Oil and Gas fields off the Irish Coast


#221

I wondered how long it would be before SF found some reason to blame the Government for the earthquake!:

(of course it is irrelevant to these morons that no seismic survey had started, nor that it would not cause an earthquake anyway. Still - I expect MaryOCarroll et al to come along soon… )

mayonews.ie/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=15439:earthquake-sparks-fears-over-safety-of-corrib-gas-field&catid=23:news&Itemid=46


#222

independent.ie/business/iris … 20663.html

Matt Cooper has an column on this in today’s examiner - can’t find a link as of yet.


#223

Taxing question of what we should do with our own oil discoveries -> irishexaminer.com/opinion/co … 06728.html


#224

surely Ireland will not fluke its way out of the deficit!?

rte.ie/news/2012/1010/providence-gives-update-on-basal-wealdon-well-business.html

proposed 41 horizontal production and 22 horizontal water wells is a very sizeable development on a par with West African projects


#225

Could having a sizable oil resource in a post peak oil world mean we could become a plaything/battleground for the great powers?


#226

All we have to do is ask for some outside help, what could go wrong?


#227

Hasn’t harmed Norway


#228

Optimistically:

1.8 billion barrels x 31% recovery rate = 560 million barrels x $100/bbl = 56 billion dollars
56 billion dollars x 10% profit margin x 25% tax rate = 1.4 billion dollars.

So … about one twentieth of the Anglo bailout over 25 years.


#229

providenceresources.com/sear … es&x=0&y=0

londonstockexchange.com/exch … 6IEGBXASQ1

funny the market cap is still only £ 440.32 million …


#230

i dont think they will get the funding and the field economics are marginal with that amount of wells needed


#231

you generally don’t just find an isolated commercial find - expectation would be if there is one field there then there are more


#232

That’s true, but boy do we need a helluva lot of them to make any dent in our economic fortunes.


#233

Any guesstimates yet on the cost per barrel of extraction?


#234

No, but off shore is expensive. I stuck a finger in the air and took a number similar to Exxon’s profit margin of 8%. They’re one of the so-called integrated companies with extraction, refining, and retail businesses, so quite a different beast. However, energy companies tend to be high turnover, low margin.


#235

To answer my own question, there is this:
proactiveinvestors.co.uk/com … 48969.html

Let’s say $30 with some padding over the lifetime. And the optimistic price of $100 (personally I think oil prices will settle on average about half that). Anyway, about 10 million barrels a year times 70 = 700 million profit @25% (not sure when the 40% rate kicks in?) = 175 million a year.

edit: crossing with your Exxon post - I think we need to know whether that is company net profit or net profit from drilling?


#236

Not authorative, but it looks like the profit from refining and retailing is very low, whereas crude oil production could be up to 30%:
switchboard.nrdc.org/blogs/smui/ … ke_on.html

A good deal more than I would have guessed. And that’s net of (US) tax. I still think your $70/bbl profit is way too high. Offshore oil is super expensive to produce. Don’t know about production rigs, but exploratory ones are hired and cost up to a million a day. Anyway, taking your number for the sake of argument … still not earth shattering from a tax revenue POV, unfortunately. And it won’t be arriving soon either – all the costs can be written off before any tax has to be paid on profits. And the production curve normally starts low and ramps up. So could easily be a decade before any money hits the state coffers.

Interested to know why you think medium term oil prices will be only $50/bbl. The current price has all the economic doom and gloom built in. If the economy was buoyant it could easily see $200. The harder-to-get oil probably wouldn’t be commercially viable at $50. Canadian oil sands only start making profits at $80. Saudi oil is probably still produced for <$10/bbl but the prices are set at the margins, and e.g. offshore oil is much less profitable.


#237

Prices are set at demand margins, not at production margins…


#238

But the marginal production barrel is produced by a Saudi tap


#239

All of the fall off in demand in the US and Europe, and more, has been more than made up for in China and India so far. Unless the entire world is headed for recession, I can’t see the Brent benchmark price going below $100. And even if it does, I can’t see it staying there.


#240