Paddypowers odds on house falls and completions

How much will the average house price change for 2008?
22 April

No Change 	        25 - 1
Any Increase 	      8 - 1
0.01% - 3% Decline 	6 - 1
3.01% - 5% Decline 	5 - 1
5.01% - 7% Decline 	4 - 1
7.01% - 9% Decline 	3 - 1
Over 9% Decline 	   6 - 5 

How many House completions will there be for 2008?
30 April

40,001 - 50,000 	 9 - 4
30,001 - 40,000 	11 - 4
50,001 - 60,000 	10 - 3
Under 30,000 	    7 - 2
60,001 - 70,000 	11 - 2
70,001 or more  	13 - 2 

Over 9% fall was at 4-1 when that book opened.

The bookies never get this stuff wrong. The vicious logic of the market dictates that.

A few years ago the Neocons in the US thought about opening a book on posible future terrorist attacks. At first, the idea seemed disgusting and gruesome to me, but after thinking about it, it actually struck me as a genius idea. The spread as dicatetd by where the smart money is flowing is the best way of predicting the way the wind will be blowing.

Now, Paddy Power isn’t quite that sophicstcated, but if I had a house, and based on these prices alone, I’d let it all ride on a minimum 9% decline this year.

40-50k completions is a nailed on cert on the starts data. Get on at 9/4 - your buying money!!!

I think under 30k could be a good bet. There was an exclusive in the Sindo at the weekend shwing that house starts have colapsed to 1k a month since autumn and that even the CIF now think completions this year will be under 30k.

9 to 12 month lead from starts to completions though…H1 08 will still have loads of completions. H2 might be down to 9K or so.

Completions will be definitely be between 30k and 50k. PP are offering about 5/4 if you split 100 euro bet 45 on 30-40k and 55 on 40-50k.

That is great value. Get on it now.