'Peak Oil' far, far away


#2808

A passive solar house is not the same as a passive house. Here’s a couple of links if you’re interested in learning the difference.
passivehouseplus.ie/articles/pa … olar-house

builderonline.com/videos/pas … sive-house


#2809

Mazda are’t the only ones with new engines in the works, Achates also claim a 30% improvement

I still favour pure electric myself but any increase in efficiency can only be a good thing

achatespower.com/


#2810

Doesnt making it leaner increase Nox? Nox is worse than Co2 imo


#2811

I believe raising the temp (which it does for lean burn) does that


#2812

Afaik it’s not just raising the temperature, but the fact that a diesel injects fuel near the end of the compression stroke when the air is already superheated in order to control ignition timing. This means a flame front has to spread from the contact surface to the rest of the fuel charge. The new engines are “homogeneous charge” – the air and fuel are already mixed before compression so that the fuel burns evenly and completely. The challenge has been to control the timing of ignition and avoid knocking. This is done by controlling both leanness and temperature of the inputs on a cycle-by-cycle basis by techniques such as exhaust gas recirculation. (I’m just parrotting Google on HCCI here).


#2813

OPEC have definitively lost their bet on maintaining market share. Even with shale growth slowing, the US is going to provide most of the increased supply over the next few years. And OPEC will have to continue to curb output for years to come if they hope to maintain $50-$60 prices, according to ESAI 5-year outlook.


#2814

China’s 2020 solar target has just been achieved.

euractiv.com/section/energy/news/china-eclipses-europe-as-2020-solar-power-target-is-smashed/

Phenomenal achievement.
Undoubtedly, they are the first of many.
If the speed of this solar target is anything to go by, oil is going nowhere ever again (unless a serious war breaks out).


#2815

Impressive, yes. BUT … as far as I can see from a quick perusal, all that Chinese solar has a capacity factor of about 10%, compared to 40% for its coal and 60% for its nukes. Bottom line is solar is still providing only 1% of actual power generated. Fine, if it it continues to grow exponentially it will become significant before long. But it has doubled each of the last couple of years and is set for only a 50% increase this year. That’s still phenomenal, but the question is where does the growth curve top out. Will it still be growing at 50% when the nameplate capacity is 1 TW (at which stage it will still be providing less than 10% of output) ?


#2816

I don’t think the growth curve has topped out at all.
If anything, we’re just at the beginning phase, proven by the continued drop in cost.
This is an industry in it’s infancy.

I think what you’re going to see is solar supplying all the ***additional ***demand.
Nuke & coal powered fire stations will run their natural course.
They have decades of operation remaining.
Too costly to mothball.
However, renewables will replace them.


#2817

Agreed. But it will take fifty to one hundred years. Your great grandchildren will see it.


#2818

We are only waiting for a breakthrough in electeic power storage at this point.
Once it happens it will be exponential change in the power supply network.

Shale gas regulation happened from upgrading existing technigies and tecnhiques maybe electric storage can do the same.

So I expect to see ia major switchover within 20 years especially in countries with lots of land and sun.

Some states in the US regularly give away their extra solar power for free at the moment !


#2819

Electro-chemical power storage has been around for more than two centuries. At this stage we are only tweaking around the edges, so I am dubious of a major breakthrough. All the other ways we know involve combustion, heat engines, and an inefficient steam cycle. I think it is unduly optimistic to expect a revolution in utility scale storage. It may be that some synergy between the grid and domestic storage in the form of EV batteries and/or PowerWalls will bring about a dramatic change, and that it turns out we don’t need any radical new invention after all. Otherwise I think intermittency will continue to be the Achille’s heel of renewables.


#2820

It may be nothing to do with Peak Oil, but certainly the peak of oil’s ability to maintain the House of Saud’s customary lifestyle – they’re even selling off the Hajj pilgrimage ! …


#2821

A major element in the “peak oil” conundrum, was either** to leave oil before oil leaves us** or continue until we have a real oil crisis.
Fortunately, it appears that legislators have picked the former and if successful, the whole peak oil “crisis” will be averted.


#2822

arstechnica.com/science/2017/09/solar-now-costs-6-per-kilowatt-hour-beating-government-goal-by-3-years/?comments=1&start=40


#2823

Oil demand continues to set records. The IEA has revised demand growth upward to 1.6 mbpd for this year – it was running at 2.3 mbpd in the second quarter but is expected to take a hit due to hurricane season. The estimated global oil demand for 2017 is now 97.7 million barrels per day, and forecast to be 99.1 mbpd in 2018. That will certainly mean that we exceed the symbolic 100 mbpd mark at some stage in 2018 and will probably exceed it on average in 2019. I wonder how long before the EV optimists stop predicting that oil use will be lower in 2025 than in 2015.


#2824

Got a taxi back home from the Airport last week, and there actually a Nissan Leaf with a Dublin Taxi sign in the queue.
Only realised when I already had the bags loaded into the taxi i was taking.

I was quite surprised to be honest. Not sure how many kilometres your standard taxi does per shift, and how much downtime (for re-charging) one would need to account for.
But I thought it would be challenging to make ends meet nevertheless.


#2825

I have seen 2 Leaf taxis in Dublin, I assume the drivers stop for lunch while the car charges, since the public chargers are free my guess is its worth it for now, expect to see more EV taxis once the 200 mile cars arrive

There was a Leaf being used as a taxi in Cork and I think the driver was pissing off other EV drivers by hogging the fast chargers, this is why most EV drivers want to pay for public charging, it cuts down on people who don’t really need the chargers blocking them

In 2025 maybe :smiley:

Have a little patience, the cars that will cut demand are only really hitting the market now, the Model 3 is only being produced at a rate of a few hundred a week, but next year it should be 10K a week, and then we have to wait for the others to produce their own versions of the Model 3


#2826

Taxi rates are roughly €1.50 per km in Dublin and I think it would be fair to assume that a taxi has a fare 60% of the distance it drives? I’d have no idea what turnover a taxi driver needs as a minimum but probably €200-250 per day? That would require a total of 220-270km of driving. The overnight charge would cover 120km, and then a couple of quick charges during the off peak period or during breaks.

It would make sense if the driver was guaranteed a fast charge spot during his breaks or even while parked at a rank.


#2827

… which, even in an efficient diesel, would clock up to about €5k in a year. You can see the attraction. Urban fleet vehicles have always been the first target for conversions like LPG and CNG because of the economy of scale. With EVs it’ll be the lighter duty vehicles like taxis.