Paddy "No Firesales" Honohan

[What_Goes_Up]

More losses on the way! But Paddy won’t put a number on it. No worries though, because there will be no firesales!

Paddy “No Fireslaes” Honohan on PrimeTime last night:

rte.ie/news/av/2011/0301/primetime.html

Paddy’s track record:

The “Fill Yer Boots” call:
viewtopic.php?p=330643#p330643

The “'Tis Only A Flesh Wound” call:
viewtopic.php?p=432298#p432298

The “Manageable” call:
viewtopic.php?p=434585#p434585

[Schrodinger]

@ppcoyle on politics.ie

On 30th September 2008 Brian Lenihan announced the blanket guarantee to ‘protect financial stability’ in Ireand and on the following day Patrick Honohan gave a public lecture in TCD on the following topic

The Banking Crisis: What’s Happening and What’s It Going to Cost?SLIDE 33 of the presentation is shown below, which compares the pros and cons of different options for dealing with a bank in crisis:

https://img130.imageshack.us/img130/3522/11644435.jpg

Then on 2nd December 2008 at yet another public lecture he stated “The Irish guarantee was easily the most extravagant of the various government guarantees that were introduced in September and October when governments at last reacted in a comprehensive way to the crisis. But that doesn’t make it the best.

Indeed, my own analysis of previous crises points to unlimited guarantees and tolerance of low capital levels as policies that tend to add to the cost of crises.

Wherever in the world I have gone in recent weeks, policymakers complain that the demonstration effect of the sweeping nature of the Irish action forced their own hands into following suit–albeit with more limited guarantees that they have introduced with considerable misgiving”.

THE FINANCIAL CRISIS: IRELAND AND THE WORLD
The Michael Littleton Memorial Lecture 2008

These publically expressed views were made after the Lehman crisis had occured. In the June 2010 report on the banking crisis, published after taking up his position as Governor of the Central Bank, there is an intriguing footnote (162) that deals with the question of Anglo as a systemically important bank:

162 With the benefit of hindsight, a plausible case can be made for a more complicated policy as perhaps offering a lower net cost in the end. Thus, the whole system except Anglo could have been guaranteed, allowing the latter to close, without that implying destruction of the rest of the system. Given what we now know about the extent to which most of the final fiscal costs of the guarantee come from Anglo, on the face of it such a course would have offered savings. It would not, however, have been trouble-free. It would have earned harsh criticism from other EU countries as being a ―second Lehmans‖ imposing a destabilising spill-over effect on them, would have caused a jump in government borrowing costs and would have entailed large and arbitrary costs to Anglo creditors, including other banks, resulting in economic disruption and job losses. Since the decision makers had no inkling of the scale of the looming net deficiency in Anglo, this option – with its sizeable risks in an already volatile environment – did not seem worth considering. As such, it is of academic interest only.

This footnote when compared with his 2009 paper and 2000 empirical research could be taken to suggest that Professor Honohan may have come under political pressure to absolve the government from any wrongdoing in bringing Anglo (and Irish Nationwide?) under the protection of the blanket guarantee. The views of Professor Honohan pre and post appointment as Governor had altered somewhat with regard to his opinion on the reaction of EU countries, and the caveats expressed in June 2010 on the effect on other banks’ costs. These caveats were not put forward in his Summer 2009 paper or his earlier 2003 paper in Journal of Banking and Finance detailing his empirical research on banking crises

Controlling the fiscal costs of banking crises

esr.ie/Vol40_2/Vol-40-2-Honohan.pdf

[yoganmahew]

Unfortunately, Mr. Honohan is in the position where he has to say that everything is grand as this is the only way left of minimising the upfront cost. That it is an increasingly incredible position is a sad comment on the state of the banking system. Unfortunately the spoof element to Central Banking is well known, which sort of makes you wonder why they carry on with it - it is only the poor Joe public who is the last to know.

