Overnight Lending

[Tyrannosaurus]

blogs.ft.com/money-supply/2010/1 … ised=false
blogs.ft.com/money-supply/

Rumour has it that certain European investors are no longer willing to provide Irish banks with overnight funding. If true, this could trigger the much-discussed bail-out (for it’s unlikely to end in default). A bail-out might still impose losses on bondholders, though, after recent discussions at the EU.

Until now, Ireland didn’t need any extra funding till mid-2011. Shenanigans in the secondary (resale) bond market were troubling, then, but did not need to affect the country’s cost of debt. Just as long as debt auctions took place once things had calmed down.

That reasoning assumed, however, that the Irish state would not need more cash than it had planned. Overnight funding itself might not be the problem - it is only overnight, after all - but it could trigger a liquidity crunch that sees banks come cap in hand to the government. And the government, at the moment, can ill afford to help them.

[yoganmahew]

Also on Calculated Risk:
calculatedriskblog.com/2010/ … blems.html

Ireland is fully funded until mid-2011, however I’ve heard this morning that certain European investors are no longer willing to provide Irish banks with overnight funding. This could lead to a serious liquidity problem for the Irish banks - and some investors believe that Ireland may need to borrow from the IMF or the EFSF to support the banks.

If true, and so far it is nothing but chatter, so much for fully funded…

[yoganmahew]

One bit that is wrong is that the banks will go to the government. My view is that they will have to go to the Central Bank and get ECB or Irish NCB funding as lender of last resort. Mind you, this is Ireland… they probably have to swing by the fearless vampire slayer for an IOU and a couple of stakes…

[ixus]

Whether it’s rumour or not, the problem is that the Irish government has lost all credibility. The amount of revisionism in the last couple of years makes it entirely plausible that we will run out of funding soon and that interbank lending is frozen. It just can’t be discounted.

[FAUGH45568]

Everyone thinks we have funding til mid next year i.e. the man in the street.

Well published. That in itself is a serious warning.

Theres the trigger for the bailout (overnight fudnign problems)

Personally I didnt like what I saw when the European commission President was talking in Soeul. Something is not adding up…

Pure speculation on my part

[23rdbuchan]

@FAUGH45568

Everyone thinks we have funding til mid next year i.e. the man in the street.

Well published. That in itself is a serious warning.

Theres the trigger for the bailout.

Personally I didnt like what I saw when the European commission President was talking in Soeul. Something is not adding up…

Pure speculation on my part

Care to expand on your speculation? What was being said in Seoul, etc?

[FAUGH45568]

He basically said the EU is ready to act and support ireland.

All that happens is we get the bailout, it gets interesting after that on what happens further down the line.

No bank will be allowed fail in Ireland thats the bottom line for now.

Plenty of liquidity and options to ensure it doesnt happen.

The speculation part 23rdbuchan was his body language at the end of conference having to go to a piece of paper to say he support Ireland

If he believed that, he woudnt need a piece of paper to reference to that…

[Pill]

No disrespect Faugh. The man looked at a piece of paper therefore I deduce from that there is something sinister afoot.

FFS, if countries like Greece and Latvia have been assisted by the EU then so will we if we want it (which is almost certain now).

[FAUGH45568]

Pill, what did I say… I said we will be bailed out.

That has always being my position…

I said it was pure speculation, I think we will get a twist of some kind nothign sinister, just a twist…

Argentina: IMF went in early 1990’s it took nearly 10 yrs before depositors lost their money.

[Pill]

@FAUGH45568

Pill, what did I say… I said we will be bailed out.

That has always being my position…

I said it was pure speculation, I think we will get a twist of some kind nothign sinister, just a twist…

Argentina: IMF went in early 1990’s it took nearly 10 yrs before depositors lost their money.

The twist, as you put it, may perhaps simply be that after a few year the Germans will tire of it and the Euro will break-up.