NTMA estimates for 2009 and after

The Irish Government’s debt issuance requirement for the period 2009-2011, based on projected Exchequer deficits and the refinancing of maturing debt, is as follows:

Debt Issuance: 2009: €18.5bn
2010: €12.4bn
2011: €12.5bn

Budget deficit: 2009: €13.4bn
2010: €11.2bn
2011: €8.5bn

General Government Debt as % of GDP: 2008: 36.0% 2009: 43.4% 2010: 47.5% 2011: 47.8%
Real GDP Growth: 2008: -1.3% 2009: -0.8% 2010: 2.7% 2011: 3.7%
GDP (€bn) 2008: 187 2009: 188 2010: 196 2011: 208

How can the government expect the GDP to grow by 2.7% and 3.7% in 2010 and 2011?

Pick a figure from thin air?

How can they expect it to only drop by 1.3% in 2009!

It’s worse than that Yoga…

2009: -0.8%

What planet are they on? If anything 2009 will be worse than 2008 surely?

All those figures were given in the Budget appendices i.e. the government fairytale figures to get back to a 3% of GDP deficit in 3 years. The Budget 2009 appendices can be found in the fiction section under the ‘your havin a laugh you are’ heading.

I’m still amazed that the government is planning for the future on the basis that these figures are in any way realistic.

Growth will be at least -5% next year, -0.8% is never going to happen.
That means tax revenues will be way way below the government projections, instead of the deficit being €18.5B it could be well over €25B. The deficit will be closer to 15% of GDP.

What other countries have ever run a couple of years of 15% deficits in the last 20 years?

From the appendix of the budget, the scientific method of economic projection used by those dour FF realists:


Class Larry. :laughing:

It’s not so long since the long delayed ESRI mid term economic review was published… It fudged the numbers spectacularly and I presume that’s what the DoF guys where told to go on and of course, straight line extrapolation of revenues.

LOL and this from Bloomberg today:

And the NTMA thinks Ireland will have negative 0.8% growth in real GDP?

Am I missing something here lads?

Lenihan himself is now saying the economy will contract by 4% next year.

So, are we still at the stage of taking government figures and doubling them?

No, we’re at the stage of taking govt figures and trebling them… the govt are behind the curve and still only at the stage of taking govt figures and doubling them.