Oh, Canada...


#141

Using the patented Coles2/JXBR short-term property price projection methodology (CJSTPPPM) based on a lag between consumer sentiment and the rolling year on year % price change, I did the following.

I got Canadian consumer sentiment data from the OECD - conferenceboard.ca/ and I am not that interested). The only series available for a long duration is quarterly, from Q2-1980 to Q2-2012. There is a monthly series but it is only available from Jan-2002 to Jul-2012. A simple linear interpolation of the quarterly values agreed closely with the month values - R-squared of 0.9579 - so I went with the converted quarterly values.

This applies to the property index series “Whole Country Single-Family Houses New National Statistical Office Per Square Meter Index, 2007 = 100” for all of Canada and so is very generalised and does not take into account local variations.

The best correlation between the consumer sentiment and the year on year % price change is obtained at a lag of 6 months - R-squared of 0.7657. Not as high as I would have liked but it is the best I could get.

Notwithstanding previous comments made elsewhere about time series heteroskedasticity and unexpected external interventions, the outcome from this is:

Consumer sentiment dipped slightly in the last 6 months so based on this magical technique, Canadian property prices should either fall slightly but not significantly or remain at their current levels with localised variations.

Thank you folks. I am available for birthday parties, bar mitzvahs, bat mitzvahs and other special occasions.


#142

Border war: Costco customers in Washington blame Canada for shopping hell -> foxnews.com/us/2012/08/15/co … ian-crowd/


#143

:smiley: I think you need to squeeze in the initials of Terra Incognito in there too. I think it was TI who got the ball rolling.


#144

I’ve done a similar study of Australia and will post it when I get a chance.


#145

I have scheduled myself to do similar analyses for Spain, Portugal and Greece to try to estimate how far their property prices should have fallen when compared to the current alleged falls, which do not seem as large as they should. I just have to work up the interest in deciphering the less than comprehensible European Commission consumer sentiment data.


#146

Greece is likely to defy any logic but it may be interesting
Prices hardly budged at the start of the crisis
Possibly due to the ‘cash economy’ for transactions and the lack of mortgages on properties in general!


#147

Vancouver crashing finally!!

business.financialpost.com/2012/ … ince-1998/

“Vancouver home sales plunge, posting second-worst August since 1998”


#148

It was either here or the scary charts thread…:

Full article:
doctorhousingbubble.com/cana … al-estate/


#149

:frowning:


#150

To the old clichéd interview question ‘What are your strengths ?’, comes the even more clichéd answer of ‘I learn from other people’s mistakes’.

Looking at those 2 charts, the thread title couldn’t be more apt.


#151

bcrea.bc.ca/news-and-publica … al-release


#152

Some cause for concern:

business.financialpost.com/2012/ … t-shiller/

The analysts at my mutual fund claim the Canadian real estate market will fall by up to 25% in two years. How they came to that conclusion exactly I do not know.

The post by jxbr is impressive, and encouraging for us Canadian property owners, but I think I’m going to hold off on buying a Toronto investment condo for a year or two.


#153

Thanks for the hat tip. I was slightly miffed at not being credited above I don’t want to become the Rosland Franklin to your Watson and Crick. :wink:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rosalind_Franklin


#154

I bet it was your wife’s idea. She’s the clever one in your double act. :wink:


#155

Who do you think you’re talking to?


#156

I’m really not sure.


#157

huffingtonpost.ca/2012/09/10 … 71140.html


#158

Moody’s says may downgrade several Canadian banks -> reuters.com/article/2012/10/ … 2720121026

Vancouver home sales to slip -> theglobeandmail.com/report-o … le4672797/

Homes: Sprucing up instead of trading up -> vancouversun.com/business/bc … story.html


#159

huffingtonpost.ca/2012/11/02 … 51709.html


#160

It’s Official: Canada Housing Market Slowing, But by How Much?

blogs.wsj.com/canadarealtime/201 … -how-much/