'Peak Oil' far, far away


#2828

I’d be more interested in the bus fleet going electric, given the amount of shite that comes out of their exhausts.

20 September 2017 An electric bus has broken a world record by travelling more than 1,000 miles on a single charge.
The battery used for the journey had 660kWh of energy storage capacity.
bbc.com/news/technology-41333063


#2829

It looks like you’re not familiar with the Jevons paradox.

Technological advances in efficiency don’t usually cause reductions in fossil fuel use. Quite the opposite.


#2830

The paradox only works if you make more efficient use of the fuel, with EVs you’re substituting the fuel completely.
For every ICE vehicle that is replaced by an EV, that’s one less FF consuming vehicle on the road.

More energy will be diverted to electrical power generation, but this is increasingly being generated by renewables as well as increasing reliance on FF energy.


#2831

RTE Prime Time just did a big article on EVs. Minister Denis Naughten was not very convincing about the impact and longevity of the €5k EV subsidy, the €5k VRT write-off, the road tax subsidies, the fuel tax foregone, the free charging points and the cost of building and maintaining more, and even the prospect of free road tolls which is being mooted for the budget. According to Prime Time the exchequer hit could run to many billions. Naughten did some vague handwaving about vehicle prices and subsidies coming down and anyway if we don’t do this the EU fines we’ll have to pay will be even worse. That sounds ominously like not much carrot and a lot of stick. Anyway, per Naughten, we’d have to “have a discussion” about how to raise taxes in the future. We better have it soon or else we should be thankful that Greenie Ryan’s 2008 projection of 200,000 EVs on the streets by 2020 looks set to miss the target by about 90%.


#2832

So you now think people will start to buy EVs ?

The whole country changing to EVs over the next 13 years or so would be a good thing, even if it does mean some changes to the tax system to make up for the falling tax take from Petrol/Diesel


#2833

Okay so in 2013 Ireland consumed 139K barrels of oil a day which is 50.7M per year which is 8.07B Litres/year which at €0.72 (diesel) tax per litre means the State gets ~€6B per year from taxing oil is was 10% of the tax take that year. Most oil is used in transport so if EVs replace ICEs where is this revenue going to be made up? Tax electricity more?

A gallon of oil produces 33.41Kwh. A Barrel contains ~35Gallons * 139K Barrels/day = 162M Kwh/day of extra electricity that will have to be produced to replace ICEs. This doesn’t include losses due to transmission. I haven’t seen any great electric generation plans being rolled out?


#2834

Thank you tulip :exclamation:

Too many people think the numbers are an unnecessary detail.

To mention a few more: Ireland uses 14.6 mtoe (million tonnes of oil equivalent) in primary energy, of which all but 1.9 mtoe is imported. 47% of that is actual oil, and 70% of the oil is used for transport. That is 4.8 mtoe, which equates to 56 TWh. Our total current electricity generation is 27 TWh. (Sources: IEA Key World Energy Statistics 2017, ireland2050.ie)

Anyone who thinks we are going to triple electricity production in ten, twenty, or even thirty years is nuts. At the moment we add about 20% additional capacity every decade, but that’s to cater for ordinary electricity demand increase.


#2835

Again this is a good problem to have, its not going to happen in one year, it will be slow change that we can slowly adapt to, imagine all the smokers in the country stopped smoking, true it would be bad for government revenue but would clearly be a good thing

Your numbers are fine, but its not the whole story, you are right to mention transmission losses but for some reason you assume that the ICE gets 100% of each 33.41kWh per gallon to the wheels, factor in the far better efficiency of EVs and its not as bad as you think, the Model 3 has a MPG equivalent of 126MPG (US gallon) also most charging will happen at night and a large EV fleet allows for the grid to use their batteries as storage, there is a huge upside for us to make the switch to EVs

My guess is we will get the electricity from wind on and offshore and Natural gas, maybe we have some tidal potential


#2836

Yes but if the electricity comes from fossil fuels it is as bad as you think. The well-to-wheels efficiency is about the same as burning it in an ICE.

We already have one of the highest wind energy penetration values in the world, at 25% of generated power. Tidal will always be a negligible resource.


#2837

plenty of studies have been done on this, even if we had a grid 100% powered by Coal, EVs would be better, but I doubt we will still burning Coal for electricity in 2030, and Natural gas is far cleaner than Coal

We can go far higher than 25% wind if we have a large fleet of EVs, expect the 2030 grid to be very different to what we have today


#2838

The one certain thing it that the government must plan to increase electricity generation soon, otherwise there will be the risk of EVs coming on line faster than the electrical capacity can be ramped up, leading to potential shortages and severe embarrassment within the government.


#2839

FTFY :wink:

(although Irish governments don’t really do embarrassment)

And on a less frivolous note, there is a chicken and egg situation here. How much money do you spend on generating and charging infrastructure in anticipation of take up? According to Prime Time the ESB has already spent €30m on charging points, with ongoing costs of €4m/yr.


#2840

They’ll probably wait until the network starts to show signs of stress from all the vehicles charging up overnight in the winter before acting.


#2841

If they’re clever about it they won’t try to make money from the public charging network, most people buying 200 mile EVs will only need to use the public chargers a few times a year, some will never need to use it, but few people would buy any EV with out public charging

Over the life of an EV it may be that the electricity generators make more profit from the car’s than manufactures that built it


#2842

For me with my current (pun intended) driving habits mean that I would never need to use a public charging station as almost all the journeys I do are far less than the range of the present generation of EVs. For the remaining long distance journeys, I would hire something.

Just that they’re out of my price range, otherwise I would already have one.


#2843

Good second hand Leafs are falling in price and there should be great value when the gen 2 Leaf arrives, thats when I might buy one


#2844

Was going to put this in the sloppy journalism thread, but it’s deliberate clickbait from the indo.independent.ie/irish-news/investigation-launched-after-odourless-gas-leak-forced-thousands-in-galway-and-mayo-to-switch-off-supply-36161177.html

Is this about radon? how did the gas leak into the homes?

Irish Times version:


#2845

Natural gas does not have a smell, therefore it would be impossible to know if you have a leak or not. So a smell is added at the distribution centre, not having the smell added means that there is a potential risk of a leak going unnoticed.


#2846

Yes, I know. But there was no leak, despite the sensationalist headlines. “Distribution centre neglects to add smell to Natural Gas” won’t get the pot stirred.


#2847

Brent hit a two year high yesterday, nudging the $60 mark. Yesterday’s overwhelming “Yes” vote in the unofficial Kurdish independence referendum is a small factor, with Turkey threatening to shutdown the pipeline from northern Iraq to the Med. But mainly it is that supply is finally starting to tighten, the US rig count stopped increasing a couple of months ago and globally there has been a $2 trillion reduction in investment for the future over the last few years. Plus demand growth is still robust. Governments hoping for inflation may see some of the wrong sort over the next while. :nin