Ominous signs in Australia


#2601

reuters.com/article/us-aust … SKCN1P803G


#2602

#2603

Expert warns Australia could turn into slums in 20 years | 60 Minutes Australia

Opal Tower Turmoil | A Current Affair Australia

Sense of Déjà Vu watching these.


#2604

^ just watching this now, aye carumba. The Oz version of Priory Hall


#2605

12.07pm smh.com.au/business/markets … 1b399.html


#2606

Train wreck TV


#2607

Surprise, surprise. The worst negative equity is in the new developments in far out suburbs, where people got high LTVs to “get on the ladder”. Sounds familiar.


#2608

smh.com.au/business/banking … 50z7z.html


#2609

‘Let the bloodbath begin’: House prices in Sydney and Melbourne ‘could halve’ in worst crash since 1890s
news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/let-the-bloodbath-begin-house-prices-in-sydney-and-melbourne-could-halve-in-worst-crash-since-1890s/news-story/5918ea13042d5f819cb13c77629f060a

report from twitter.com/linzcom

‘Irresponsible’ agents blamed as top end property plunges by 40pc
afr.com/real-estate/irresponsible-agents-blamed-as-top-end-property-plunges-by-40pc-20190222-h1bllg


#2610

news.com.au/finance/real-es … 193bed7850

The bit in bold is part of the ever growing list of reasons why mainstream media has lost

This will be huge. It hasnt really begun either.


#2611

afr.com/real-estate/irrespo … 222-h1bllg


#2612

Australia recently lost 50,000 direct jobs in car manufacturing
smh.com.au/business/the-eco … kx1c8.html
its 90,000 or so since 2014 approx
news.com.au/jobs-and-8-bill … 0ecb49d7fd

amazing what a property bubble can mask


#2613

I don’t know if you’re a Kath and Kim fan but this line always hit home on the whole Australian Dream aspiration.

:smiley:


#2614

theage.com.au/politics/fede … 510im.html


#2615

abc.net.au/news/2019-02-28/ … s/10854500


#2616

In 2009 Ireland lost 84700 jobs in construction. Population was around 4.5m. 1.8% of the population.
finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews … 9314.shtml

100,000 job losses in Oz with a current population of 24.6m => 0.4%

I believe there will be carnage in the construction sector in Oz but is the country as dependant on construction as Ireland was in 2007?


#2617

Flipping property in of itself is a huge industry in Australia and even if construction took a hit there’d be a huge knock on on the white van man sector and the general real estate churn machine.


#2618

Yeah, I wonder what the FIRE multiplier of actual construction workers is?


#2619

news.com.au/finance/busines … 10b0d5d7f5
‘Westpac cleaned me out’: Builder spends six years in the bush after $165,000 mortgage wipe-out
Today, the 64-year-old lives in the bush, where it’s free.
Mr Heath says the “real kick in the teeth” was having to quickly scrounge together $1100 from friends to pay his solicitor’s fees for the property settlement.
“I looked at my wallet and there was about $25 there,” he said.
“I walked out onto the road and basically sat on the footpath and had a bit of a cry. I’m a proud man, I didn’t want any of this to happen.”
He now says he “never understood” how, at the “ripe old age” of 56, the bank could give him a 30-year loan he would be paying off until his late 80s.
Mr Heath believes it’s “possible” his loan approval did not adhere to responsible lending guidelines. At the time, he was already struggling with a $20,000 credit card bill.
Since 2013 Mr Heath has lived on the road in his 2006 model 4WD and camper trailer.
“At the moment I’m at the showgrounds with power and water and hot showers for $10 a night,” he said.
“I eat reasonably well, clothe myself. My costs are fuel to move, food, registration and insurance. I don’t do too bad. I don’t drink or smoke. My dog is quite large, so he is quite expensive.”
Mr Heath says he wants to join the class action mainly to see the banks held accountable.
“I read the other day some clown was going to get the bullet, but he’ll walk away with over $1 million,” he said.
“Hold these people accountable, and by accountable I mean lock them up. Some of these bank managers, take their homes away from them.”


#2620

2015-16 ^ figure, it has boomed since

latest aussie figures (in seasonally adjusted terms) are for November 2018 put Construction at just over 1.1 million workers
abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf … enDocument
out of a total employed of almost 12.7 million

Ireland:

rte.ie/news/business/2018/0 … struction/

Irish experience was 10% of the jobs disappearing in the first year

cso.ie/en/csolatestnews/pre … 08edition/
note the RTE figure and the CSO are different - possibly reporting different quarters except the difference is likely too big for that?!

This puts the irish labour force at 2.2 million in Q2 2007 (table 2)
esri.ie/system/files?file=m … 201234.pdf

So its looking like approx 8% of aussie employment and 12% Irish at the peaks. The difference in the structure of the economies is important as Australia has many large engineering project construction related to ports/mining etc. One of the links above put 60% of Irish construction employment being residential.

I think another difference that is important here is the sheer debt the Australian consumer is in. Using property as a credit card is the norm. Remortgaging rates and by how much on average would be a good comparison to do next between countries.
Also the interest only loan stuff here is simply amazing, absolutely stunning. Not sure Irelands banks were as bad actually! Again another good comparison to do.