It will be interesting to see what happens with the new bank resolution bill - moving authority for the resolution of the banks to the ICB… perhaps they will be able to fund it too…

[Evil_g]

Was the bit where he pretty much said straight out that Anglo were lying about their losses until they realised that Anglo was going to be wound up, at which point they started to be a bit more realistic not absolutely gobsmacking?

I’m not qualified to judge Honohan’s abilities, but even after all we’ve seen, that he can say this on national television and it goes unremarked upon is insane.

Does Alan Dukes have anything to say about this?

How could the interviewer let that pass without asking if there were even a tiny chance that AIB and BOI could be taking a similar approach?

[caledonia]

@Evil_g

Was the bit where he pretty much said straight out that Anglo were lying about their losses until they realised that Anglo was going to be wound up, at which point they started to be a bit more realistic not absolutely gobsmacking?

I’m not qualified to judge Honohan’s abilities, but even after all we’ve seen, that he can say this on national television and it goes unremarked upon is insane.

Does Alan Dukes have anything to say about this?

How could the interviewer let that pass without asking if there were even a tiny chance that AIB and BOI could be taking a similar approach?

Honahan is so weak - its frankly alarming that this is the best we can do in terms of ICB governors at this crucial time.

He essentially said that all will be revealed when the new brand new set of fantastic banking consultants working on the banks loans have completed their absolutely fantastic microscopic examination at the end of the current stress test exercise. What about the previous stress test exercises you and your predecessors also presided over you muppet? And even before the exercise is complete he doesn’t believe that the situation will be anywhere as bad as Alan Dukes or other have said so he is predetermining/possibly attempting to influence the outcome.

Honahan is now simply an establishment/FF/banking muppet - can someone please get rid in a general cleanout of these establishment chancers/advisors in the banking system so we can uncover the real truth?

[FAUGH45568]

negotiation is something that will be with us for a decade or more in relation to this whole situation that we are in.

So in laymans terms another 10 yrs of austerity measures which means less money for everyone…

In relation to how much more will be put into the banks

I am not going to put a number on it and lets wait and see.

Where have I heard this before.
I am now in the bent over position

Default is not an option for Irish Society

what would you expect from a member of the ECB of governors…

[InForADime]

Blanket Guarantee - Effect on Shareholders - Good

lolz

[Homeboy]

I thought Honohan was distinctly uncomfortable and ill-at-ease during his interview.

The big question is W H Y was he so uncomfortable…???

[Puck_may_be_Famous]

@Homeboy

I thought Honohan was distinctly uncomfortable and ill-at-ease during his interview.

The big question is W H Y was he so uncomfortable…???

Because he is naturally inclined to tell the truth.

Telling bare-faced lies seems to cause him a measure of distress.

[The_Unwelcome_Guest]

Paddy likes to know what the story is…

[maryocarol]

I thought he would be a little more optimistic at some point or other, as all Banking is based on Confidence. It was good of him to go ‘on air’ and speak openly about the scale of the situation. We need more of the back room people to talk to the people instead of hiding behind closed doors. He came across as a good thoughtful person, only giving so much away. The problem of Leadership is that all leaders are open to criticism, no matter what they do, and he came out and addressed the public, which is too his credit. He is trying to lead and sort out a most difficult situation, which will be around for a decade. The issue of firesales will have to be faced sooner rather than later, postponing the day or reckoning is somewhat foolish.

[What_Goes_Up]

What kind of dystopian world have we stepped into when the Anglo Dukes is saying it’s a lot worse then reported and Paddy “No Firesale” Honohan is saying it won’t be as bad as that.

Jesus! One has had no shame up to now lying about the figures and the other has traded on his reputation for honesty.

WTF???

[mr_anderson]

@What Goes Up...

What kind of dystopian world have we stepped into when the Anglo Dukes is saying it’s a lot worse then reported and Paddy “No Firesale” Honohan is saying it won’t be as bad as that.

Jesus! One has had no shame up to now lying about the figures and the other has traded on his reputation for honesty.

