Next budget

So, now the dust has settled a little on the Supplementary Budget, what wil the December Budget look like?

I am guesing they will hike up Income Tax rates?

The IMF will be setting our budget. Tuesday’s budget could very well be the last by an Irishman for a while.

according to their “plan” they are going to know 4 billion off next year and 4 the next
there is only so much they can do with regards increasing taxes. There is a limit to what people can take.
When people come under pressure the first things to be neglected tax-wise will be TV license, Car tax, VAT - black markets emerge…

Decembers budget will hit spending, especially Social Welfare. Hitting Social Welfare was too politically sensitive this week with elections/Lisbon 2 due in the interim that is why they went for taxes this time even though it was totally the wrong thing to do in our present state. Cynical? Absolutely - but that politics. I would expect Social Welfare to take at least a €1.5billion cut in December, if not more.

Blindjustice,

There is only so much you can squeeze from a turnip. I think the next budget which could be more likely in October will tip many over the edge (thats if the IMF havent been called in by the meantime). Its off to Newry for me for the booze and fags and nixers for the old man. :wink:

KN, crystal ball time. How do you see the state of play by Xmas?

Can anyone source this procedure for “calling in the IMF” I see mentioned all the time? It seems wildly improbable to me.

As for the next budget, I expect more tax hikes along with small spending cuts for “solidarity” and “spreading the pain”. The spending cuts will naturally simply hit front line services with no attempt to get more for less or generally reform the system.

Do you think that they will tackle the Public Service in the next budget, I noticed that a lot was made of the fact that there are something like 45,000 admin staff for 60,000 front line staff in the HSE.

No. Not ever. They don’t have the liathroidi.

We will, IMO, see a number of quasi-budget cuts through the year - capital spending, redundancies, overtime and perks etc.

Like Partizan, I see another early budget announced in September, happening in October.

Very bad. I am expecting the October/November crucial tax months to be brutal with Corporation and self-employment taxes well below expectations. That will set the scene for a tough on spending budget in December to include a maybe 10% cut in weekly welfare payments except pensions which may be cut by 5% or less.

We’ll get to the local elections I think and FF will get f***ed over as they deserve, this will encourage the shower to call an election or call the IMF as there will be no other options.
The black market will grow from here on in and if those idiots think only putting 25 cents on smokes and 5 cent on diesel will stop people crossing the border have they forgotton about the the income levy’s ability to remove three weeks salary over the period of a year?

At this point in the game people know if you want money to stretch then you leave the jurisdiction. One e.g. of a not so much a big ticket item but expensive enough was friends of our bought a bed in the north made in I think Kildare and €800 cheaper delivered from the north. So it’ll be wagons roll.

How will the Lisbon calculation affect all this? Ganley et al won’t be slow to inform us that it’s the ECB/EU/IMF that did screw/are screwing/will screw us and I imagine it’s a message that will fall on fertile ears if things keep on going the way they are. If Lisbon II falls so does the Government. If there’s another budget in October i don’t think the Government can survive either (unless it’s a giveaway!), so really there is sure to be an election before the end of the year IMO and I think it’s Enda and Eamo who’ll be doing the next budget.

:question:
I would have thought that is the last thing they would do,
if It were me, I’ll stick it out as long as I could and then take credit for any turnaround even if i had nothing to do with it.

I’d love to play you in a game of poker!

Im suggesting July for a budget when the half year figures imply <30b tax with spending not being reined in…

Not possible. Everyone* is on holiday July and August.

*By everyone, I of course mean politicians…

and Plank, and Joe, and Miriam, no one left in RTE to cover it

Really? Theres nothing like confidence in ones ability to put you in your place when you find out that no matter how good you think you are there is always somebody better. :angry:

I have this suspicion (just a gut feeling) that after the local elections, the newly returned councilors will “discover” their local authorities are bankrupt and wont be able to pay wages or keep services running within X weeks without more funds…

which will require more emergency taxes

Following the Egyptian’s example, Brian Lenihan has opted to publish the next budget in hieroglyphics. We here in the Land of Oz have obtained a sneak preview