opinions please

myhome.ie/search/development … l&id=15658

guys this is a small development I’ve been watching and will be bying here sometime after the dust has settled.

current prices 4 bed - €450,000 and 3 bed at €300,000

the build qaulity is actually very good so how much do you all reckon these will fall by?

personally i’m reckoning somewhere around the €250,000 for the 4 bed and €190,000 for the 3 bed but would appreciate opinions.

i’m also expecting to see falls here soon as the current estate im in (Cityside) beside there dropeed their prices by 60k a few months back and was well covered in the paper and now the other new estate beside us literally has not sold 1 apt there yet and have scaled back plans from 4 round towers to just 1. the EA in Creston also said the houses have been selling well and theres only a few left but then again she said the exact same thing me to me in November and theres only around 30-40 houses in this developemt :laughing: :laughing: :laughing:

Ask to see the location of the remaining unsold units as you’re interested in buying - she won’t hide any available units then because she’ll want to give you as much choice as possible in order to make the sale.

I suspect you might not be too far wrong with your expectations re price though.

Yep, your prices are around about the upper limit of the falls I’m expecting. Could take 5 years to hit that though.

Ah Meakstown, Finglas. One area I predict will be hit harder than most when the bubble bursts.

My friend bought against my advice in a City Gate development… The one near the traveller camp. He paid 320K for a two bed room and financed it with 100% mortgage he is now in negative equity. A nicer one in city side around the corner is advertised for 285K “new with no stamp duty” so must have been a one the developer was keeping and now is bailing out now that the ship is sinking! a sign of confidence in the pricing of the area.

I cant comment about build quality in the Creston but i hope its not timber framed with insufficient insulation like others in the area. There are stories on neighbours.ie of action being taking against developers to try and get them to do something about the quality of insulation, the noise level is unbearable in more than one development in the area.

Local TD Rosin Shorthall has queried why the council accepted payment instead of insisting that the area get the required amount of open public space. “Locals to suffer as Fingal and Developers divide up the spoils in Meakstown Developmentsâ€

WTF!? You’re really expecting €450,000 to drop to €250,000???!!! That’s -55.5% :open_mouth:

And I thought it was just the VI’s that were being unrealistic in the property market! :unamused:

You consistently post comments with no back-up! Why? Add to the debate in a constructive manner!

I would say its a little off the mark but not much, its the up and coming finglas west/ballymun of the future. 3 beds end of terrace there are about 300k at the mo and usually have more space for parking etc when compared to meakstown & as a general rule are more sturdy and not subject to the extortionate management fees

id say 210k 3bd 235k 4bd in todays money 5 years time

Pill> What backup do you want me to post? If the OP had said €400,000 or even €350,000 then I would say Ok. But maybe I’m just completely naiive never have experencied such a slump in prices before, but 55.5% just seems excessive to me and my poor brain.

Hi Crash and Burn how much do you think such houses in finglas are worth?

Lets take 2 couple with an income of 32k each, they can borrow a max of 288k per BOI web site at the moment.

How in the name of god are these places worth near what they are asking to start off with. Rent on a similar 4 bed is running at about 1400 per month. A 30 year mortgage on this property would be 2434!!!

daft.ie/searchrental.daft?search=1&s[cc_id]=ct1&s[a_id]=pc12&s[mnp]=&s[mxp]=1500&s[bd_no]=4&s[search_type]=rental&s[refreshmap]=1&limit=8&search_type=rental&id=465757

When you start to consider the area in question and the probable future economic climate its not that hard to see how much these will fall by

Well, it’s -44.5%, but still a huge drop by anyone’s standards.

What about this in Florida? Greater than 50% drop by my calculation:
winknews.com/news/local/7896352.html?video=YHI&t=a

Woops, ok, that Florida link was posted a few times! :slight_smile:

yeah its a huge drop but when you consider the drops already seen by most here before this has even begun to really snowball plus the rate hikes affecting mortgage levels coupled with the irratinal exuberace in the market in the first place I thinkn its very realistic IMHO. I’m in no rush to buy anyway so can take my time in watching :slight_smile:

the area where these are is not too bad and is a no where near the bad areas of Finglas. however, as i currently rent in Cityside (which really are built absolutely terribly as already mentioned) which is 2 mins from them I can see the problem.

st margerats road has been terribly over developed in the last year and a half to the extent that people have to Q up about 15 cars long just to get out of the estates. the road infrastructure is terrible and it’s only going to get worse with the other 2 developments due to come on stream soon enough (providing they can get buyers which they currently do not have any).my only saving grace is that I can dodge this traffic by taking advantage of the civil services flexi time :slight_smile:

at the end of the day its bloody Finglas / Ballymun and €450,000 for a house here is ludicrously over priced in an area that had its “social problems” (to put it nicely) and I aint a snob either as I grew up in Donaghmede which was similiar enough to Finglas

