufficient supply of housing, and the market is just confirming this. But building houses and related spin offs from tiling to mortgage broking makes up much of the Irish economy. There can be no soft landing fairy tale ending to the mania. 
Youāre not kidding Duplex.
I suppose we should have taken that 50% fall in B&Q profits in the last quarter as the major indicator! 
All these stats, weāre getting at the minute are from the Summer, wait until the last six months of the year data comes inā¦
Oh lordy, if Cowen doesnāt touch stamp duty in the budget there could be many a gnashing of EAās teeth and wigs on the green as it wereā¦
A supply shutdown is a reactionary measure to some of the price drops documented as well as the build up in inventory per daftwatch etc. As this data is based on July/August drawdowns it wouldnāt have been crystal clear to all the VIās that a correction was underway. This stuff was planned for/financed/ built going back a year or eighteen months ago.
Where we move from here is how many new starts are getting put off due to the current malaise in the market?
Niall OāGrady of PTSB says its great news for first time buyers,the truth is the recent interest rate increases have meant Ftbs are restricted to borrowing less and if developers want to sell to them then they have to drop their prices to meet them.
With 100%,35 year mortgages there is just no room left for manouvre,Ftbs were priced out of the market but the market needs Ftbs so the market adjusted.
If prices drop .5% in one month, thats 6% per year,is that an indication of a soft landing? My understanding of a soft landing is when prices stay in line with inflation,weāll just have to wait a few more months I suppose 
Developers donāt make money by āsqueezing supplyā - i.e. for them to stop selling houses in order to allow others to make more money. Itās ludicrous.
Because of the supernormal profits that have been made in the Irish property market, developers have lots of scope to reduce prices and still make a profit. Smaller than in the past, but still a good profit. Itās the eejits who have massively overpaid for their BTL āinvestmentsā who have to get a high price to break even who will be royally screwed.
True with the market peak the flippers will start flapping, so to speak
It was the first item on the 9 oāclock news, too, just in case the general public hadnāt noticed yet. They blamed the interest rates as the main cause, but even with static interest rates, FTBs couldnāt keep paying arbitrarily higher prices forever. Only 2nd-timers could do that, presuming they can trick somebody into paying an equally inflated price for their house-for-sale.
Front Page of IT this morning:
ireland.com/newspaper/frontpage/2006/1128/1164403617471.html
Also Front Page of the Indo
unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=9&si=1731762&issue_id=14938
Maybe some people will wake up and listen now.
Iām confused(well maybe not 
).The first few paragraphs of the Times article says FTBS cannot afford new property so developers have not increased prices in order to sell,this is a price reduction as inflation is around 3%.
Further on in the article it says FF backbenchers are today going to lobby government to make changes in the budget to help FTBS,why bother, market forces are already doing the job?
The government are not trying to help FTBS,they are trying to keep the market bouyant at whatever long term costs there may be.
I just love Bertieās views of what is happening with interest rates. Itās like Homer Simpsonās view of economics.
How many first time buyers are there in the market each year?
Given that the government has allowed the bubble become a central (possibly the only) pillar of our economy its hardly surprising that they should seek to manipulate the market. But they are in a hopeless position. Current valuations are too far from fundamentals. And the fundamentals (ie real world economics) are teetering on the brink as the US housing and debt bubbles unwind. Much piss and wind will be employed by Bertie in the coming months to no effect.
Its cringworthy he might as well have blurted out
āDown with that sort of thingā
āSo far this can be characterised as a soft versus a hard landing!ā
Has Mr. OāGrady not been on a roller coaster before???
Weāre at that point twixt momentum and gravity, thereās no telling if itās going to be a short jolt down and back up or the mother of all drops to the bottomā¦
How these guys get away with it, arguing that the fundamentals were sound and now when the evidence counters them, pretend that they know whatās going onā¦ Itās vomit inducingā¦
The entire country is captured by vested interestsā¦
So I got a reply back from my Dad in relation to the email of the original RTE articleā¦
I put: āAnd ye came the tipping pointā as the subject headerā¦
Thatās his verbatim reply. Now, heās no financial dolt but heās an uber-bear in terms of trying to persuade me onto the property ladder at whatever priceā¦ Iām just worried that we are now increasingly likely to see a stamp duty change because it has entered the popular consciousness as the fix all.
Itās incredible that after years of āproperty can only go upā, āIreland is differentā, that they are now resorting to intervention in the market as the logical conclusionā¦ Despite being proved wrong on all counts, instead of really trying to encourage āsoft landingā by allowing the market to run itās course, they want to get one last round of suckers in on the grand game of āpass the debtāā¦
Will the banks, ahem sorryā¦, will the ādynamic lending institutions of Irelandā play along is the question?
Would someone please tell Mr Trichet that the head honcho in Ireland wonāt be very happy if he keeps increasing rates (well at least until after the next election)
I could not have said it any better myself,if there is stamp duty change in the budget it is simply to rope in the next bunch of thicks,this government doesnāt give a fuck about the next shower of buyers,they will simply be the oneās caught at the top of the pyramid.The only thing people can do is not buy,then prices will eventually return to fundamental levels.And just so people donāt think i have a greviance against the current government i have heard absolutely nothing from the current opposition that would make me think they have any better ideaās,in fact expecting something different from them i have been sorely misguided.IMHO at the moment there is little difference between FF and FG,FG have lost their way,you canāt be everyoneās friend no matter what the spin doctors might tell you.
Yep! I have a slithery feeling at this stage that Cowan will do a u-turn and amend stamp duty (at least for FTBs) - I think they feel that they must appear to be doing something to āmanageā thingsā¦
Of course, this would have the added effect of allowing all Fianna Failās developer mates to just whack the stamp duty value on to their house prices, and continue to try and fleece the FTBs for another few months. FF will probably pass it off as some sort of ācaringā āinitiativeā!
Iām sure these developer lads are lobbying for stamp duty change as we speakā¦ 