New mortgage lending falls to 1987 level

And new mortgages for July fall from €2.4billion in July 06 to €964million in July 08. … ?a=2266679

My God. :open_mouth: Mortgage lending only 10% higher than last year. :open_mouth:

Interesting. Its either Eddie Hobbs fault :slight_smile: or general battening down of the hatches?l

Systemic Crisis a-brewing :nin

Total outstanding credit should start declining by summer 09…and that’s when things get fun

My own take is that it is people battening down the hatches, I am not one who manages their money as competently as some others on this forum but I have found myself taking stock of my financial situation and clearing any outstanding debts. Lots of people I know are taking the same approach.

while i detect an amount of sarcasm there,
you must remember that inflation is running at 5%, so 10% is not that much,
arguably its still more than what the country needs, but at least its slowing!

What i can’t fathom is that estate agents like Sherry fitz/HOK are talking about things having picked up in Q2, but do these figures not contradict that

How long before residential mortgage lending falls to 500 million a month.

The Executors sale houses used to account for about one in five of houses for sale in Dublin.

Mu hunch is that these houses will lead the price fall as one anxious member out of a family can force the sale to go ahead.

While a few might want to hold out there is usually one in need or who does not want to risk prices falling further

On that basis they will take what they can get.

Sidewinder is right. Total outstanding debt must increase if monetary deflation is to be avoided. If it does not, debt default and bank collapse are inevitable.

These are very significant figures.
This is interesting - granted its not adjusted for securitisations but its still significant if you compare it to previous years!
page 9 of 27
Residential Mortgage Lending

Month		Unadjusted Outstanding Lending(millions)
Sept 07		120,522 
Oct 07 		121,872
Nov 07 		123,407
Dec 07 		123,002
Jan 08 		123,981
Feb 08 		124,888
Mar 08 		124,385
Apr 08 		125,348
May 08 		126,597
Jun 08 		120,569
Jul 08 		121,854 (below the Oct 07 figure!!!!)

that gives an idea of just how many mortgages are being sold this year!

Excuse my ignorance lads but can you expand a bit on this one? We’re talking monetary implosion here? :open_mouth:


Nah, not monetary, not unless its replicated across the eurozone.

Make it a bit tricky for the banks to make any money?

edit: Thinking about it, is a bit of deflation is likely in Ireland in excess of the rest of europe to bring the credit oustanding back in line with european averages?

What does this 9.6% figure mean? How is it calculated? I can’t understand how the value of new loans can be greater now than it was a year ago given prices, LTVs and volume have dropped.

Prices, LTV and volume aren’t relevant as such.

The growth in lending is for all outstanding lending, not just new loans made in the last year.

In other words, they’re not saying last we originated €100 and this year €110, they’re saying last year we had €100 out on loan (loans originating whenever) and this year its up to €110.

latest monthly statistics … ws_nav.asp

Debt repayed is money taken out of circulation. If the net debt repayed exceeds the amount of debt issued in any period, the money supply will contract. There will be less money in circulation. This makes it progressively more difficult for people to service their debts because, when the money supply is shrinking, there’s less liquidity available out of which they can make the payments as they fall due [1].

Deflation has never ever happened in modern Ireland, and its unlikely to happen now. If deflation even looks like its going to happen in the eurozone, the ECB will start printing money, ie reduce interest rates to 2% and start the party again.

The question is, though, is it likely that one (small) part of the eurozone could experience deflation while the rest continue merrily on. Looking at the US, I believe deflationary recessions have happened in the past in certain areas without affecting the rest of the country or the currency. I think this is what will happen to Ireland, indeed, if we are to regain our competitiveness, the value of the euro to Irish people has to increase; we must have deflation relative to the rest of the eurozone to become competitive again. I believe the same thing is likely in Spain.

I agree, but if the overall money supply in the eurozone is still growing, but the amount of money in Ireland is shrinking, thats not called deflation. Thats called POVERTY! :open_mouth:

If you have debts and your salary decreases or stays the same, then yes. If you have debts and you lose your job, you are bust, or at best standing still with Social Welfare help. If you don’t have debts and have cash and keep your job, you are in a good position. It’s a lot of ‘ifs’ though.