On The Unravelling of Construction Sector Loans

This is a graphic from the WSJ, We are about a year behind the US. Loans to builders are 'secured 'there and here


AND


Do your own math !

Just curious, what is the basis for your statement that there is a correlation between the US and Irish housing sectors, albeit a 1 year lag?

Its observational Tipsy, the US peaked in 2005 and we peaked in 2006 . Certain others around here tend to agree with me …I am not daft enough to think that they all do :slight_smile:

They are therefore a year further into the post bubble decline than we are. Spain is arguably somewhere in between …maybe 4-6 months ahead of us and 6-8 month behind the US .

Therefore our future can be said to be their present and to quite a degree of correlation in MY opinion.

https://www.tutor2u.net/newsmanager/articlefiles/1460-interest_rates.gif

The US residential housing market topped in Summer 2005, ours topped in Summer 2006, effectively a year lag. Ireland does not operate independently of the global market, our currency is the €uro. You will notice there is a lag in the time the ECB started raising interest rates hence the year delay.

Most of the reckless sub-prime, jumbo loans were made during the 2005/2006 period with a two to three year low introductory payment, this is why the crisis only became apparent to the mainstream in Summer 2007 as the first of the resets started and defaults soared leading to hedge funds imploding.

Effectively the Irish banks can no longer provide the cheap finance to Irish developers and they are burning through their cash reserves as cash flow from buyers and investors has effectively dried up. Developers reserves are not infinate and they are having to sell other assets to meet those requirements (e.g. Bernard McNamara/SuperValu). We already know that all bnks capital is tied up with developers.

I think we can all guess which “certain institutions” these might be…

oh? what are they hinting at?

Well if they were sure they could have named names , I doubt if the Guardian is afraid of the Irish Financial ‘Regulator’ .

I have heard a swirl of background rumours myself but I am not publicising any of them because its bloody hard nowadays to discern the signals from the background noise.

Irish Nationwide is the one they clearly hinting at.

Superquinn, not Supervalu, they are part of the Musgrave group. But that sale was of his stake was a clear indicator of distress.

So whats that now the Musgrave, Group owns, Supervalue, Superquinn & The Centra Franchise Supply Network?
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Point of Note, these are usually the most expensive places to shop in my opinion. *

The Great Gouge creates a Great depression.

Superquinn is not part of Musgraves. Musgraves hold the SupeValu, Centra and Londis brands.

Ok, swap S/Quinn with Londis and you still have the same large chunk of crap choice and poor value :cry: S/Quinn is pricey too mind. However we shall forgive them as they sell fresh fish… its not that long ago there was a fresh Fish counter where Zara is… enough of wandering.

Yes SQ is a rip off and it’s been going downhill since it was bought out a couple of years ago but damn it, their sausages are incredible. One of the few things (decent Guinness also springs to mind) I missed about home when I was living abroad.

yeah - Living in Cork I really miss the Superquinn sausages, and the sausage-meat if you want to make a pie (layers of sausage meat, apple, tomatoes, and mashed potato on top - 180 for 1 hour or so) - great for a cold day, and even better with the left-over bits reheated next day. Ummmm…
Yet again going OT… I know, I know…db.