Ominous signs in Australia


Just the very beginning of the commission into lending for business… … 4zgvp.html

#2502 … l-so-high/

wage growth going nowhere

#2503 … stand-lmi/ … k-bailout/

#2504 … 527-h10m0z

#2505 … ters-80bn/

#2506 … b88853701z

Sound familiar? … 4zity.html


that is an absolutely damning stat.


I wonder what “with” means. Are these second properties owned outright? If so, fine. They’re no more or less likely to lose money than the stock market, and are ok as part of a balanced portfolio. If they’re bought with I/O loans, then holy fuck.


Well it says “under their belt”, so could mean they are caught by the short and curlies :-GC


edited to include all graphs in one post

#2511 … gic-2018-6





Adelaide: … 604-h10yg2

So typical, now that prices are falling the ‘experts’ are pointing out that it due all along


Mandurah! It’s where all the cashed up bogans cashed out.


and still falling in Perth!

#2514 … 4zjr9.html

also today: … 4zjqz.html

solid GDP figure, will be watching the unemployment rate when its out on the 14th of June

This is still a little too early for a housing decline to come up in these figures


but a soft landing in the end…

#2516 … 01fbc5b8c5

We really do have shit systems that make people like that millionaires


First SQM research predicted property would drop 4% … de/9734388

Then Morgan Stanley reckoned 8% … 018/05/23/

now the prediction, from ANZ Bank, is 10% … l#comments

This is what has actually happened so far: … num=&view=

also adjust for population their building rate isn’t anywhere near our infamous 90,000 dwellings a year

The floor really depends on whether supply has been above demand or not and you can find cases for both. The fact of the matter is that a huge amount of property purchased in the last 10 years here has been speculative and with interest only loans. ‘Equity release’ has also been a big player and people are in debt up to their eyeballs. … 50d6318184

Rents would indicate that demand has probably been met. Which is likely why the inward migration program is being run at all time highs (peaked in February with 84,440 new long term arrivals). January to April (inclusive) this year has seen 241,480 long term arrivals (these are new, it does not include returning).

The data is buried in here: … enDocument

as part of a media release that makes no mention of it … enDocument
The population here will hit 25 million in less than a month … t&ref=HPKI

The next long term drought in the densely populated areas will hit hard.


APRA tightened lending to investors in 2017 to take the sting out of the market however they have eased this tightening in 2018…presumably as they may see the market dropping more than anticipated.
Still, with the massive amount of immigration I’m not sure if it will correct strongly. Hard to tell


Thats right, as long as they can keep increasing inward migration they`ll keep some sort of a floor under any correction.
Its hard to know if the banks are at risk systemically though. The real test hasnt happened yet.

If an 8 - 10% drop does occur it wipes out alot of equity. My guess is the banks are in trouble if there is a 10% drop this time.

#2520 … st/9886430