Now: January 30, 2017: Your predictions to next Dublin crash

I’m getting a sense that Dublin house prices have peaked and that a downward fall is likely in the coming months (my chosen date being September 2017).

Am I alone in this?

What is your personal prediction of the next peak in Dublin House prices?
And by that I mean houses, not apartments.

There are lots of reasons why a crash is unlikely (and they are discussed on here in every second thread). I have been posting on the Pin since 2012 and have always been bullish about property prices (esp in Dublin) as I thought / think they overshot on the way down after the crash. Most on here have taken the opposite view. It’s impossible to know the future of course (especially the volatile international environment) but I don’t see any serious sign of a crash.

Lots of reasons why it is likely.

China hot money flows stalled
EU disintegration
Corp Tax pressures from EU
German inflation

I think housing market looks just like an S&P chart when you factor in what people actually take home NET of tax and after the cost of basics.

Have seen a house recently advertised in an estate at 750k, the final price reached in 2006 in that estate. It needs 100k of work to bring it to standard. 18months ago, a better house traded for 560k. 6 months ago, a bigger and better house traded at 630k also needing work. Didn’t think that would trade at that price…

Prices will stall when Marios magic money shenanigans disintegrate exposing the Euro banking system and getting caught in a wave of sovereign defaults, pushing up interest rates steeply and making other investment opportunities viable. In the meantime there ain’t a lot of places for investors money to flow that offer a decent yield than property.

What is the future for Intel, HP/HPE and Dell/EMC in Ireland? All have large footprints in Ireland in terms of employment. These companies all have Yuge debts to pay down and may well serve as a leading indicator for MNC activity in Ireland in the IT sector anyway.

Leveraged Balance Sheet Doesn’t Deter Intel from Investing in Future - -> … in-future/

Leprechaun Economics: Irish GDP surges 4% in third quarter 2016 - -> … r-2016-741

There’s a big difference between saying you think prices might level out or fall slightly in 2018 and predicting a crash.

There is so little new supply being built that it’s hard to see a crash any time in the next five years even if we have a hard Brexit. Prices are still well below 2007 levels.

On the supply side, there is none and no real prospect for more in the medium term. As many houses are lost through decay and dereliction each year as are being built.

On the demand side we have massive demand in urban areas as rural areas are abandoned, open door migration from the UK and further afield, visa waiver schemes, ‘education’ visas, refugee intakes etc. This is a deliberate policy to force up housing demand, rents and yields.

On the affordability side, the government policy is to get as much credit to first time buyers as the Central Bank will allow while gaming the system with grants and subsidies. As more families see their property return to Boom time levels we are likely to see a false ‘wealth effect’ where they speculate on the market.

We have reached the point in the cycle where the market has become detached from reality and we have no capacity to correct it. It can go on for years and I don’t get any sense that the current government will change it’s policies regardless of the suffering they cause.

With regards Brexit, the collapse of the EU etc; as we have seen in the recent past the ruling elite will throw an entire generation under the bus to save themselves. It doesn’t really matter what happens, you’re fucked.

People are trading up, and if Mover Mark says it’s true, I believe him… - -> … elieve-him

First time buyers who don’t buy new homes - -> … new-homes/

The current activity seems to be people recycling existing properties, activity that was delayed by the bust rather than expansion of the building housing stock. There is a time lag to bring new supply online and there are quite a few apartment developments in the pipeline in the area of the city I live, it will probably be 3 to 4 years before they come to market.

Brexit will, IMO, result in price rises in Dublin.

So I’m looking at some point in 2025 when the financial services agreements with a changed government in the UK is finally agreed.

As I say, I think the new supply is 3 to 4 years way from being available on the market. Whether it is adequate to meet demand I can’t tell. Most of the builders projects in my area at the moment are developers buying run down properties, doing them up and then reselling them often to buy to let (BTL) landlords, but also to solicitors or else people involved in the financial side of the MNC sector. The BTL operators are finding ready tenants from abroad primarily Italy, Portugal, Romania, Bulgaria, Brazil, Middle East, demand from Brazilians has slackened due to domestic conditions in Brazil, rent hikes and more policing of the TEFL language schools.

You are overlooking the big project the insiders are salivating over, the re-float of AIB.

There will be no crash , prices are still a fair bit off what they were 10 years ago.

The impact of Brexit will see an influx of hundreds of well paid legal and financial professionals moving to Dublin and this will only serve to make the already tight supply situation even tighter.

I don’t believe that is viable, at what salary level is it likely to be financially worthwhile making such a move? based on personal experience people in that wage bracket are currently moving out of Dublin. The other aspect is that most of our immigration is concentrated on low wage earners i.e. backoffice and service sector, the professionals we do attract come here for maybe 2 to 3 years and then move on to better paying roles in the UK or on the continent or even Asia.

Prices in Rural Ireland are still very depressed, recent price rise have made sensational headlines but in reality they are not that significant enough to be in any way alarming.

Dublin however is back at stupid levels and although disputed I think many ‘asking’ prices are not that dissimilar to the boom years where people lost their reason. I have said it all along, that any dent to employment confidence will reverse the trend in Dublin but with many companies still enjoying the share-buyback environment of the extended CB interventions it’s little wonder people are now feeling very confident. That will continue until it doesn’t.

I think the ‘Brexit jobs’ pushing up prices meme is a red herring, but the VIs and their media buddies love it. Who knows what chaos Trump will bring.

One last point - the 8 year bull market in equities and the so-called recovery is now 8 years old, that is long by historical measures. A recession in the US is over-due. Trumpenomics will fail IMHO maybe not in the first instance as the markets seem to reflect but in time we will see it is poor strategy.

I see all the upside arguemnts and do not dismiss supply, demand etc. However, when these upside arguments are made consistently dismissing the very real downside risks it suggests to me we are close. Not tomorrow, but soon enough.

Don’t forget the CGT less sellers coming next year too.

Back office could be resuced significantly with automation and other efficiencies etc.

No crash till mortgage interest rates rise.

By my reckoning the median price of a house in Dublin for January is higher than for any month last year or any month since the PPR began (based on preliminary numbers for January on the Property Price Register). Also based on personal anecdotal evidence from viewings in January, asking prices do not reflect the condition of crappy fixer-uppers, suggesting buyer desperation. Hard to see any change on the horizon in the short to medium term.

There’s definitely a bot of this - I’ve heard more than a few people say something like “I can be fucked over in the buying or rental market - I might as well buy something”