Ominous signs in Australia


#2481

Immigration is essential to the Sydney market/bubble. Bad for migrants like me in long run as it fosters resentment. I really dont want a scenario where the living standards collapse here.

Cram them in. Also hints, if you delve into details, that Melbourne and Brisbane still have decent living standards if you take the view that population growth from first world people (whether births or internal migration) mean its an ok place. Also by that measure population growth almost entirely by 3rd world migration combined with locals leaving = dropping living standards.

Changing opinion (its always had polls in favour of migration since most people here are migrants)

Wage growth is damned in the long term due to this latent supply/underemployment.

If Australia keeps building up population it will lose more and more of its agricultural exports to home demand. Essentially the economy is FIRE, mining and agriculture with the latter two bringing in the foreign currency that allows Australia to import finished goods (mostly from China like everywhere else in the West does). Any drops in exports decrease living standards. Therefore while higher population makes the government look better with higher GDP the GDP per capita in real terms is dismal here. The place has been going backwards for a while and people are only now starting to realise.

news.com.au/finance/economy/ … e7478fcbf9


#2482

A large amount of migrants are skilled, which is a positive for the economy. The unskilled who end up staying are students. Who usually pay 30-40k per year for their tuition alone. So Australia easily benefits from over $120k per person (before other costs). At the end of their degree they can apply for a job and visa to stay in Oz. They are young so they are not a liability to the economy. The money for these students is usually from Chinese and Indian parents etc who want the Western lifestyle for their kids and the parents will benefit from them as well. It’s a form of manufacturing as it brings so much $ into the economy.
Then, construction is needed to house them and its a good employer. Particularly non skilled men who are happy to labour.
Sydney and Melbourne are the best cities with the big/popular Unis so that’s where a lot of the demand is.
The population increase helps support the tax burden/liability of the elderly on the young etc.

Edit, I do think the sting needs to taken out of the price of Sydney/Melbourne property.


#2483

and who takes care of them/helps support the tax burden of the elderly on the old when they get old?
Sound like a population ponzi scheme?

The whole economy is being skewed by several bit ticket items. One of which is changing education into a full on export business.


#2484

Would you have the same objections to rising population caused by birth rate? What sort of measures would you propose if that were the case? One child policy?


#2485

natural birth rates rise and fall naturally, dumping the third world on the west would at worst reduce the west to third world conditions and at best reduce the standard of living

news.com.au/national/victori … 11caf711ad


#2486


businessinsider.com.au/aust … ril-2018-4


#2487

That’s not an answer to my question.


#2488

Natural increases/decreases in the west are flattening out to stable populations so its all moot
Migration is a great tap to help during booms like the recent mining boom to keep a lid on competitiveness. At the moment wages are flat at a time of high debt and a housing bubble and rental shortage in the main migrant destinations. It really just looks like the record breaking rate of migration is simply being used to prop up the property bubble which is just going to end in a drop in the quality of life/standard of living etc etc.


#2489

Adelaide city centre:

adelaidenow.com.au/business/ … 2140a7a51b

adelaidenow.com.au/news/adel … ebaca425a5

adelaidereview.com.au/opini … fail-sell/


#2490

old news

abc.net.au/news/2017-09-13/h … en/8939984

recent news

remember the average interest only reset will add $7,000 a year onto repayments


#2491

RC info coming out:

Westpac mortgage customers’ debt-to-income ratio

abc.net.au/news/2018-04-26/b … n=business

as we know from recent GFC era history delinquencies rise when prices fall

mobile.twitter.com/DeniseBraile … 7281373185


#2492

State Arrears Oct 2017

December 2017

digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog … -defaults/

and April 2018 info:

digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/


#2493

news.com.au/finance/real-est … b93c24e479

Insignificant reductions

sbs.com.au/news/business-co … ation-rate

sbs.com.au/news/berejiklian … bout-right


#2494

But population decline is a bad thing! :stuck_out_tongue:


#2495

businessinsider.com.au/west … ket-2018-5


#2496

theage.com.au/national/vict … 4ze5z.html


#2497

came across this, from 1987 or thereabouts

businessinsider.com.au/this … lia-2015-1


#2498

domain.com.au/news/more-aus … edium=link

I wonder what the figure is for Ireland


#2499

news.com.au/finance/economy/ … dc62faea58
abc.net.au/news/2018-05-16/r … se/9765948

Control supply and says its because infrastructure cant cope with the population increase but do nothing about the record high migration rates
Its simply all about propping up the bubble


#2500

afr.com/news/means-test-the- … 520-h10aqc

afr.com/personal-finance/sup … 510-h0zwp4