WTF???

One digging up, the other digging down … and the hole getting bigger by the day.

[everybody_knows]

@What Goes Up...

What kind of dystopian world have we stepped into when the Anglo Dukes is saying it’s a lot worse then reported and Paddy “No Firesale” Honohan is saying it won’t be as bad as that.

Jesus! One has had no shame up to now lying about the figures and the other has traded on his reputation for honesty.

WTF???

I just watched the interview . He became distressed when the question of mortgage default was put to him . He called them ’ arrears ’ and again when the question of default was raised .
He seemed to be hinting that Ireland has Europe over a barrel with talk of a ’ European Lehmans ’ if Ireland had of excluded Anglo from the guarantee and this would be a advantage in future negotiations however it is only a retrospective bargaining chip , which is really more of a favour than a hard line ’ we hold all of the aces ’ .

The guy is a academic . He knows a lot more about banking and finance than I will ever know . He was not ready for the massive losses of Anglo and AIB and seems shocked that the banks have actually lied or had stopped hoping for the best , about their true losses .

He is coming from it with a academic approach rather than a hard line business approach . A pragmatic business person would be expecting the worst . In that as soon as the guarantee was intoduced they would have sent in a team of hard nosed accountants and liquidators to assess the situation and report the situation .

Unless they come out and say ( and by ’ them ’ I mean the government ) " The banks are totally fucked , we are talking 150 billion . We need to go to Europe and the IMF and say that we totally screwed and we are prepared to burn everybody " then things are never going to move forward .

To have ’ firesales ’ of the banks assets in the present situation is totally crazy . You are just admitting that one part is fucked without admitting that the whole thing is completly fucked .

[AWAAF]

@everybody knows

@What Goes Up...

What kind of dystopian world have we stepped into when the Anglo Dukes is saying it’s a lot worse then reported and Paddy “No Firesale” Honohan is saying it won’t be as bad as that.

Jesus! One has had no shame up to now lying about the figures and the other has traded on his reputation for honesty.

WTF???

He is coming from it with a academic approach rather than a hard line business approach . A pragmatic business person would be expecting the worst . In that as soon as the guarantee was intoduced they would have sent in a team of hard nosed accountants and liquidators to assess the situation and report the situation .

we haven’t seen much evidence of that sort of effective due-dlilegence from the business community in fairness!

[catbear]

@everybody knows

I just watched the interview . He became distressed when the question of mortgage default was put to him . He called them ’ arrears ’ and again when the question of default was raised .
He seemed to be hinting that Ireland has Europe over a barrel with talk of a ’ European Lehmans ’ if Ireland had of excluded Anglo .

Well Anglo is now Ireland and the US let Lehmans go… Ireland might end up in the barrel.

[Open_Window]

@What Goes Up...

What kind of dystopian world have we stepped into when the Anglo Dukes is saying it’s a lot worse then reported and Paddy “No Firesale” Honohan is saying it won’t be as bad as that.

Jesus! One has had no shame up to now lying about the figures and the other has traded on his reputation for honesty.

WTF???

Fianna Fail destroyed too… cognitive dissonance, tis worth enduring now and again.

[Open_Window]

@catbear

@everybody knows

I just watched the interview . He became distressed when the question of mortgage default was put to him . He called them ’ arrears ’ and again when the question of default was raised .
He seemed to be hinting that Ireland has Europe over a barrel with talk of a ’ European Lehmans ’ if Ireland had of excluded Anglo .

Well Anglo is now Ireland and the US let Lehmans go… Ireland might end up in the barrel.

Ireland the Lehman of Europe, now where have I heard that before

[BlameGame]

This clown actually believes his fireside chats are reassuring!

There should be a thread for Honahan’s public utterances.
“Dr Paddy’s reassuring fireside chats (at the Napalm factory)”

[FAUGH45568]

its only a matter of time before these firesales happen,

We have had the denial statement…