There’s a decent book called “The Hot Zone” that describes the emergence of these filoviruses.
Scary stuff, but they burn themselves out relatively quickly because they’re so devastating to the host.
Another parallel with the first world war? Ebola epidemic to mirror flu epodemic?
We can add this to US banking crisis of 1907, the weakening of the old economic order and increasing geo-political instability and tensions.
Putin has the cut of a deluded megalomaniac in my book and that scares the pants off me.
There was an Irish doctor off to work with MSF at the epicentre talking to PK today. He pointed out the lack of air-bourne transmission as a key factor likely to limit significant development. The main factor at the moment seems to be (from what he was saying) people staying in their villages for too long after infection. He also said that MSF had just completed a specialised facility to treat cases (mainly palliative care although there are survivors). While you couldn’t rule out an infected person getting on a plane it seemed not all that likely and in any case wouldn’t result in immediate transmission. He made it sound to me like they will eventually get on top of this outbreak.
Caveat: All of that is based on limited fore-knowledge on my part and taking what he said at face value
This has the possibility of becoming a first world problem very quickly… Who even makes decisions about closing down incoming flights from these countries? Is it an Eu decision, I’d rather be safe than sitting in my hallway with a shotgun and a box of cartridges prepared to shoot the first poor bastard who can’t read the stay off my property sign writ large on a sign at the gate, I really hope we don’t have some tribunal 7 years from now where everyone sits round ringing their hAnds and wailing about how this should never happen again.
The reality is that the developed “west” will contain the virus quite easily if and when it arrives here. The real problem is Lagos. If it gets established in that mega city, it could cause chaos and months of massive deaths. Lagos is also one of Africa’s best connected cities, with 7m plus passengers moving through its airport each year. And you cant seal a city of 20m plus.
I’m inclined to think that it’ll be brought under control fairly quickly. A 21-day lockdown in an affected area should completely end an out-break. If it gets a hold in Lagos then all bets are off.
This end note was of much interest in what is a deeply personal blog account by those very close to those helping others who have also now also succumb themselves.
