Number of mortgages issued just 7pc of rate during boom

Number of mortgages issued just 7pc of rate during boom - Charlie Weston → independent.ie/business/iris … 37519.html

IBF data → ibf.ie/gns/publications/rese … arket.aspx

that is still about 40 mortgages each and every day (3,600/90 days). Actually its probably closer to 50 or 60 mortgages, if you take the non-working days out of the assumption of 90 days.

Anecdotally - we signed contracts yesterday and our solicitor told us November had been his busiest month in two years.
The TRS effect will definitely skew the stats for the last few months of the year it would seem.

congratulations by the way BD

How would these figures compare to, say the early to mid 90s, before the bubble.

This is about 4 mortgages a quarter for every bank branch (3600/900)

these figures would be a good proxy

environ.ie/en/Publications/StatisticsandRegularPublications/HousingStatistics/FileDownLoad,15295,en.XLS

		LOAN  PAYMENTS - ALL AGENCIES 
	(BANKS AND BUILDING SOCIETIES: LOCAL AUTHORITIES)  

	    New Houses		     Other			        Total
	    Number  €m		     Number  €m		      Number  €m
1990	11,290	454.6		 19,761	791.7		  31,051	1246.4
1991	12,044	487.2		 21,676	871.8		  33,720	1358.9
1992	15,019	604.5		 27,025	1152.4		 42,044	1756.9
1993	12,985	584.0		 25,505	1123.2		 38,490	1707.2
1994	16,230	735.8		 30,253	1340.7		 46,483	2076.7
1995	19,320	936.6		 27,715	1347.6		 47,035	2284.0
1996	25,628	1291.6		30,381	1668.1		 56,009	2959.6
1997	28,193	1695.5		29,708	1893.6		 57,901	3589.0
1998	27,355	1967.2		34,052	2619.9		 61,407	4587.1
1999	31,359	2776.8		39,458	3740.1		 70,817	6516.9
2000	31,533	3093.6		42,725	4504.6		 74,258	7598.2

namawinelake.wordpress.com/

The mortgage info on the Nama Winelake homepage is very interesting.

V Surprised to see that Mortgage Volumes peaked in 2005, but that Avg Mortgage Size didnt peak until early 2008 by which time volumes were down around 60%…even by early 2007 volumes had fallen 25%…very surprising.

Although, my memory is that the surge in house prices in 2006/7 was driven to large degree by the upper end of the market.

Hi Yorkie Bar,

Be careful about average mortgage size, remember during the boom/bubble/mania 100% mortgages weren’t unusual, now it seems from anecdote that 70% is the norm though I see officially you can get a 92% mortgage.

Funny that - I am closing on a house the 30th of this month. Decided it was time. (although I do live in US)

I’m not clear what point, if any, he’s making there. Looking at that Namawinelake post, it looks like there were between 7,000 to 11,000 FTBs in any quarter during 2005/2006. So 1,690 FTBs in Q3 2011 is about one-sixth of the number in Q3 2005 or Q3 2006. In fact, its much less than the 3,000 FTBs in Q3 2010.

All of which is to say the sentences I’d be writing are “Less than 1,700 mortgages were taken out by first-time buyers. This is the lowest number of new buyers in any quarter covered by the IBF statistics, which start in Q1 2005”. I mean, 50% of damn all is (uhhh) half of damn all.

I’d agree with you there.

With the caveat that nobody has to buy a house…if you divide buyers into the three groups: FTBs, Movers and Investors…then in my view the first group (FTB) are the part most natural house buyers…movers dont have to move…investors dont have to invest…if an FTB wants to raise a family for example they may feel they want to own a house at that point.

My point being, that of course FTBs are a more resilient buyer group than movers or investors. So of course they form a higher proportion of transactions in a downturn, and a lower proportion in a boom (when they were priced out of it).

Thats a good point, cheers.

Even so; it is interesting that they must have been giving out 100% mortgages until early 2008…ah sure everything is grand once people stop talking down the economy…

Anecdote:
A colleague just got a 90% formal letter of offer from KBC.
AIB only offered 85%, on the grounds she already has a property in the UK.

I haven’t heard the 70% from anyone I know purchasing recently. I don’t know of any 92%ers either tho.

FTBs were buying during the bubble, even if they were priced out if it - they just got more money from the bank. The bubble caused a lot of future demand to be brought forward.

The average age of FTBs fell during the bubble, and is rising during the crash; from 35, down to 30, and now up past 31.

finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews … 2004.shtml
viewtopic.php?f=4&t=13351&start=0