Oh, Canada...

That sounds very familiar.

yourhome.ca/homes/moneyshopp … gage-rates

Big banks hike residential mortgage rates

Dollar parity keeps Canadian buyers in U.S. real estate → marketwatch.com/story/dollar … =afterbell

I know it gets real cold in Canada for much of the year, but, would cheap money fuelling bubbles have anything to do with this?

Housing boom shows no signs of slowing → yourhome.ca/homes/newsfeatur … of-slowing

Home prices in Vancouver hit million-dollar landmark → news.sympatico.ctv.ca/Home/Conte … &date=True

[*‘CrackShack or Mansion?’ * (https://www.crackshackormansion.com/) - So you think you know the Vancouver property market?

Excellent!

+1

Just wait until someone this side of the water thinks it’s a good idea to start ‘certifying’ crackshacks here, and those who can’t make a living out of certifying BER ratings feel the need to diversify. FAS will be offering courses and Gormley will be offering grants to owners and NAMA or some newly formed quango wil take them over to have them razed with the other shite.

I can see it all, and the long queue of NE FTBs lining up during night to be first on the list.

Superb that.

Just a few comments about Vancouver. I’ve been to the city first back in 1988 and later then many times during the early parts of the 2000’s.

This city is very abnormal in a few ways from the rest of Canada. The city is effectively the US mirror of Hong Kong. By this I mean that it is heavily populated by Chinese, and also Indian, persons. Furthermore, it is bounded by a mountain range that tends to squeeze the easily developable land to a few limited regions.

This is no way explains what is going on but does in some way outline where some of the money is coming from (the East!). I remeber being there in 2002 and just how few people who I met who were of European origin.

Canada, like Australia and Saudi Arabia is an economy based on the supply of certain commodities such as timber, oil, gas, and wheat, this does not make them immune from booms and busts, but it does provide a cushion in the event of one sector of the economy failing.

Canada’s Housing Bubble: It’s Not Different This Time → network.nationalpost.com/NP/blog … -work.aspx

I reckon once the China bubble pops, that the Canadian and Australian housing bubbles will follow in quick succession.

More accurately to be fair, the Vancouver & Toronto bubbles

Well, I am in York region north of the city. To be honest it’s not very inflated around here. Most of the homes sell for about 14 - 15 times annual rent still. There is a shortage of houses to some degree in some areas like mine and the ones you mention. The greenbelt, and the Oakridge moraine where I live, constrain where they can build.

Families who live in the burbs, live there coz they don’t want to pay millions for their homes, so that also limits the prices they can charge. I don;t see a bubble in the burbs to be honest. $330,000 buys you a decent 3-4 bedroom 2100 - 2300 sq feet home. Well within the affordable range. Taxes are probably another $3000 - $3500 a year on a home like that in the burbs.

Though the prices did drop at the beginning of 2009 by about 10% during the worst of the credit crunch. Now though, the bubble is evident in selling times. They were literally days/hours in some cases.

But outside of Toronto, there are no bidding wars, or multiple bidders. If someone bids on a house, everyone else steps away. So you get fast sales, but never over asking price.

In Toronto, it is a different story, houses selling for 30x annual rent is not unheard off, total bubble country. Also, areas in Durham like Oakville are also way to expensive (white enclave).

The downside of where I live is the prices never go way high, but then they never drop way back either. I like it that way. Toronto and Vancouver can have their bubbles. For me, saving 30 mins on a drive into town is not worth 2-3x the price.

Basically, I have a 4 bedroom 4800 sq ft/445 sq. m home (inc basement), is worth about $540,000 (400k euro). It is only 4 years old, and suits my family of 3 kids, and 3 dogs very well. It’s as big as I would want to get, probably get a bit smaller next time and get more land.

But in Toronto, I could never afford a house like that, probably millions.

The reason for the Toronto bubble and not the burbs, is that Torontonians think you need a passport if you live further than 10 miles outside the city center (I’m not kidding). So most people from Toronto would never move outside. They would rather pay stupid prices for houses that are shit then live in a decent home with a normal mortgage.

I’m happy where I live, the price I paid etc. Talk of bubbles does not really worry me, but if I was in Vancouver, or downtown. Well I’d be worried

Bank of Canada raises rates: Economists’ reaction → business.financialpost.com/2010/ … -reaction/

https://www.chpc.biz/images/APR10-6City.jpg

Vancouver, Toronto, Montreal & Ottawa at Peak Prices → chpc.biz/

Is Canada’s housing bubble about to burst? → thecoast.ca/RealityBites/arc … t-to-burst

Home sales tumble → financialpost.com/news/Home+ … story.html

Canadian Banks are More Prudent on Mortgage Lending than US Banks; I Can Prove It → globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot. … nt-on.html

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GSYxlrE2rXI

canadabubble.com/bubble-article-list/1342-going-broke-canadas-debt-continues-to-mount.html

So by some measure, we less broke than Canada, but they do have a few small advantages which could help them get out of the hole: sitting on the worlds largest uranium deposits, being a net exporter of oil, and having a “knowledge economy” that’s based on more than a bunch of call centres and a corporate tax fiddle.

Nevertheless it seems that running big deficits is an endemic feature of western democracy. Politicians are faced with a decision: tax now to pay down the debt and lose the next election, or win the election and let the debt pile up.

So, Canada is in the middle of a property bubble. It still looks like a great place to emigrate to, especially if you’re restricted to the English speaking world.

On the plus side:
They have natural resources, large deposits of assorted useful minerals, some (expensive to remove) oil, gas, coal. I think natural resources, along with a well educated population, are going to be the key wealth a country can have over the next 50 years.
Massive amounts of arable land, even if it’s only about 5% of the surface area.
Good educational system
US as a neighbour

Negatives:
High national debt
Property bubble
5.8% (iirc) unemployment. Lower in places like Toronto, and significantly higher in places like Labrador.
US as a neighbour (this goes in both pluses and minuses for me.) I’m not 100% sure I’d trust the US not to go invading me if they needed some resources I had for their on-going economic prosperity.

I’m seriously considering emigrating, and Canada is the leading possibility now. Wife and I have what seem secure jobs, but while I can handle austerity and tax raises, and a drop in our standard of living without it upsetting me much (never was one for flashy anything), I don’t see anything changing through this crisis that would make me feel this is going to be the end of us doing this demented shite to ourselves every 25 years or so.

So, as nothing looks like changing, except us possibly becoming Germany’s bitch as well as Fianna Fails, then, emigrating now seems like a good plan while my twins are so young that they won’t even notice. I dislike the idea of hanging around for the next one of these and seeing my children have to emigrate instead of me.

Can anyone give me economic arguments against betting my families future on Canada? I’m resigned to renting over there, so a property bubble that hopefully seems to be starting to end isn’t a great worry unless I’m wrong in thinking it won’t tear their country apart like the mega-bubble we built.

I lived in Ottawa for 10 years, moved back in 08. On the economic front, there’s nothing to argue about, Canada wins hands down. But leaving a secure job to go may not be the best idea. Not all qualifications will be recognised over there…

It’s not such an exciting place, but maybe you don’t want to live in exciting times.

Be careful where you live, weather conditions in some parts can be very extreme, with up to 5 months of snow cover.

That was my last winter there :wink: