Paddy Power odds at 10/1 for house price recovery this year

I can’t find any details on the Paddy Power website though.

What a fucking country…

I’m not a gambling man, but doesn’t 10/1 translate as not f*cking likely at all? I mean you might throw €50 at Monaghan to win the All Ireland if you were from Monaghan, but you certainly wouldn’t stake tens of billions on it.

Oh but they have, have they wha!

They’re shit odds. 10-1. I’d be expecting 20-1 at least for a turn around this quarter if they’re looking to tempt a few suckers.

+1

Given the (approx.) 6 month lag with PTSB index, to record a turnaround this quarter it would probably need to have happened in Q1 or earlier

They talk about odds like they are handed to them from some unknown gambling deity.

Paddy Power have made these odds up based on their own analysis, obviously with a fair whack of overround. I doubt they produce their odds on these things based on betting volumes ie using market sentiment.

Of course teh whole thing is just another pr exercise, a few lines in the paper for Paddy Power.

I’d like to be able to lay some of those bets. I have €100 maturing as soon as the next PTSB survey comes out, courtesy of an overly optimistic homeowner.

Not those odds I like. Your friend should open a bookies, although they mightn’t last too long being so generous :slight_smile:

Well if you were thinking of buying a house for about 500k at the moment coz you think we’re at bottom you should go down to paddy power and stick 50k to 250k on this recovery seen as your willing to gamble that much of your money on buying now anyway, at least you get 10-1 with paddy power, if you gamble by buying a property then the best you can hope for is to keep your money.

I’ve got €20 on at 5/1 on “Over 15% Decline in Irish House prices in 2010” since January.

Don’t see any property-related bets available at the moment though.

Paddy Power won’t take large bets. They just want people having a bit of fun - losers.

They certainly won’t take large wagers on novelty bets. Typically, they allow maximum exposure of a couple of grand on these. You can fully hedge residential property positions in the UK on IG Index. Doesn’t exist in Ireland, as far as I know.

Hmmm… I never bet on sports 'cos I’m not interested (in watching other people playing sports). I’ve won on Mary Robinson, Barack Obama for Dem candididate and Pres, and likely on 15% decrease in house prices. I lost once (on BO to take a particular primary). Gambler? No. Loser? not so far. Novelty bets are handy pocket money.

Anyone pick up their 2010 price change winnings? :angry:

No - dunno what the official figure is - or what PP uses - I have heard 12% (umm - dunno where) and 14% (DAFT) so it looks like I missed out - guess I can’t argue that the real selling prices are actually lower than the reported prices… :frowning:

I’m sure the bet was based on TSB house price index, the one that the esteemed ERSI copies its homework off. Their report is quarterly but is due out soon. Have they had enough deals to match fairly to previous reports, that may be a contentious point to argue with PP.

What a crock of shit. Define “recovery”.
We’ve been hearing some vested interests, claiming there are signs of recovery, 6 months ago, 12 months ago and 18 months ago.
Recovery to me is being able to afford a decent family home without chaining myself to a soul destroying mortgage.
Something like my parents handled. (Father had 8 kids, Mum didn’t work but he was able to afford a 3 bed house and take us to Bundoran the odd weekend 8DD )

Yes I also remember this bet defined in terms of the ptsb/esri hpix. This index won’t be published for another two weeks yet my bet is already shown as settled on their website.

I have 30 quid on >15%

Good man Mr.Agent, assuming when you say settled that it was in your favour.
Any sign of Mr Ghosh. I’s sooner take economic advice from podge and rodge than these fools.

I had €20 at 5/1 for >15% placed Jan 3rd 2010 but mine is shown as “lost” - would be very interested if they have paid out on yours!

They seem to have decided this on 6th of JUNE??