I had to reply, first of all i have a vested interest :smiling_imp: i live in the area ,we all know the market will take a hit, just to pick up on a point, apartments with brutal sound insulation and hefty management fees will take a hit for sure(the lack of savvy of people out there when it comes to sound insulation the builders get away with murder-i genuinely feel sorry for people) anyway that this person is talking about a house which is the consensus is wont take a hit “as bad”
Some positives -As regards the area i think semi-ds end-tcce will hold up quite well(or not get hit as bad whichever way you want to look at it) on the taking a loss stakes as its very conveniant to the city (40-60mins) and its not a kip as is made out. Its in the “general vicinity” of both metros and theres a new shopping centre and maybe ikea and maybe the new bohemians fc superstadium 8) .I take the point about worsening traffic, but you would want to see blanchardstown,swords clondalkin lucan and tallaght -thats mild! I should be an estate agent :wink: -but theres a little balance.

Well I suppose we’re all pretty much in a wait-and-see mode at the moment.

I’ll post the prices for future reference - maybe it’s one development by which we can gauge what will happen to the market in general…miju - perhaps you can do the monitoring and update as appropriate? I’ll get my hat ready for eating :wink:

Creston - Meakstown, Finglas is located on St Margaret’s Road, Dublin 11
1 bed apartments from €270,000
2 bed apartments from €320,000
2 bed + study apartments from €355,000
3 bed duplex homes from €375,000
2 bed townhouses from €370,000
3 bed townhouses from €425,000
4 bed townhouses from €450,000

I’d imagine the 3 bed duplex or townhouse here would be in or around the average house price in Dublin which is what around 380-390? thereabouts.

A rule of thumb might be 1.5 times average industrial wage of 32k is 48k, times a multiplier of 5 possibly 6 which is reasonable (not like the 9 or 10 times in bubble territory) would give a valuation of about 245-270k. I think this is the fair value of the avergae house in Dublin, and probably what we would have reached if you adjusted 2001 prices for general inflationary pressures. (ignoring the credit splurge '01 to '06)

It`ll be interested to revisit this a years to come.

Adk, I take your point about the proximity to the city and the new shopping center etc both good factors

However please bare in mind that when ballymun was developed people thought it was fantastic also, nice new shopping centre, close to town, modern way of living etc

Scum bags moved in, families move out, place fell apart. Similar thing could happen in meakstown with prices low in comparison with other areas and the ballymun regeneration on the scout for properties nearby to house people from the area.

I do agree that houses will hold up better than apartment but all will fall hard in the area. Just my 2c on the whole thing

general vicinity of the metro being a 30 min walk at best. regards the shopping centre and Ikea etc the current traffic problem around here is gonna be ten times as worse as it is now when they open :frowning: :frowning:

will keep an eye on these and keep ya’ll updated

Arthur I agree with your valuation method of 245-260 in an average normal mature area for a solid built 3-bed townhouse

Then if you consider extortionate management charges in these estates (even for the houses in some cases) over development and the probability the area will face more social problems than most. Its very hard to see these at more than 200-210.

I think it will be a long drawn out process but that’s the reality were things will have to go. Only time will tell!

:unamused: Bananaman, this is not ballymun we are talking about here! how can you draw that comparison? one is block after block of ugly 8 story buildings with council tennants no facilities and well all the problems
and meakstown area, 2-3storey which the majority owner occupier with young families etc., in alot of ways i think its a similar area to clarehall(which is more expensive) i think in comparison to say clare hall and certain other areas ive mentioned it offers better value- it will be interesting to see. on the metro theres a possibility there will be a MW stop beside charlestown shopping centre (god knows when though) and some of these trains will run to the city centre. Im concerned about traffic also, creston houses look quite nice, they have kerb appeal ill say that.

edit:Now Im not talking up the area, Im just clearing up the sh**te and the spin- there are alot of apartments for sale in the area time will tell how bad theyre hit

Its ok at the moment I accept that but im lookin at the future for the area, prices there will be lower that other areas. Ballymun regeneration will surely buy a few due to relatively cheap prices and close proximity? (its right beside one estate that’s part of the regeneration which is already quite rough)

There a good few young families owner occupiers and even more owner occupiers couples that bought small places half price under the affordable housing scheme. A few years down the road it’s hard to see how these properties will suit their needs. These people will want to sell and won’t be exposed to the full blunt of the drop in value because of the scheme they bought under.

Also its not high rise but my god are some of the developments cramped and they are up on top of one another… Hampton wood springs to mind. All it takes is a shooting & a handful of bad eggs and people will really want out. The snow ball effect starts… even more for sale signs shoot up prices can only go one way.

Although this could all be said for a lot of other developments in other parts of Dublin, I suppose only time will tell :unamused: