On the Popping of commodity bubbles

I can predict that oil will come down much faster than house prices on the Ghost Estates will.

I am not quite sure when though, in time for winter I suspect now. Oil about $80 for christmas. Lets see.

timesonline.co.uk/tol/commen … 980797.ece

Somer fecker looked at them fundamentals lads , eg demand , what he found was most intruiging .

Oil tried to retest its top of 22nd May (135$) yesterday, but only made it to 133. Now just under 130$. If it closes below 130$ the shorts will pile on.

Lads, yez wouldn’t listen to me on March 17th!

thepropertypin.com/viewtopic … 6049#66049

people laughed when they heard the projection of $100 oil last year! i think that the Exxon Mobil AGM tomorrow will be most telling, in fact the one thing that might get OPEC to agree to extra production and distribution will be the move or threatened move to alternatives, because if that happens oil will certainly take a fall, why? because OPEC will flood the market trying to make oil cheap enough to stymie the investment capital from moving into alternatives.

a peak and pear back in oil has happened a good few times since we passed the $100 mark and it seems the market tests the elastic limit of price and comes back a bit before passing it again. its happened about 5 times this year already

I also read somewhere that commodities are exhibiting one of the classic signs of a bubble: buying futures in expectation of a price gain, as opposed to buying them to ensure supply at a particular price.

Think of it as all those flippers who bought off plan in the expectation that when the property was completed they would be able to sell it at a profit or even flip it before delivery…

Its gone up another 10% at least since *you *opened your mouth .

Ah but look at the price of gold!

I said this in the gold thread and I was bang on time. :wink:

I don’t follow commodies bar the in yer face petrol prices about.

I guess he means global consumption growth has decreased to 0.7mbd. Maybe that consumption growth decrease is simply the decrease in supply growth. If supply wasn’t a problem, then producers would be upping their output for these higher prices - and at just 0.7mpd obviously they are not - probably because they can’t. So it makes more sense to me that supply is slowing down and not demand as he says. So maybe we are nearing the top of the peak oil curve.

Yeah, just like Apple with the ipod and the iphone…

Kaletsky is just talking his book. He’s an inflationist and has never met an interest rate he didn’t want to cut. He’s been a longtime critic of the ECB and it’s relatively strict monetary policy. He’s the Kal part of GaveKal, a happy clappy, “this time it’s different”, investment firm.

“At GaveKal, we have argued at length over recent years that one of the driving forces of the financial markets was the “financial revolution” which was quietly moving from the US and other Anglo-Saxon countries unto the rest of the world. Today, this financial revolution seems to be, at the very best, “put on hold”. So what impact should that have on our investment decisions?”

The financial revolution they’re talking about is the packaging and (mis)selling of crappy debt to the rest of the world.
Look I think oil prices have moved too far too fast, but this guy is just talking his book. I far more trust the opinion of John Taylor.
news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080528/bs_ … cFiNfv5rEF