Number of new buildings plummeted nationwide last year

Number of new buildings plummeted nationwide last year - Sarah McCabe → independent.ie/business/iris … 38158.html

How many buildings were shuttered?

Geodirectory has that data too but we never hear it mentioned. :slight_smile:

Fitzgeralds famous 2005 ESRI paper on the empties gave a figure for net annual losses to the housing stock for obsolescence. At say 0.3% per annum (I can’t remember* his* assumed number) that would be 0.3% of an opening stock of 2m homes or 6.7k units obsoleted ( as against 7.9k new adds) giving a net new add of 1.2k units.

If the obsoletion rate is any higher than 0.4% of the stock, per annum, we are losing housing units on an annual net basis since 2011 or so. Mind you a lot of the net losses are on mountains in the west where nobody wants to live, innit!

*Even were *the population perfectly static and also that no houses were created or destroyed we still need new housing units in Ireland as households are getting smaller ( albeit slowly compared to the 1975-2005 era when household sizes shrunk by 0.1 persons every 5 years at least).

How does this sit with the “some rise” coming from other sources - the RIAI was saying that more contract documents were being sold. Is Geodirectory marking “starts on site”, “planning permission applied for”?
“Starts on site” in 2013 would refer to “Planning Permission sought” in 2012 [very roughly].

Planning Permissions are tracked here

viewtopic.php?f=4&t=50687

He came up with historic rates of :
just over 1.0% between 1961 and 71
Just over 0.4% between 71 and 81
Just under 0.6% between 81 and 91
Just over 0.4% between 91 and 96
Just over 0.8% between 96 and 2002
He noted that it seemed to be higher for more recent builds.

UCD Urban Institute use a rate of 0.5%
I can’t imagine much of what was built in the last 20 years lasting, on average, another 180+ years, so reckon 0.5% might be a little on the low side.

50 years for most apartment blocks would be optimistic in my opinion. The figure now might be 0.5%, though in 2060 it might be 2% or more.

+1 Jake:
We are going to see a lot of the Tiger Time apartments fade fast in my opinion also.
Mind you, it is no harm to realise that all buildings have useful physical lifetimes, outside of housing the commercial life to return investment is quite an important development consideration - folk tend to regard housing as somehow immortal!

Unless we’re talking priory hall, they pretty much are immortal?

I had not realised that only c. 25% of Planning Permission granetd per Quarter are for New Construction.

As I said earlier, Planning Permissions are tracked here

viewtopic.php?f=4&t=50687

I will be noting this for all future updates on that thread