Ominous signs in Australia


#2511

businessinsider.com.au/sydn … gic-2018-6

Sydney:

Melbourne:

Brisbane:

Perth:

Adelaide:

afr.com/real-estate/brisban … 604-h10yg2

So typical, now that prices are falling the ‘experts’ are pointing out that it due all along


#2512

Mandurah! It’s where all the cashed up bogans cashed out.


#2513

and still falling in Perth!


#2514

smh.com.au/business/banking … 4zjr9.html

also today:

smh.com.au/business/the-eco … 4zjqz.html

solid GDP figure, will be watching the unemployment rate when its out on the 14th of June
abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6202.0

This is still a little too early for a housing decline to come up in these figures


#2515

but a soft landing in the end…


#2516

propertyupdate.com.au/how-much- … 01fbc5b8c5

We really do have shit systems that make people like that millionaires


#2517

First SQM research predicted property would drop 4%
abc.net.au/news/2018-05-07/s … de/9734388

Then Morgan Stanley reckoned 8%
marketsandmoney.com.au/you- … 018/05/23/

now the prediction, from ANZ Bank, is 10%
smh.com.au/business/banking … l#comments

This is what has actually happened so far:

abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lat … num=&view=

also adjust for population their building rate isn’t anywhere near our infamous 90,000 dwellings a year

The floor really depends on whether supply has been above demand or not and you can find cases for both. The fact of the matter is that a huge amount of property purchased in the last 10 years here has been speculative and with interest only loans. ‘Equity release’ has also been a big player and people are in debt up to their eyeballs.

news.com.au/finance/economy … 50d6318184

Rents would indicate that demand has probably been met. Which is likely why the inward migration program is being run at all time highs (peaked in February with 84,440 new long term arrivals). January to April (inclusive) this year has seen 241,480 long term arrivals (these are new, it does not include returning).

The data is buried in here:
abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf … enDocument

as part of a media release that makes no mention of it
abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Pro … enDocument
The population here will hit 25 million in less than a month
abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Web … t&ref=HPKI

The next long term drought in the densely populated areas will hit hard.


#2518

APRA tightened lending to investors in 2017 to take the sting out of the market however they have eased this tightening in 2018…presumably as they may see the market dropping more than anticipated.
Still, with the massive amount of immigration I’m not sure if it will correct strongly. Hard to tell


#2519

Thats right, as long as they can keep increasing inward migration they`ll keep some sort of a floor under any correction.
Its hard to know if the banks are at risk systemically though. The real test hasnt happened yet.

If an 8 - 10% drop does occur it wipes out alot of equity. My guess is the banks are in trouble if there is a 10% drop this time.


#2520

abc.net.au/news/2018-06-19/f … st/9886430

:open_mouth:


#2521

This is why wages are going nowhere, as already posted there no longer is a skills shortage in Australia as many new migrants struggle to find anything but menial work.

abc.net.au/news/2018-06-20/l … sa/9883386

more info:

macrobusiness.com.au/2018/0 … e-locally/


#2522

AX hits 10 year high
smh.com.au/business/markets … 11lls.html


#2523

Quite a different prediction:

afr.com/markets/housing-dow … 621-h11nqd


#2524

https://product.datastream.com/dscharting/gateway.aspx?abcnewsembedheight=430&action=REFRESH&guid=f7c57a11-0fd1-4372-a31b-1af48f0de9b3

abc.net.au/news/2018-06-27/b … ke/9914990


#2525

bloomberg.com/graphics/2018 … umer-debt/


#2526

amp.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/the-epicentre-of-the-downturn-sydney-housing-slump-to-last-until-at-least-2020-say-economists-20180719-p4zsa9.html

The ‘epicentre of the downturn’: Sydney housing slump to last until at least 2020, say economists


#2527

afr.com/real-estate/residen … 915-h15fq6


#2528

Bricks and slaughter: Part one - Exposing Australia’s housing crisis | 60 Minutes Australia


#2529

Went onto the second part two, comments disabled. It’s going to be a bloodbath.


#2530

professionalplanner.com.au/ … or-a-rout/

That is well worth a read

again, worth a read